September 14, 2008

Boston Bruins

Public opinion in general has a strong sense that Boston will be better or at least as good as last year. Over 60% of the general public thinks they are a playoff capable team.

The falconer asked: Any comments on why Boston falls so hard in your East projections?
My predictions suggest that Boston will loose 14 points over last year taking them from a competitive 94 points to a paltry 80 points.

Here are my reasons why:
Last year Boston scored 212 goals for 3rd worst in the East. They were successful at preventing goals thanks to some great defense and goaltending. You can calculate how many points Boston should have had given their goals for and against using the Pythagorean expectation or 2122/(2122+2222) = 0.477. Multiply that by 82 games and 2 points per game and add on the 10 bonus OTL games (average): 82*2*0.477 + 10 = 88.2 or 88. The main point here is Boston gained about 6 points from what I would consider is mostly luck.

Last season Boston was predicted to be either 14th or 15th in the East depending on who you asked. Not much has changed since then and yet they've gone from a complete disaster to a competitive team?

Now what has changed since last year
Glen Murray is out.
Metropolit is out.
Auld is out, Fernandez is out.
Rask is backup.
Michael Ryder is in.

For the most part Ryder replaced Murray's offense.
However the team has lost Metropolit as well (who is a good depth scoring player)
Since Savard & Sturm had less than stellar starts to their careers their career point averages are lower than maybe we would expect them to be in the upcoming season. This means I've likely underestimated Boston's offense.

Either way, Boston will have difficulty scoring goals and will need amazing defense and goaltending to make the playoffs. 80 points might be a low predictions, but 95 points would be too high for sure.

It's amazing how things change in one year.

September 4, 2008

Popular opinion Standings...

Courtesy of James Mirtle, I have a teams predicted standings based on the average Jamed Mirtle's readers opinion. You can see both the west coast and east coast polls.

A few interesting notes:
West: Nashville & Colorado made the playoffs last year (Vancouver close behind) none of which are even close to 30%. I'm a little surprised to see Vancouver so unpopular. Edmonton seems to have made some major strides, but I'm not sure they've come far enough yet. We'll of course find out shortly. Almost everyone thinks Detroit will make the playoffs.

East: Boston??? Ok I don't keep up enough with the east. I have nothing to say.

August 29, 2008

Predicted Standings for 2008-2009

Based on the expected offense from the tables presented in the other posts, this would be the expected standings. There seems to be a lot of volatility in the east, but the west appears to be business as usual (changes smaller than 10 are not really that significant)
Western Standings
1Detroit Red Wings115113-2
2Anaheim Ducks102101-1
3San Jose Sharks10798-9
4Vancouver Canucks88946
5Dallas Stars9794-3
6Colorado Avalanche9593-2
7Calgary Flames9490-4
8Minnesota Wild9889-9
9Chicago Blackhawks88891
10Edmonton Oilers88880
11Nashville Predators9185-6
12St. Louis Blues79790
13Phoenix Coyotes8379-4
14Columbus Blue Jackets8078-2
15Los Angeles Kings71721

Eastern Standings
1Washington Capitals9411622
2Pittsburgh Penguins1021086
3Montreal Canadiens1041040
4New Jersey Devils991012
5New York Rangers97981
6Buffalo Sabres90977
7Tampa Bay Lightning719423
8Ottawa Senators9493-1
9Florida Panthers85894
10Philadelphia Flyers9588-7
11Carolina Hurricanes9288-4
12Boston Bruins9480-14
13Toronto Maple Leafs8380-3
14Atlanta Thrashers76771
15New York Islanders7976-3

I think it's worth saying I'm not very satisfied with the results, but I like the method. There are a few things I still need to work out, especially in terms of Crosby and Ovechkin's offense. I also need to look at Tampa a little bit closer ( they are expected to score 300 GF - a little bit unrealistic).

August 8, 2008

Southeast Expecations

Atlanta ThrashersGFGA
Ilya Kovalchuk [0.95]Vyacheslav Kozlov [0.62]Todd White [0.52]6946
Colby Armstrong [0.49]Jason Williams [0.47]Robert Holik [0.41]4538
Eric Perrin [0.40]Erik Christensen [0.39]Marty Reasoner [0.35]3721
Bryan Little [0.28]Jim Slater [0.21]Chris Thorburn [0.17]2216
Tobias Enstrom [0.39]Ron Hainsey [0.31]2329
Niclas Havelid [0.23]Ken Klee [0.14]1227
Garnet Exelby [0.11]??? [~0.05]519
PK: 62
Lehtonen: -18
Hedberg: 8

Carolina HurricanesGFGA
Eric Staal [0.83]Ray Whitney [0.68]Sergei Samsonov [0.66]7144
Justin Williams [0.62]Rod Brind'amour [0.60]Matt Cullen [0.48]5634
Tuomo Ruutu [0.44]Scott Walker [0.42]Patrick Eaves [0.38]4117
Chad Larose [0.23]Ryan Bayda [0.21]??? [~0.0.08]1713
Joni Pitkanen [0.47]Joseph Corvo [0.42]2932
Frantisek Kaberle [0.32]Dennis Seidenberg [0.20]1722
Tim Gleason [0.17]Tim Conboy [0.15]1015
PK: 59
Ward: 19
Backup: 5

Florida PanthersGFGA
Nathan Horton [0.62]Cory Stillman [0.61]Richard Zednik [0.49]5645
Radek Dvorak [0.48]Stephen Weiss [0.47]Brett Mclean [0.42]4538
Rostislav Olesz [0.39]David Booth [0.35]Ville Peltonen [0.32]3521
Chad Kilger [0.28]Kamil Kreps [0.24]Gregory Campbell [0.13]2115
Jay Bouwmeester [0.38]Keith Ballard [0.33]2335
Mike Van ryn [0.32]Cory Murphy [0.27]1928
Nicholas Boynton [0.22]Karlis Skrastins [0.13]1117
PK: 61
Vokoun: -37
Anderson: -17

Tampa Bay LightningGFGA
Vincent Lecavalier [0.81]Martin St. louis [0.81]Mark Recchi [0.70]7643
Vaclav Prospal [0.66]Jussi Jokinen [0.56]Michel Ouellet [0.56]5828
Gary Roberts [0.54]Ryan Malone [0.53]Chris Gratton [0.50]5119
Radim Vrbata [0.49]Jeff Halpern [0.44]Brandon Bochenski [0.38]4313
Filip Kuba [0.37]Matthew Carle [0.35]2425
Paul Ranger [0.32]Alexandre Picard [0.25]1921
Shane O'brien [0.19]Mike Lundin [0.04]814
PK: 59
Kolzig: 22
Ramo: 17

Washington CapitalsGFGA
Alexander Ovechkin [1.31]Nicklas Backstrom [0.82]Sergei Fedorov [0.70]9332
Alexander Semin [0.67]Michael Nylander [0.66]Viktor Kozlov [0.56]6232
Chris Clark [0.35]Brooks Laich [0.31]Tomas Fleischmann [0.28]3120
Boyd Gordon [0.21]Keith Aucoin [0.21]Donald Brashear [0.18]2010
Mike Green [0.42]Tom Poti [0.39]2726
Brian Pothier [0.30]Jeff Schultz [0.16]1521
Shaone Morrisonn [0.14]Milan Jurcina [0.13]913
PK: 58
Theodore: -26
Johnson: -4

Northeast Expectations

Boston BruinsGFGA
Marc Savard [0.84]Michael Ryder [0.60]Marco Sturm [0.51]6441
Peter Schaefer [0.43]Phil Kessel [0.43]David Krejci [0.42]4230
Chuck Kobasew [0.32]Per johan Axelsson [0.32]Milan Lucic [0.31]3119
Petteri Nokelainen [0.14]Vladimir Sobotka [0.12]Jeremy Reich [0.03]1011
Zdeno Chara [0.36]Dennis Wideman [0.34]2328
Andrew Ference [0.24]Matt Lashoff [0.16]1327
Aaron Ward [0.14]Shane Hnidy [0.10]815
PK: 61
Thomas: -15
Backup: 5

Buffalo SabresGFGA
Jason Pominville [0.72]Derek Roy [0.71]Thomas Vanek [0.71]7043
Jochen Hecht [0.59]Drew Stafford [0.58]Maxim Afinogenov [0.56]5734
Tim Connolly [0.53]Ales Kotalik [0.52]Daniel Paille [0.35]4620
Paul Gaustad [0.32]Clarke Macarthur [0.31]Mathieu Darche [0.19]2713
Jaroslav Spacek [0.35]Toni Lydman [0.28]2133
Craig Rivet [0.25]Nathan Paetsch [0.23]1621
Henrik Tallinder [0.22]Andrej Sekera [0.15]1216
PK: 59
Miller: -7
Lalime: 1

Montreal CanadiensGFGA
Alex Tanguay [0.81]Saku Koivu [0.79]Alex Kovalev [0.71]7639
Tomas Plekanec [0.58]Andrei Kastsitsyn [0.53]Christopher Higgins [0.52]5333
Siarhei Kastsitsyn [0.50]Guillaume Latendresse [0.34]Tom Kostopoulos [0.25]3619
Maxim Lapierre [0.24]Kyle Chipchura [0.23]Georges Laraque [0.21]2213
Andrei Markov [0.49]Roman Hamrlik [0.42]3032
Mathieu Dandenault [0.21]Francis Bouillon [0.20]1324
Michael Komisarek [0.13]Ryan O'byrne [0.12]818
PK: 61
Price: -39
Denis: 7

Ottawa SenatorsGFGA
Dany Heatley [1.05]Jason Spezza [1.01]Daniel Alfredsson [0.85]9543
Mike Fisher [0.46]Antoine Vermette [0.40]Dean Mcammond [0.40]4133
Chris Kelly [0.35]Shean Donovan [0.25]Christopher Neil [0.23]2720
Jarkko Ruutu [0.17]Nick Foligno [0.15]Cody Bass [0.12]1412
Andrej Meszaros [0.42]Chris Phillips [0.23]2131
Christoph Schubert [0.21]Anton Volchenkov [0.21]1424
Jason Smith [0.15]??? [~0.05]719
PK: 60
Gerber: -15
Auld: -8

Toronto Maple LeafsGFGA
Nikolai Antropov [0.49]Alexander Steen [0.48]Jason Blake [0.48]4839
Alexei Ponikarovsky [0.41]Matthew Stajan [0.37]Mark Bell [0.37]3832
Bates (jon) Battaglia [0.33]Niklas Hagman [0.31]Boyd Devereaux [0.26]3023
Jamal Mayers [0.25]Jiri Tlusty [0.23]Mikhail Grabovski [0.22]2314
Tomas Kaberle [0.54]Bryan Mccabe [0.44]3232
Pavel Kubina [0.37]Ian White [0.27]2123
Carlo Colaiacovo [0.26]Jeff Finger [0.21]1518
PK: 64
Toskala: -3
Backup: 5

Atlantic Expectations

New Jersey DevilsGFGA
Patrik Elias [0.82]Zach Parise [0.61]Brian Gionta [0.60]6736
Jamie Langenbrunner [0.57]Brian Rolston [0.55]Dainius Zubrus [0.48]5231
Travis Zajac [0.41]John Madden [0.36]Jay Pandolfo [0.27]3418
David Clarkson [0.22]Michael Rupp [0.15]Rodney Pelley [0.05]1412
Paul Martin [0.36]John Oduya [0.20]1827
Mike Mottau [0.16]Andrew Greene [0.15]1023
Colin (john) White [0.15]Sheldon Brookbank [0.13]916
PK: 61
Brodeur: -33
Backup: 5

New York IslandersGFGA
Mike Comrie [0.61]Bill Guerin [0.48]Trent Hunter [0.46]5140
Michael Sillinger [0.37]Andy Hilbert [0.28]Richard Park [0.28]3131
Blake Comeau [0.23]Sean Bergenheim [0.22]Jeff Tambellini [0.16]2019
Frans Nielsen [0.09]Tim Jackman [0.06]Jeremy Colliton [0.02]611
Mark Streit [0.47]Chris Campoli [0.33]2629
Frederick Meyer iv [0.23]Andy Sutton [0.21]1420
Radek Martinek [0.20]Bruno Gervais [0.16]1216
PK: 57
Dipietro: 7
Backup: 5

New York RangersGFGA
Scott Gomez [0.78]Chris Drury [0.70]Markus Naslund [0.69]7136
Nikolai Zherdev [0.59]Brandon Dubinsky [0.46]Petr Prucha [0.42]4826
Nigel Dawes [0.35]Dan Fritsche [0.27]Ryan Callahan [0.24]2817
Fredrik Sjostrom [0.23]Patrick Rissmiller [0.21]Aaron Voros [0.19]2112
Wade Redden [0.47]Paul Mara [0.35]2729
Michal Rozsival [0.34]Dmitri Kalinin [0.28]2023
Daniel Girardi [0.23]Marc Staal [0.11]1113
PK: 57
Lundqvist: -4
Valiquette: 1

Philadelphia FlyersGFGA
Daniel Briere [0.77]Simon Gagne [0.71]Mike Richards [0.61]6950
Jeff Carter [0.53]Joffrey Lupul [0.52]Scott Hartnell [0.46]5039
Sami Kapanen [0.46]Michael Knuble [0.44]Scottie Upshall [0.40]4319
Glen Metropolit [0.34]Steve Downie [0.27]Arron Asham [0.24]2812
Kimmo Timonen [0.50]Braydon Coburn [0.31]2732
Randy Jones [0.30]Derian Hatcher [0.26]1828
Steve Eminger [0.17]Lasse Kukkonen [0.11]915
PK: 56
Niittymaki: -17
Backup: 5

Pittsburgh PenguinsGFGA
Sidney Crosby [1.42]Evgeni Malkin [1.20]Petr Sykora [0.70]10938
Miroslav Satan [0.69]Jordan Staal [0.42]Ruslan Fedotenko [0.41]5032
Pascal Dupuis [0.38]Matt Cooke [0.33]Kris Beech [0.30]3318
Maxime Talbot [0.29]Tyler Kennedy [0.27]Jeff Taffe [0.23]2613
Sergei Gonchar [0.59]Ryan Whitney [0.53]3732
Darryl Sydor [0.35]Kristopher Letang [0.21]1822
Hal Gill [0.16]Mark Eaton [0.11]914
PK: 55
Fleury: -18
Sabourin: 0

Central Expectations

St. Louis BluesGFGA
Paul Kariya [0.99]Keith Tkachuk [0.80]Andy Mcdonald [0.63]7938
Lee Stempniak [0.48]David Perron [0.39]Dan Hinote [0.17]3428
Dwayne King [0.06]Cam Janssen [0.01]??? [~0.0.08]520
??? [~0.0.08]??? [~0.0.08]??? [~0.0.08]816
Erik Johnson [0.43]Eric Brewer [0.28]2329
Steve Wagner [0.22]Barret Jackman [0.21]1423
Jay Mckee [0.15]??? [~0.05]716
PK: 56
Legace: -6
Mason: 0

Nashville PredatorsGFGA
Jason Arnott [0.75]Alexander Radulov [0.66]Jean-pierre Dumont [0.63]6742
Martin Erat [0.57]David Legwand [0.55]Radek Bonk [0.49]5334
Vernon Fiddler [0.29]Scott Nichol [0.19]Rich Peverley [0.18]2219
Jordin Tootoo [0.16]Jerred Smithson [0.15]Jed Ortmeyer [0.11]1414
Shea Weber [0.40]Dan Hamhuis [0.31]2331
Ville Koistinen [0.27]Ryan Suter [0.27]1825
Greg De vries [0.19]Greg Zanon [0.09]916
PK: 56
Ellis: -16
Backup: 5

Detroit Red WingsGFGA
Marian Hossa [0.88]Henrik Zetterberg [0.87]Pavel Datsyuk [0.87]8633
Tomas Holmstrom [0.45]Mikael Samuelsson [0.42]Johan Franzen [0.39]4121
Jiri Hudler [0.38]Daniel Cleary [0.36]Valtteri Filppula [0.32]3513
Darren Haydar [0.24]Kris Draper [0.22]Kirk Maltby [0.21]2211
Nicklas Lidstrom [0.54]Brian Rafalski [0.51]3420
Niklas Kronvall [0.38]Brad Stuart [0.36]2423
Brett Lebda [0.17]Andreas Lilja [0.12]1012
PK: 56
Conklin: -4
Osgood: 7

Columbus Blue JacketsGFGA
Rick Nash [0.71]Kristian Huselius [0.61]Michael York [0.52]6034
Fredrik Modin [0.51]R.j. Umberger [0.48]Michael Peca [0.46]4832
Raffi Torres [0.38]Jason Chimera [0.33]Manny Malhotra [0.27]3219
Jiri Novotny [0.25]Andrew Murray [0.18]Craig Macdonald [0.12]1812
Christian Backman [0.25]Rostislav Klesla [0.23]1626
Mike Commodore [0.18]Jan Hejda [0.14]1021
Kris Russell [0.11]Ole-kristian Tollefsen [0.05]515
PK: 55
Leclaire: 4
Norrena: 10

Chicago BlackhawksGFGA
Patrick Kane [0.85]Jonathan Toews [0.80]Martin Havlat [0.76]7942
Robert Lang [0.51]Patrick Sharp [0.43]Andrew Ladd [0.37]4335
Dave Bolland [0.35]Petri Kontiola [0.23]Jack Skille [0.19]2518
Kris Versteeg [0.17]Craig Adams [0.15]Ben Eager [0.13]1516
Brian Campbell [0.44]Dustin Byfuglien [0.37]2731
Brent Sopel [0.37]Brent Seabrook [0.34]2325
Duncan Keith [0.31]Cameron Barker [0.28]1918
PK: 68
Khabibulin: -15
Huet: 5

Pacific Expectations

San Jose SharksGFGA
Joe Thornton [0.94]Patrick Marleau [0.65]Jeremy Roenick [0.65]7329
Jonathan Cheechoo [0.65]Milan Michalek [0.58]Joe Pavelski [0.47]5623
Ryane Clowe [0.44]Michael Grier [0.35]Devin Setoguchi [0.30]3615
Torrey Mitchell [0.19]Marcel Goc [0.18]Jody Shelley [0.07]1411
Dan Boyle [0.52]Robert Blake [0.44]3134
Christian Ehrhoff [0.32]Kyle Mclaren [0.26]1919
Marc-edouard Vlasic [0.21]Brad Lukowich [0.15]1213
PK: 65
Nabokov: 14
Backup: 5

Phoenix CoyotesGFGA
Peter Mueller [0.63]Olli Jokinen [0.61]Shane Doan [0.59]6045
Steven Reinprecht [0.56]Martin Hanzal [0.44]Daniel Carcillo [0.34]4432
Daniel Winnik [0.26]Marcel Hossa [0.23]Joel Perrault [0.22]2318
Enver Lisin [0.16]Michael Zigomanis [0.16]Todd Fedoruk [0.16]1614
Ed Jovanovski [0.46]Derek Morris [0.42]2931
Zbynek Michalek [0.24]Keith Yandle [0.23]1522
Matt Jones [0.07]Kurt Sauer [0.07]517
PK: 61
Bryzgalov: -21
Tellqvist: 11

Los Angeles KingsGFGA
Anze Kopitar [0.90]Alexander Frolov [0.67]Jarret Stoll [0.52]6946
Patrick O'sullivan [0.50]Michal Handzus [0.50]Kyle Calder [0.48]4941
Dustin Brown [0.47]Derek Armstrong [0.43]Matt Moulson [0.27]3824
Brad Richardson [0.24]Raitis Ivanans [0.08]Matt Ellis [0.07]1312
Tom Preissing [0.37]Peter Harrold [0.12]1633
Jack Johnson [0.11]Matt Greene [0.06]629
??? [~0.05]??? [~0.05]319
PK: 67
Labarbera: -29
Ersberg: -8

Dallas StarsGFGA
Brad Richards [0.86]Michael Modano [0.70]Mike Ribeiro [0.64]7234
Brenden Morrow [0.61]Jere Lehtinen [0.51]Sean Avery [0.42]5127
Loui Eriksson [0.34]Steve Ott [0.21]Joel Lundqvist [0.20]2515
Chris Conner [0.15]Krystofer Barch [0.07]??? [~0.0.08]1013
Sergei Zubov [0.52]Philippe Boucher [0.33]2826
Matt Niskanen [0.28]Stephane Robidas [0.21]1619
Trevor Daley [0.17]Nicklas Grossman [0.07]813
PK: 62
Turco: -7
Backup: 5

Anaheim DucksGFGA
Ryan Getzlaf [0.75]Brendan Morrison [0.66]Chris Kunitz [0.56]6539
Corey Perry [0.54]Rob Niedermayer [0.41]Todd Marchant [0.40]4432
Bobby Ryan [0.30]Samuel Pahlsson [0.25]Brad May [0.24]2616
Brian Sutherby [0.17]Travis Moen [0.15]Joakim Lindstrom [0.14]1512
Chris Pronger [0.58]Scott Niedermayer [0.48]3530
Mathieu Schneider [0.42]Francois Beauchemin [0.34]2525
Sean O'donnell [0.16]Kent Huskins [0.14]1015
PK: 61
Giguere: -27
Hiller: -22

Northwest Expectations

Last year I designed really complicated tables to try and calculate which teams would be successful. I tried to simplify things this year. I used 1 simple source for the data: HockeyDB. All I do is add up all the points per game (in their career) and multiply by the number of games per season and then divide by the number of points per goal (~2.7). There are a few minor adjustments for games played and age (young players get a boost, older players get a reduction). Teams without enough signed players are given a small amount for a marginal player. I should also thank Cory Brolund for his excellent free agent website.

I've added defense to the data. I've separated the even strength defense (to the right of the offense) for each line. I've done my best to predict the penalty killing. And then adjusted for goal tending.

Note: the number of points per game I used to calculated the expected offense is displayed in the brackets.

Vancouver CanucksGFGA
Pavol Demitra [0.87]Daniel Sedin [0.63]Henrik Sedin [0.62]7035
Kyle Wellwood [0.52]Steve Bernier [0.44]Mason Raymond [0.37]4429
Taylor Pyatt [0.35]Ryan Kesler [0.30]Matt Pettinger [0.27]3018
Alexandre Burrows [0.21]Jason Jaffray [0.19]Jeff Cowan [0.17]1912
Mattias Ohlund [0.42]Sami Salo [0.37]2628
Kevin Bieksa [0.32]Alexander Edler [0.20]1722
Lukas Krajicek [0.20]Willie Mitchell [0.16]1216


Minnesota WildGFGA
Marian Gaborik [0.81]Owen Nolan [0.65]Andrew Brunette [0.61]6837
Pierre-marc Bouchard [0.58]Mikko Koivu [0.52]Eric Belanger [0.42]5029
Antti Miettinen [0.33]James Sheppard [0.20]Stephane Veilleux [0.20]2416
Benoit Pouliot [0.09]Derek Boogaard [0.03]??? [~0.0.08]715
Marek Zidlicky [0.52]Marc-andre Bergeron [0.42]3132
Kim Johnsson [0.37]Kurtis Foster [0.36]2420
Brent Burns [0.30]Martin Skoula [0.23]1715


Edmonton OilersGFGA
Ales Hemsky [0.70]Erik Cole [0.61]Sam Gagner [0.58]6242
Shawn Horcoff [0.56]Andrew Cogliano [0.51]Dustin Penner [0.48]5136
Robert Nilsson [0.42]Fernando Pisani [0.39]Ethan Moreau [0.30]3621
Kyle Brodziak [0.27]Gilbert Brule [0.20]Marc-antoine Pouliot [0.19]2212
Lubomir Visnovsky [0.52]Tom Gilbert [0.35]2934
Sheldon Souray [0.34]Steve Staios [0.19]1725
Denis Grebeshkov [0.18]Ladislav Smid [0.08]916


Colorado AvalancheGFGA
Paul Stastny [0.98]Milan Hejduk [0.80]Ryan Smyth [0.68]8142
Wojtek Wolski [0.64]Marek Svatos [0.56]Tyler Arnason [0.50]5635
Darcy Tucker [0.50]Brian Willsie [0.28]T.j. Hensick [0.28]3521
Ian Laperriere [0.27]Ben Guite [0.22]Cody Mcleod [0.13]2014
John-michael Liles [0.45]Jordan Leopold [0.29]2430
Brett Clark [0.26]Scott Hannan [0.23]1625
Ruslan Salei [0.21]Adam Foote [0.20]1317


Calgary FlamesGFGA
Jarome Iginla [0.86]Todd Bertuzzi [0.69]Mike Cammalleri [0.67]7341
Daymond Langkow [0.61]Craig Conroy [0.47]Matthew Lombardi [0.41]4929
Rene Bourque [0.36]Marcus Nilson [0.30]Curtis Glencross [0.29]3119
David Moss [0.28]Wayne Primeau [0.24]Dustin Boyd [0.22]2414
Dion Phaneuf [0.59]Adrian Aucoin [0.33]3028
Anders Eriksson [0.28]James Vandermeer [0.22]1623
Robyn Regehr [0.20]Cory Sarich [0.14]1114


July 20, 2008

2008-2009 Schedule

TeamDistance (Km)
San Jose Sharks90,489
Calgary Flames85,910
Dallas Stars82,975
Phoenix Coyotes82,684
Vancouver Canucks82,387
Edmonton Oilers80,496
Anaheim Ducks77,714
Colorado Avalanche77,121
Florida Panthers73,638
Los Angeles Kings73,348
Minnesota Wild70,964
Tampa Bay Lightning69,059
Atlanta Thrashers68,316
Columbus Blue Jackets68,222
Nashville Predators66,700
St. Louis Blues66,589
Detroit Red Wings64,088
Chicago Blackhawks63,208
Carolina Hurricanes61,356
Toronto Maple Leafs54,499
New York Rangers52,764
Boston Bruins52,750
Montreal Canadiens52,064
Buffalo Sabres49,361
Philadelphia Flyers47,847
New Jersey Devils47,502
Pittsburgh Penguins47,129
Washington Capitals46,749
Ottawa Senators46,734
New York Islanders45,701

Even with the new schedule, the max travel distance is relatively unchanged from last season when it was about 87,000 Km. It appear that the Pacific conference is taking a lot of plane trips. Vancouver's schedule has a lot of long road trips to minimize travel distance. The Atlantic division will be doing about 20% more travel this season due to the new schedule.

May 28, 2008

Stanley Cup Final

Game 1:42.410001.083.7
Game 2:33.710001.292.1
Game 3:
Series [2-1]98.195.536.589.1

It takes more than good goaltending to win the Stanley Cup. In fact one might say it takes everything except goaltending. Detroit has gotten where they are with great team defense and great offense. Pittsburgh will need a lot of luck and hard work to win this series. Also, keep in mind that the west is better than the east. And the numbers below should convince any doubters that Detroit will should this series.

Even Strength
Power Play

The winner column displays the dominant team in that category. The more pictures of the team's logo the more dominant the team is in that category

All the non-percentage numbers are scoring rates. For example on the first row, the Detroit Red Wings have an even strength scoring rate of 2.66 goal for per hour. [GF = goals for, GA = goals against Exx = expected xx, SV% = shot quality neutral save percentage].

In the power play section in order to calculate the expected scoring rates I multiplied the goals for rate of one team and the goals against rate of the other and divide by the league average in order to get the expected rate for these two teams combined. So for example, the Detroit Red Wings have a power play goals for rate of 7.98 and the Pittsburgh Penguins have a penalty killing goals against rate of 6.89. So 7.98*6.89/6.5=8.46 [league average is 6.5].

Outperforming expected goals for is a sign of a lucky team. Outperforming expected goals against is a sign of either a good goaltender or luck as well.

Each category listed has a different importance to winning, so be careful how you read these. Being able to score short-handed isn't going to win a lot of hockey games.