February 12, 2007

Trade Deadline

Trades in general make both parties involved better off. Often in the NHL a trade deadline deal is a swap of high present value for high future value. Draft picks are the best representation of high future value and Stuart or Nagy represent high present value. For a team making the playoffs the present is extremely valuable (each additional playoff round is worth millions) and the present is almost worthless for a team not making the playoffs as the only thing they’re going to lose is a few ticket sales in the last 30 games.

I always find the trades that go down to provide significant insight into the value of draft picks and players. For example prior to the new (2006) CBA draft picks were often swapped for good players. Currently it appears almost mandatory to include a prospect in the other direction rather than a draft pick. This is because the new CBA makes the players RFAs after they turn 27 rather than 30 and considering that most players (after the first 20 picks or so) don’t become regulars until they turn 23 or 24, which leaves only 3-4 years of value. The salary cap also shifted the value of the RFAs in such a way that is too complicated to discuss here.

In order to look at the statistical value of the trades I added a trade feature on my website, trades up to this date are displayed here as well:
C. KOBASEW40$2.3M$1.2M10:502.11.10.22:204.30:035.8
A. FERENCE54$4.2M$0.8M13:142.41.9-0.092:035.13:123.7
B. STUART48$-1.4M$2.4M16:4434.5-0.192:132.63:586.9
W. PRIMEAU51$0.4M$1.2M11:021.53.1-0.421:074.42:566.5
J. VASICEK38$2.7M$1.3M11:452.72.60.050:445.20:426.2
E. BELANGER56$0.8M$1.3M10:402.22.30.162:402.81:315.5
V. VISHNEVSKI52$3.5M$1.6M16:082.73-0.190:064.73:034.5
A. HALL49$0.4M$1M8:321.23-0.611:404.92:156
P. DUPUIS48$0.3M$0.8M11:401.22.1-0.330:474.12:407.1
S. AVERY55$4.1M$1.1M12:352.230.212:316.61:455.8
J. WARD46$5.9M$0.7M9:
J. LUNDMARK39$1.9M$0.6M7:4611.8-0.270:485.40:036.8
C. CONROY52$3.7M$2.4M11:471.82.80.12:036.21:385.2
2008 2nd $1.5M
2007 4th $0.5M
J. MOTZKO7$2.8M - 6:161.41.400:0800:020
M. HARTIGAN6$4.5M$0.5M10:12200.173:386.80:005.5
2007 4th $0.5M
2007 1st $2.7M
M. TJARNQVIST18$2.1M$0.5M8:001.93-0.230:100.10:04-3.7
L. NAGY55$4.1M$3M13:
2007 1st $2.7M

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