|
March 15, 2008
Detailed shift charts - 2008 - List
Shot Quality 2008
I removed a few minor factors from other teams that appeared to hurt rather than help the model. As a result, Detroits goaltending looks a lot worse (makes sense, since Hasek is 40+ and Osgood is not known as an amazing goalie). I was disappointed to DiPietro's numbers fall, but that's how it will have to be for now.
You can see the changes @ my site.
March 7, 2008
Detailed shift charts - 2008
If all you care about are results than just look at the last row called average for the player you are interested in. 1.14 suggests the player scores (or has scored against him) 14% more goals then one would be expected when you consider who he plays with. Similarly, 0.86 suggest the player scores (or has scored against him) 14% fewer goals then one would expect when you consider who he plays with. Remember these are only for even strength. For example Daniel Sedin has 9% more goals then one would expect and 14% fewer goals against.
Here's the data:
Northwest
Vancouver Canucks
Minnesota Wild
Edmonton Oilers
Colorado Avalanche
Calgary Flames
Central
St. Louis Blues
Nashville Predators
Detroit Red Wings
Columbus Blue Jackets
Chicago Blackhawks
Pacific
San Jose Sharks
Phoenix Coyotes
Los Angeles Kings
Dallas Stars
Anaheim Ducks
Atlantic
New Jersey Devils
New York Islanders
New York Rangers
Philadelphia Flyers
Pittsburgh Penguins
Northeast
Boston Bruins
Buffalo Sabres
Montreal Canadiens
Ottawa Senators
Toronto Maple Leafs
Southeast
Atlanta Thrashers
Carolina Hurricanes
Florida Panthers
Tampa Bay Lightning
Washington Capitals
A quick explanation of the short forms:
- Time% - this represents the percentage of the row player's ice time that column player played with the row player. [(row and column time)/(row time)]
- +% - this represents the percentage of the row player's goals for that column player had with the row player [(row and column goals for)/(row goals for)]
- -% - this represents the percentage of the row player's goals against that column player had with the row player [(row and column goals against)/(row goals against)]
- +R = +%/Time%
- -R = -%/Time%
- Time measured in seconds.
Playoff Race
Since my previous article about the Eastern playoff race two teams predicted to have an easy time getting in have tanked. Ottawa has gone 3-8 (2-3 in OT) and Philadelphia has gone 5-9 (1-3 OT), however Canadiens and the Devils have now statistically secured their spot (>95% chance they'll make the playoffs if every game were a coin toss) and the Penguins are one win away from the same thing. Ottawa still stands an excellent chance of making the playoffs, but Philadelphia has joined the bubble teams.
Rangers and Bruins are pretty close to being locked in as my numbers show >90% chance of making the playoffs.
The Bubble teams
Bruins - As long as Thomas doesn't start they might be ok. They're having major issues, but they don't need to be amazing to make the playoffs, just get by so I don't see them falling out at this point.
Flyers - 7 losses in a row will take you from a playoff spot to almost out. After such a great start they now have a 25% chance of missing the playoffs. Still 75% chance of making it isn't that bad.
Hurricanes - Just have to win the division
Sabres - Odds don't look so good for them. They'll have to have a great March to even have a chance. (30% chance to make playoffs)
Washington - Must catch Hurricanes. They had a good chance of making the playoffs until Carolina acquired Corvo (9 points in 11 games), then it was over...
The rest are out!
There are two Boston - Buffalo games at the end of season, for Buffalo it could come down to having to win both of those games.
There are also two Carolina - Washington games left to be played at the end of the season.
Western Conference
There are four teams that are currently guaranteed to make the playoffs: Sharks, Stars, Wings, Ducks. [Note: Ducks are 16-8 (3-2 OT) since Janaury 1st]
Bubble teams [Northwest plus Chicago and Nashville minus Oilers]
Flames, Minnesota, Avalanche, Canucks - It's anyone's guess as to which of these four teams will make the playoffs, however keep in mind there are about 7 game in the last three weeks for each of these teams against each other. The most likely situation is that 3 out of these 4 are in.
Nashville - Need to pick it up if they want to catch the Northwest.
Chicago - I'm amazed they're still in the race. Still have a long way to go, but 3 wins in a row against strong teams is a great start.
March 4, 2008
Meet Craig Anderson
This got me wondering, how many greater than 40 shot shutouts there are in a regular season?
Since I've been collecting data there's been less than 10. What's interesting is the goalies who have done it aren't what most would consider the top 10 goalies in the NHL (Anderson is just a backup).
2003 - 2004
Aubin: 4-0 W vs. Dallas [45 Shots]
Luongo: 1-0 W vs. Columbus [42 shots]
2005 - 2006
Johnson: 1-0 W vs. Ottawa [46 shots]
Luongo: 5-0 W vs. Washington [44 Shots]
Thomas: 5-0 W vs. Ottawa [44 Shots]
2006 - 2007
Thomas: 3-0 W vs. Toronto [44 Shots]
Norrena: 3-0 W vs. Colorado [42 Shots]
Mason: 1-0 W vs. Colorado [42 Shots]
2007 - 2008
Anderson [53 Shots]
Anderson stopped 53 shots in a 1-0 victory over the Islanders on Sunday, the most in a shutout since shots on goal started being kept in the 1955-56 season.
Since 1989-90, it's the most saves in consecutive shutouts; current Wing Dominik Hasek made 75 saves for Buffalo in December 1997, according to STATS LLC.
- freep.com -
Anderson was drafted in the third round and not expected to be much more than a backup. However, in his short stint in the NHL [73 games]. His .894 is decent for such a young goalie. And it's worth noting that in his bad year with Chicago (29 games: 0.886 Save%) he wasn't as bad as his statistics suggest as Chicago isn't exactly the most defensively responsible team.
Anderson has now stopped 133 of last 134 shots he's faced in the last three games.
February 27, 2008
Stuart and Bergeron
Last season, Bergeron was shipped along with a third round pick for the first round pick Grebeshkov. This season he was stolen from the Islanders for a Third round pick (Essentially the Islanders got two third round draft picks for Grebeshkov and the services of Bergeron for a year).
As an aside, I recently wrote an article about Stuart's winning percentage. Now Stuart has a real good team to play on and a chance to improve his winning percentage, but don't count on it. Detroit should be able to better protect him and use him less compared to his past teams (Stuart will probably rank 4th on Detroit's depth chart when the team is healthy) and this should help him improve his game.
February 20, 2008
Western Domination of the Eastern Conference.
The statistic that best correlates with winning is goal differential, but there are several ways to get to the same goal differential. Below is a table that presents what I consider the most important statistics in hockey for these west vs. east games. Like above, the table is split into home/away games.
The most interesting portion of this table is the fact that the east is actually significantly better at getting short handed goals, but these goals seem to costing them power play goals against. It would appear that the east is encouraging offense at the cost of the powerplay goals against. It's hard to measure if this strategy is paying off though.
At home the west is getting 27% more expected goals against the east (15% more shots)
Some people have mentioned that goaltending is better in the west. This does not appear to be the case either as on average the east actually has better save percentage numbers.
None of the data can really clarify whether the west is better because of it's offense or it's defense, but it's worth noting the if the west played the east every game they'd have 9% more goals and if the east played the west every game they'd have 9% fewer goals! So if they split the season evenly the east would be down by about 5% and the west up by about 5%.
Note: The data is a couple weeks old.
February 13, 2008
Stillman for Corvo...
First off, this trade appears to be started by the
A lot of people like to point to one team and say they won in this trade, but in this situations both teams got what they needed without giving up something they really needed to keep. Carolina needed Corvo and Stillman was ranked 4th on the team in points, he isn't the most important part of Carolina's offense. Corvo, also has more points for Ottawa than the top two Carolina defenseman combined, but Ottawa still has Redden's offense and Meszaros isn't too far behind Corvo.
Either way it was a good deal for both teams. Like most trades should do, it made both teams better off.Features added to website
I have also added a new feature that shows what players played in which games in a simple graphic format that makes it easy to see who got injured when and how long they were out for. It gives you an idea how many injuries a team has had. You can find it here.
January 29, 2008
South East Division Race
So in conclusion, this race is Washington's to lose, but it's still close and any team could get the spot, by just being average.
Wester Conference race - 2008
Detroit, San Jose
Who is likely to be in:
Wild, Stars, Canucks, Flames, Ducks
This of course leaves room for the one extra Central team, either: Nashville, Columbus or St. Louis. My gut tells me it will be Columbus, due to their goaltending.
This leaves the teams below as unlikely candidates:
Avalanche, Coyotes.
Who's out
Blackhawks, Oilers, Kings.
Eastern Playoff race - 2008
Due to the nature of the eastern beast, I have decided not to include the South East division in the first part of the discussion, simply because they're special.
So for starters who's in:
Senators, Flyers, Canadiens, Devils, Penguins.
These teams have been playing well so far and now only need a 40% winning percentage (plus the free OT points) to make the playoffs
Bubble - Race
Bruins, Islanders, Sabres, Rangers. Two of these teams should make it in (the remaining Playoff team will come from the South East).
Why they'd make it:
Bruins: Bruins don't score many goals, so they're where they are because of goaltending and defense. (Chara, Wideman)
Islanders: DiPietro
Sabres: Balanced team, nothing stands out
Rangers: Lundqvist
Why they wont:
Bruins: -8 since the begining of December. And they should be a little more careful (injuries)
Islanders: Struggled recently, not sure if they'll get going any time soon.
Sabres: Things are looking quite bad for the Sabres. January they only have received two wins.
Rangers: Once they can score I might be able to say a ittle more.
It's hard to pick any two of the above teams, just because they're all struggling and if they keep that up there will be room for a second South East team.
Out
Sadly, there is only one team outside the South East who is out of the playoff picture already, for those who don't know: Maple Leafs
January 14, 2008
South East Division
|
What is interesting, is that the entire South East division is predicted to have too few points to be in the top 8 spots, but due to the divisional champion have secured at least one playoff spot. There will likely only be 1 team from the South East and it is possible that the team who makes it doesn't have enough points to make the playoffs (they will still make the playoffs due to the divisional champion rules).
How bad is the South East?
Currently every team is -10 or worse in terms of overall goal differential and the entire division is a -85. Carolina, the current divisional leader, has struggled since mid November and likely wont be able to maintain the nice #1 spot. It looks as though Washington is the one team able to keep its head above water since their lack luster start and could in fact make the playoffs.
A lot will be determined in March (another divisional game month) when these team will play eachother a bunch of times. It's hard to say what will happen.
Either way 6th spot may just be the best place to be in the upcoming Eastern playoff race as a team who would normally qualify for 8th or 9th slides into the 3rd spot to play that lucky 6th place team. Of course this 3rd place South East divisional winner has had quite a bit of success in the past (Carolina and Tampa Bay cup winners). It just seems strange to give such terrible teams that advantage.
January 11, 2008
Ovechkin Deal
What I find interesting, is that Ovechkin has done nothing to improve Washington. Here's a guy 250 points in 206 games and -11. That's a lot of goals for, but also a lot of goals against [Ranked 4th worst in 06-07 total even strength minuses.]. Ovechkin is up there again this season, on pace for another dazzling -70 goals against at even strength. What sort of value does he really provide?
Ovechkin is part of a small group of players who in fact average over 5 shots per game, and it's a big reason for his success. The quality of his shots are lacking and so his percentages are low, but with all those shots you get quite a few goals (but you also loose the puck a lot).
The fact of the matter is Washington hasn't gone anywhere with Ovechkin, so this could be a long 13 years ahead of them as they got no defense to build on.
I'm glad my team didn't sign that contract.