April 19, 2008

New York Rangers @ New Jersey

Game 1:11.590.043.093.3
Game 2:12.292.322.695.5
Game 3:43.585.032.088.6
Game 4:31.591.354.680.0
Game 5:32.488.253.487.5
Series [1-4]1211.189.71915.689.2

This series may be one of the closest series and the best part there is a game at 3:00 PM eastern time for home ice advantage (this game might be more important than game 1...). This probably isn't going to be the most interesting series, as both teams are defensively responsible. However, these teams are so evenly matched that anything could happen. The Rangers haven't lost a game against the Devils all year, but I expect New Jersey to win home ice this afternoon. You don't find two more evenly matched teams very often.

Even Strength
Power Play

The winner column displays the dominant team in that category. The more pictures of the team's logo the more dominant the team is in that category

All the non-percentage numbers are scoring rates. For example on the first row, the New Jersey Devils have an even strength scoring rate of 2.18 goal for per hour. [GF = goals for, GA = goals against Exx = expected xx, SV% = shot quality neutral save percentage].

In the power play section in order to calculate the expected scoring rates I multiplied the goals for rate of one team and the goals against rate of the other and divide by the league average in order to get the expected rate for these two teams combined. So for example, the New Jersey Devils have a power play goals for rate of 5.66 and the New York Rangers have a penalty killing goals against rate of 5.88. So 5.66*5.88/6.5=5.12 [league average is 6.5].

Outperforming expected goals for is a sign of a lucky team. Outperforming expected goals against is a sign of either a good goaltender or luck as well.

Each category listed has a different importance to winning, so be careful how you read these. Being able to score short-handed isn't going to win a lot of hockey games.

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