April 20, 2008

Dallas @ Anaheim

So, both conference champs bow out early...

Game 1:01.691.144.4100
Game 2:21.589.854.886.9
Game 3:41.591.822.473.9
Game 4:11.586.632.293.5
Game 5:55.493.723.192.7
Game 6:11.084.541.990.2
Series [2-4]1312.590.12018.890.6

Any divisional match up is interesting to say the least. If you look at the season series you might get the impression that this is Dallas' series to lose. However, Dallas has had such a terrible March it's hard to imagine them turning it around. For those who may have forgotten Dallas still has Turco in net who has won one playoff series in 5 opportunities. The special teams should be quiet for both teams, but Anaheim is much better at 5 on 5. Keep in mind that Anaheim is +23 since the new year.

Even Strength
Power Play

The winner column displays the dominant team in that category. The more pictures of the team's logo the more dominant the team is in that category

All the non-percentage numbers are scoring rates. For example on the first row, the Anaheim Ducks have an even strength scoring rate of 2.07 goal for per hour. [GF = goals for, GA = goals against Exx = expected xx, SV% = shot quality neutral save percentage].

In the power play section in order to calculate the expected scoring rates I multiplied the goals for rate of one team and the goals against rate of the other and divide by the league average in order to get the expected rate for these two teams combined. So for example, the Anaheim Ducks have a power play goals for rate of 6.53 and the Dallas Stars have a penalty killing goals against rate of 5.13. So 6.53*5.13/6.5=5.15 [league average is 6.5].

Outperforming expected goals for is a sign of a lucky team. Outperforming expected goals against is a sign of either a good goaltender or luck as well.

Each category listed has a different importance to winning, so be careful how you read these. Being able to score short-handed isn't going to win a lot of hockey games.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Both Montreal and Dallas are two playoff teams that have outperformed their expected goals this season.

Do you think that this is purely indicative of both teams being the recipients of good puck luck, or could it also (partly) be a result of the playing styles that these teams employ?

For example, in Montreal's case, the discrepancy between GF and EGF is mostly confined to their powerplay...