Standings Predictions.

West # Name Points 1 Ducks* 108 2 Canucks* 101 3 Avalanche 100 4 Red Wings* 99 5 Flames 98 6 Sharks 98 7 Predators 96 8 Wild 91 9 Stars 89 10 Blues 83 11 Blue Jackets 70 12 Blackhawks 70 13 Kings 69 14 Oilers 66 15 Coyotes 57

East # Name Points 1 Sabres* 110 2 Penguins* 105 3 Islanders 101 4 Rangers 100 5 Maple Leafs 99 6 Senators 97 7 Canadiens 91 8 Thrashers* 91 9 Devils 90 10 Bruins 89 11 Panthers 89 12 Hurricanes 87 13 Lightning 81 14 Flyers 80 15 Capitals 78

Here are my current standing predictions. I tried my best to do it based on how different this year's team is compared to last years. Big changes in expected points are indicated by the arrows, for the most part team's point totals aren't expected to change much. I know a lot of people have predicted Boston to be the worst team in the east, but with their upgrade in net I'm doubt that will happen. Similarly, a lot of people see the Islanders as one of the worst teams in the east, but DiPietro is still there and while they have made a lot of changes the overall impact isn't very large.

I haven't put much if any opinion type information in the above tables. They are constructed completely based on the players that the teams have acquired and lost in the offseason.

I know there are a lot of problems with predictions (predictions are never very good), but I have constructed a NHL standings market. The goal is to get the most accurate prediction of the NHL standings. However in order to work I need a lot of people using it. More people involved means better the results.

NHL standings market is not really hard to use: simply take the number of points you are expecting a team to get this season and ask/sell a few points higher than that number (5 or so) and bid/buy for a few points lower. Someone will eventually take you up on that offer by buying your ask or selling to your bid. I've set up an initial set up based on my predictions. You don't have to ask/sell and bid/buy you can choose just one stock or do them all at once.

Many people may want to jump on the opportunity to bet against my "high" point expectation for the Islanders (I'm willing to buy at 100 points), so if you expect the Islanders to get fewer than 100 points this season simply ask for 100 on the Islanders.

Two signings go unnoticed.

Klemm and Smith have signed in the last few days, but there is no news relating to these two players. No trackers have the information including the Free Agency Tracker.

Klemm signed in Los Angeles for $500k and Wyatt Smith signed with the Avalanche for $500k as well.

Josh Green didn't even say good bye.

It's interesting, not a single article in any media about Josh Green's decision to sign in Austria. However, according to Cory Brolund from the "2007 NHL Free Agents" site, Green has signed in Salzburg, AUS. I never understood why the Vancouver Canucks didn't even try to give him a decent offer to keep him on the team.

Josh Green is a reasonably unknown hockey player. He got 2 goals and 5 assists in 57 games this season. What is interesting is that Josh Green was the NHL's best penalty killer (based on GA/Hr). Typically players will get about 6 goals against per hour, Josh Green had 5 goals against in 2 and a half hours (2GA/Hr). 2 of those 5 goals happened on 5 on 3's, meaning Josh Green had only 3 goals go in on him with 5 skaters to 4. Most players don't do as well at 5 on 5 as Josh Green did on the penalty kill. At even strength he allowed 13 goals against in 8 hours (1.6GA/Hr), which is significantly better then the average 2.4GA/hr. Of course Green had the support of Luongo, but even including that factor what Green did for Vancouver was remarkable. Had Green been nominated for best defensive forward for his accomplishments he certainly would not have disappeared to Europe in the off season.

Josh Green has 74 points in 322 games played and has averaged about 40 games played per season on many different teams. His contributions are obviously defensive, because teams wouldn't play him if his only contribution was his limited offense.

I'm curious how his loss will impact the Canuck's penalty kill, the 25 games he didn't play this season he was certainly missed.

He can still sign in North America if he wants, but there appear to be few takers.

Auld takes pay cut to try and prove that he is #1

Auld has signed where I expected him to sign: Phoenix. He signed for $600,000, a significant pay cut from last season. Phoenix had huge goaltending problems last season and the only remnant left from last season is Tellqvist. They now have one legitimate career backup [Tellqvist ] and two goalies who haven't been able to prove they are number one goaltenders on their previous team. Tellqvist may no longer be necessary however, there are often early season goaltending problems for at least one team and Phoenix will be nicely set up for a early season trade if that is the case.

Good unsigned players.

Every year it seems GM’s deliberately pass over certain players. Some players have chosen to sign in Europe instead and I will ignore them. I’m not about to debate their value or discuss who should sign them. I’m simply posting for the reason of wonder: why the heck aren’t teams interested in signing these guys:

1. Brent Sopel

Brent Sopel is at the peak of his career (30 years old) and cannot find a job. With 434 games played and 181 points (0.42). To put those statistics into perspective, Souray has 186 points in 506 games (0.37). I suspect Sopel is looking for more money than he’s worth. That being said, I’m surprised Sopel hasn’t conceded and accepted an offer.

2. Jeff O’Neil

31 year old Jeff O’Neil has 821 games under his belt (only 34 playoff games though) and has 237 goals and 259 assists totaling 496 points. Not bad for a guy who’s only played about 60% of his career. In 2000-2001 he scored 41 goals, lately he’s only got about 20 per season. He may be expecting too much in this year’s contract, but it’s certainly a surprise to see a young effective forward being left out of the game.

3. Danny Markov

31 year old Markov has done quite well for himself as a defensive defenseman. Many are shying away though due to the fact he got paired with Lidstrom last year. Markov has 538 games experience with an average of 10 games per playoff appearance. +47 in his career for many different teams. However Markov has had success with many different teams in his career and Detroit was simply another one. Word on the street is that Markov has given up trying to find a contract in the NHL and is being courted by Vityaz Chekhov, a Russian Superleague team.

4. Mike Johnson

32 year old Mike Johnson has been left high and dry, as he is likely looking for more money than he’s worth. A consistent half point per game contributor he’s worth signing at the right price.

5. Anson Carter

I’m not surprised he hasn’t been signed as he is likely looking for significantly more than he’s worth. However, if one looks at his record (421 points in 674 games) he may be well worth the risk.

It seems that the trend here may be that all these players are expecting a lot more than they’re worth. Once they concede to their true value it probably wont be hard for them to get a contract.

What would you do if you were Lowe?

A lot of criticism has flowed since Lowe signed Penner last week. To the surprise of no one, Burke conceded that the contract Lowe signed was a complete ripoff and not worth matching. The real question though was Lowe being stupid based on his current predicament?

A lot of people forget that Edmonton is possibly the worst place to play hockey in the NHL:
1. Climate is horrible
2. City isn't that popular
3. Team sucks (no chance to win cup).

Nylander refused to sign in beautiful Edmonton. Souray probably required a premium to play in Edmonton. And we don't know all the other players that have refused to sign in Edmonton. Edmonton could start next season without a replacement for Smyth, but obviously that team is much worse than a team that finds a replacement for Smyth, even if it's not perfect. If you're an Edmonton fan you should know they're not spending to the cap anyway and that any signing is better than not signing someone. Who would you rather have than Penner (who'd be willing to sign in Edmonton). Of course it's Lupul all over again. You wonder who they'll choose from Anaheim next season to overpaid.

What a lot of people don't get is that bad teams have to spend a lot of money to make themselves competitive in order to make themselves attractive to free agents. (free agents will choose a good team over a bad team all things being equal). Penner is part of that, but an extremely small part, but it's better than nothing.

Of course hind-sight is 20-20, Edmonton should have signed Smyth for about $5.5 at the end of last season, but of course management wasn't smart enough to know a good deal when they're staring right at it.

Northeast - offseason

Boston Bruins

Goaltending T. Thomas H. Toivonen + M. Fernandez [$4.7M] Defenseman Z. Chara A. Alberts - P. Mara [$2.4M] - B. Stuart [$0.7M] - uJ. York [$0.7M] + D. Wideman [$2.7M] + A. Ward [$0.3M] + A. Ference [$2.8M] + 2 Replacement Defense player(s) [$1M] Forwards M. Savard P. Bergeron G. Murray M. Sturm P. Kessel P. Axelsson M. Mowers S. Chistov - B. Boyes [$1.3M] - S. Donovan [$1.8M] - W. Primeau [$0.3M] - uP. Tenkrat [$0.5M] - uJ. Hoggan* [$0.5M] + P. Schaefer [$2.3M] + S. Thornton [$0.9M] + 3 Replacement Forward(s) [$1.5M] + $16.1M - $8.2M = $7.9M Or 16 Points u - Unsigned * - Group II, likely to re-sign

Buffalo Sabres

Goaltending R. Miller - M. Biron [$-0.4M] + J. Thibault [$3.5M] Defenseman B. Campbell T. Numminen D. Kalinin J. Spacek T. Lydman H. Tallinder - uN. Paetsch* [$1.2M] + 1 Replacement Defense player(s) [$0.5M] Forwards T. Vanek J. Pominville M. Afinogenov J. Hecht A. Kotalik D. Stafford P. Gaustad A. Mair A. Peters - D. Briere [$5.1M] - C. Drury [$2.8M] - uD. Roy* [$6M] - J. Novotny [$0.3M] + 4 Replacement Forward(s) [$2M] + $6M - $15.1M = $-9.1M Or -18 Points u - Unsigned * - Group II, likely to re-sign

Montreal Canadiens

Goaltending C. Huet J. Halak - uD. Aebischer [$3.4M] Defenseman A. Markov M. Streit M. Komisarek F. Bouillon M. Dandenault - S. Souray [$2.1M] - C. Rivet [$0.7M] - uJ. Niinimaa [$0M] + R. Hamrlik [$7.1M] + J. Gorges [$0.1M] Forwards S. Koivu A. Kovalev T. Plekanec C. Higgins G. Latendresse M. Lapierre S. Begin G. Murray - uM. Ryder* [$2.4M] - uM. Johnson [$2.8M] - S. Samsonov [$1.3M] - R. Bonk [$1.9M] - uA. Perezhogin* [$2.5M] + B. Smolinski [$3.6M] + T. Kostopoulos [$2.1M] + 3 Replacement Forward(s) [$1.5M] + $14.4M - $17M = $-2.7M Or -5 Points u - Unsigned * - Group II, likely to re-sign

Ottawa Senators

Goaltending R. Emery M. Gerber Defenseman J. Corvo W. Redden A. Meszaros C. Phillips A. Volchenkov - T. Preissing [$5.3M] - uC. Schubert* [$2.5M] + 2 Replacement Defense player(s) [$1M] Forwards D. Heatley D. Alfredsson J. Spezza M. Fisher A. Vermette P. Eaves D. Mcammond C. Neil B. Mcgrattan - P. Schaefer [$2.3M] - uC. Kelly* [$2.7M] - M. Comrie [$2.3M] - uD. Hamel [$0.8M] + S. Donovan [$1.8M] + 3 Replacement Forward(s) [$1.5M] + $4.3M - $16M = $-11.7M Or -23 Points E - Signed in Europe u - Unsigned * - Group II, likely to re-sign

Toronto Maple Leafs

Goaltending A. Raycroft - uJ. Aubin [$0.1M] + V. Toskala [$1.2M] Defenseman B. Mccabe T. Kaberle I. White P. Kubina H. Gill C. Colaiacovo W. Belak Forwards M. Sundin A. Ponikarovsky D. Tucker K. Wellwood M. Stajan A. Steen N. Antropov J. Pohl B. Battaglia C. Kilger - uJ. O'neill [$2.4M] + J. Blake [$3M] + M. Bell [$0.1M] + 1 Replacement Forward(s) [$0.5M] + $4.8M - $2.5M = $2.3M Or 5 Points u - Unsigned * - Group II, likely to re-sign

Northwest - offseason

Vancouver Canucks

Goaltending R. Luongo - D. Sabourin [$0.5M] + C. Sanford [$1.4M] Defenseman K. Bieksa S. Salo M. Ohlund L. Krajicek W. Mitchell - uR. Fitzpatrick [$2.9M] + A. Miller [$1.1M] + 1 Replacement Defense player(s) [$0.5M] Forwards D. Sedin H. Sedin M. Naslund B. Morrison T. Pyatt M. Cooke R. Kesler J. Cowan A. Burrows - uT. Linden [$1.8M] - uJ. Bulis [$0.3M] - uJ. Green [$2.2M] - uM. Chouinard [$0.6M] + B. Ritchie [$0.9M] + R. Shannon [$0.8M] + 2 Replacement Forward(s) [$1M] + $5.7M - $8.3M = $-2.6M Or -5 Points u - Unsigned * - Group II, likely to re-sign

Minnesota Wild

Goaltending N. Backstrom - M. Fernandez [$4.7M] + 1 Replacement Goalie(s) [$0.5M] Defenseman B. Burns K. Foster K. Johnsson P. Nummelin K. Carney M. Skoula N. Schultz + S. Hill [$1M] Forwards B. Rolston P. Demitra M. Gaborik P. Bouchard M. Koivu M. Parrish W. Walz B. Radivojevic S. Veilleux D. Boogaard - T. White [$3.2M] - P. Dupuis [$0.3M] - uW. Smith [$0.2M] + E. Belanger [$1.8M] + D. Moore [$1.2M] + 1 Replacement Forward(s) [$0.5M] + $5M - $8.4M = $-3.4M Or -7 Points E - Signed in Europe u - Unsigned * - Group II, likely to re-sign

Edmonton Oilers

Goaltending D. Roloson - uJ. Markkanen [$0.2M] + M. Garon [$1.5M] Defenseman S. Staios M. Greene L. Smid - M. Bergeron [$3.6M] - J. Smith [$2.3M] + S. Souray [$2.1M] + J. Pitkanen [$3M] + 2 Replacement Defense player(s) [$1M] Forwards A. Hemsky S. Horcoff J. Stoll R. Torres F. Pisani M. Reasoner P. Thoresen M. Pouliot - R. Smyth [$5.6M] - P. Sykora [$1.6M] - J. Lupul [$-0.1M] - T. Petersen [$-0.1M] - B. Winchester [$0.7M] + G. Sanderson [$1.7M] + 4 Replacement Forward(s) [$2M] + $11.3M - $13.9M = $-2.6M Or -5 Points u - Unsigned * - Group II, likely to re-sign

Colorado Avalanche

Goaltending P. Budaj J. Theodore Defenseman J. Liles B. Clark K. Skrastins K. Sauer - K. Klee [$3.6M] - uO. Vaananen [$2.2M] + S. Hannan [$3.4M] + 2 Replacement Defense player(s) [$1M] Forwards J. Sakic A. Brunette P. Stastny M. Hejduk W. Wolski T. Arnason M. Svatos I. Laperriere B. Richardson M. Rycroft - B. Mclean [$2.6M] - uA. Laaksonen [$0.7M] + R. Smyth [$5.6M] + 2 Replacement Forward(s) [$1M] + $11M - $9.2M = $1.9M Or 4 Points u - Unsigned * - Group II, likely to re-sign

Calgary Flames

Goaltending M. Kiprusoff - uJ. Mclennan [$0.4M] + 1 Replacement Goalie(s) [$0.5M] Defenseman D. Phaneuf R. Regehr R. Warrener - R. Hamrlik [$7.1M] - uM. Giordano* [$1.3M] - A. Ference [$2.8M] - A. Zyuzin [$0.3M] + A. Eriksson [$3.7M] + A. Aucoin [$-0.4M] + C. Sarich [$2.1M] + D. Hale [$0.6M] Forwards J. Iginla A. Tanguay K. Huselius D. Langkow M. Lombardi S. Yelle D. Moss M. Nilson - uT. Amonte [$0M] - B. Ritchie [$0.9M] - uJ. Friesen [$1.2M] + O. Nolan [$2.7M] + C. Conroy [$2M] + W. Primeau [$0.3M] + 2 Replacement Forward(s) [$1M] + $12.5M - $13.9M = $-1.4M Or -3 Points u - Unsigned * - Group II, likely to re-sign

Who's Left?

Skaters

N I Lastname GP Min Pts P Age 1 T Selanne 82 18 95 F 37 2 P Forsberg 57 18 79 F 33 3 B Sopel 64 20 61 D 30 4 J Heward 71 17 47 D 36 5 P Brisebois 33 19 46 D 36 6 J O'neill 74 14 45 F 31 7 M Gelinas 82 13 44 F 37 8 E Lindros 49 15 42 F 34 9 R Robitaille 78 14 42 F 31 10 A Sutton 55 19 41 D 32 11 D Tanabe 60 18 39 D 26 12 A Carter 64 14 36 F 33 13 G Metropolit 77 12 35 F 33 14 M Peca 35 17 35 F 33 15 J Kwiatkowski 41 10 34 D 30 16 D Markov 66 19 34 D 31 17 J Roenick 70 14 33 F 37 18 C Simon 67 11 33 F 35 19 M Weaver 39 15 32 D 29 20 M Johnson 80 15 32 F 32 21 P Bondra 37 12 31 F 39 22 M Smith 41 10 26 F 29 23 T Linden 80 12 26 F 37 24 J Melichar 70 19 24 D 28 25 J York 49 13 23 D 37 26 A Asham 80 9 23 F 29 27 P Stefan 41 12 22 F 26 28 P Tenkrat 64 13 18 F 30 29 M Holmqvist 63 14 17 F 28 30 R Fitzpatrick 58 14 17 D 32 31 R Petrovicky 31 8 16 F 30 32 M Barnaby 39 8 15 F 34 33 J Dipenta 76 12 15 D 28 34 O Vaananen 74 14 15 D 26 35 J Vigier 72 11 15 F 30 36 J Friesen 72 12 14 F 30 37 N Pratt 81 16 14 D 31 38 D Hamel 54 6 12 F 30 39 J Klemm 38 13 11 D 37 40 E Rasmussen 71 9 10 F 30 41 J Green 57 11 10 F 29 42 J Dowd 66 8 10 F 38 43 T Taylor 71 8 7 F 38 44 J Langfeld 33 6 5 F 30

Note:
Forwards (F): Pts = 82*Points/games played
Defense (D): Pts = 82*1.7*Points/games played [Adjusted points to make them comparable to forwards]

Goalies

N I Lastname Shots Sv% SQN% Age 1 E Belfour 1550 90.2 90.4 42 2 C Joseph 1481 89.3 90.4 40 3 A Auld 729 88.8 89.9 26 4 S Burke 687 90.1 91.3 40 5 M Dunham 540 89.1 91.0 35 6 R Esche 465 87.5 88.2 29 7 J Markkanen 457 88.6 89.2 32 8 B Boucher 388 88.4 89.8 30 9 J Aubin 360 87.5 89.0 30 10 J Mclennan 304 89.5 89.3 36

SQN% = Shot Quality Neutral Save Percentage. Is simply a adjusted save percentage based on the difficulty of the shots faced. eg. Brodeur sees about 33% less PK time than most goalies and as a result faces easier shots on average so his save percentage will be higher.

Southeast - offseason

Atlanta Thrashers

Goaltending K. Lehtonen J. Hedberg Defenseman N. Havelid S. Mccarthy G. Exelby - G. De vries [$2.4M] - uA. Sutton [$2.5M] - S. Hnidy [$2.4M] - V. Vishnevski [$2M] + K. Klee [$3.6M] + 3 Replacement Defense player(s) [$1.5M] Forwards M. Hossa V. Kozlov I. Kovalchuk S. Mellanby B. Holik S. Rucchin B. Larsen E. Boulton - J. Sim [$1.1M] - uG. Metropolit [$1.9M] - uJ. Slater* [$1.6M] - N. Kapanen [$-0.6M] - uJ. Vigier [$1.6M] + T. White [$3.2M] + E. Perrin [$1.9M] + P. Dupuis [$0.3M] + 2 Replacement Forward(s) [$1M] + $11.5M - $15M = $-3.5M Or -7 Points u - Unsigned * - Group II, likely to re-sign

Carolina Hurricanes

Goaltending C. Ward J. Grahame Defenseman M. Commodore G. Wesley N. Wallin B. Hedican T. Gleason - uD. Tanabe [$2.5M] - uA. Babchuk* [$1.3M] - A. Hutchinson [$1.5M] + 2 Replacement Defense player(s) [$1M] Forwards R. Whitney R. Brind'amour E. Staal J. Williams E. Cole S. Walker C. Stillman A. Ladd C. Larose C. Adams T. Letowski - E. Belanger [$1.8M] + M. Cullen [$2.2M] + J. Hamilton [$2.4M] + $5.6M - $7.1M = $-1.5M Or -3 Points u - Unsigned * - Group II, likely to re-sign

Florida Panthers

Goaltending - uE. Belfour [$3.5M] - uA. Auld [$1.1M] + T. Vokoun [$7.2M] + 1 Replacement Goalie(s) [$0.5M] Defenseman J. Bouwmeester R. Salei M. Van ryn B. Allen B. Mezei - uJ. Kwiatkowski [$1.1M] - uS. Montador* [$1.3M] + 2 Replacement Defense player(s) [$1M] Forwards O. Jokinen N. Horton J. Stumpel V. Peltonen R. Olesz D. Booth G. Campbell - uS. Weiss* [$3M] - uM. Gelinas [$2.9M] - C. Gratton [$1.3M] - G. Roberts [$3M] - uJ. Kolnik* [$1.6M] + R. Dvorak [$1.2M] + B. Mclean [$2.6M] + 4 Replacement Forward(s) [$2M] + $14.5M - $18.9M = $-4.4M Or -9 Points u - Unsigned * - Group II, likely to re-sign

Tampa Bay Lightning

Goaltending J. Holmqvist M. Denis Defenseman D. Boyle F. Kuba P. Ranger - C. Sarich [$2.1M] - uD. Janik* [$1.8M] - uN. Pratt [$2.5M] + S. O'brien [$1.6M] + B. Lukowich [$1.5M] + 2 Replacement Defense player(s) [$1M] Forwards V. Lecavalier M. St. louis B. Richards V. Prospal A. Karlsson N. Tarnasky A. Roy - E. Perrin [$1.9M] - R. Fedotenko [$3.1M] - uR. Craig* [$1.3M] - uN. Alexeev* [$2.9M] - uT. Taylor [$0.9M] + M. Ouellet [$1.7M] + C. Gratton [$1.3M] + J. Ward [$2.1M] + 3 Replacement Forward(s) [$1.5M] + $10.7M - $16.4M = $-5.8M Or -12 Points u - Unsigned * - Group II, likely to re-sign

Washington Capitals

Goaltending O. Kolzig B. Johnson Defenseman B. Pothier S. Eminger S. Morrisonn - uJ. Heward [$3.1M] - M. Green [$1.1M] + T. Poti [$2.2M] + 3 Replacement Defense player(s) [$1.5M] Forwards A. Ovechkin A. Semin C. Clark M. Pettinger B. Gordon B. Clymer B. Sutherby M. Bradley D. Brashear - D. Zubrus [$2.9M] - uK. Beech* [$1.2M] - uB. Laich* [$0.9M] - uJ. Klepis* [$1.2M] + M. Nylander [$4.8M] + V. Kozlov [$3.1M] + 2 Replacement Forward(s) [$1M] + $12.6M - $10.4M = $2.2M Or 4 Points u - Unsigned * - Group II, likely to re-sign

Atlantic - offseason

New Jersey Devils

Goaltending M. Brodeur + K. Weekes [$0.6M] Defenseman J. Oduya C. White - B. Rafalski [$4.8M] - uP. Martin* [$1.9M] - B. Lukowich [$1.5M] - D. Hale [$0.6M] + K. Rachunek [$2.2M] + V. Vishnevski [$2M] + 3 Replacement Defense player(s) [$1.5M] Forwards P. Elias J. Langenbrunner B. Gionta T. Zajac S. Brylin J. Madden J. Pandolfo M. Rupp C. Janssen - uZ. Parise* [$3.4M] - S. Gomez [$4.2M] - uE. Rasmussen [$0.7M] - uJ. Dowd [$1.4M] + D. Zubrus [$2.9M] + 3 Replacement Forward(s) [$1.5M] + $10.6M - $18.5M = $-7.9M Or -16 Points u - Unsigned * - Group II, likely to re-sign

New York Islanders

Goaltending R. Dipietro - uM. Dunham [$2.1M] + J. Macdonald [$0.5M] Defenseman R. Martinek C. Campoli B. Witt B. Gervais - T. Poti [$2.2M] - S. Hill [$1M] + M. Bergeron [$3.6M] + A. Johnson [$1.1M] + 1 Replacement Defense player(s) [$0.5M] Forwards M. Satan M. Sillinger A. Yashin A. Hilbert R. Park S. Bates - J. Blake [$3M] - V. Kozlov [$3.1M] - uT. Hunter* [$3.1M] - uC. Simon [$2.2M] - uR. Robitaille [$1.2M] - uA. Asham [$1.2M] + B. Guerin [$2.8M] + R. Fedotenko [$3.1M] + J. Sim [$1.1M] + M. Comrie [$2.3M] + 3 Replacement Forward(s) [$1.5M] + $16.4M - $19M = $-2.7M Or -5 Points u - Unsigned * - Group II, likely to re-sign

New York Rangers

Goaltending H. Lundqvist - K. Weekes [$0.6M] + 1 Replacement Goalie(s) [$0.5M] Defenseman M. Rozsival M. Malik F. Tyutin T. Pock - K. Rachunek [$2.2M] - A. Ward [$0.3M] + P. Mara [$2.4M] + A. Hutchinson [$1.5M] + 1 Replacement Defense player(s) [$0.5M] Forwards J. Jagr M. Straka B. Shanahan P. Prucha B. Betts R. Hollweg C. Orr - M. Nylander [$4.8M] - M. Cullen [$2.2M] - uM. Hossa* [$1.6M] - uA. Hall* [$0.1M] - J. Ortmeyer [$1.9M] - J. Ward [$2.1M] + C. Drury [$2.8M] + S. Gomez [$4.2M] + 4 Replacement Forward(s) [$2M] + $13.9M - $15.7M = $-1.8M Or -4 Points u - Unsigned * - Group II, likely to re-sign

Philadelphia Flyers

Goaltending A. Niittymaki M. Biron - uR. Esche [$-0.6M] Defenseman R. Jones A. Picard D. Hatcher D. Gauthier - J. Pitkanen [$3M] + K. Timonen [$5.1M] + L. Kukkonen [$2M] + J. Smith [$2.3M] Forwards S. Gagne M. Knuble J. Carter M. Richards R. Umberger S. Kapanen B. Eager - G. Sanderson [$1.7M] - K. Calder [$0.4M] - uD. Afanasenkov* [$0.6M] - T. Fedoruk [$0.9M] + D. Briere [$5.1M] + S. Hartnell [$2.8M] + J. Lupul [$-0.1M] + 3 Replacement Forward(s) [$1.5M] + $18.8M - $5.9M = $12.8M Or 26 Points u - Unsigned * - Group II, likely to re-sign

Pittsburgh Penguins

Goaltending M. Fleury - J. Thibault [$3.5M] + D. Sabourin [$0.5M] + T. Conklin [$0.5M] Defenseman S. Gonchar R. Whitney R. Scuderi B. Orpik - uJ. Melichar [$1.1M] - uA. Nasreddine [$2.6M] + D. Sydor [$1.1M] + 2 Replacement Defense player(s) [$1M] Forwards S. Crosby E. Malkin M. Recchi J. Staal C. Armstrong E. Christensen R. Malone M. Talbot J. Ruutu - M. Ouellet [$1.7M] - D. Moore [$1.2M] + P. Sykora [$1.6M] + G. Roberts [$3M] + G. Laraque [$2.5M] + 1 Replacement Forward(s) [$0.5M] + $10.7M - $10.1M = $0.6M Or 1 Points u - Unsigned * - Group II, likely to re-sign

Central - offseason

St. Louis Blues

Goaltending M. Legace - C. Sanford [$1.4M] - uJ. Bacashihua* [$1.6M] + 1 Replacement Goalie(s) [$0.5M] Defenseman E. Brewer B. Jackman C. Backman B. Salvador - D. Wideman [$2.7M] - uM. Walker* [$1.8M] + 3 Replacement Defense player(s) [$1.5M] Forwards D. Weight L. Stempniak P. Cajanek K. Tkachuk J. Mcclement M. Rucinsky D. Backes J. Mayers R. Johnson D. Hinote - B. Guerin [$2.8M] - R. Dvorak [$1.2M] - D. Drake [$-0.2M] + P. Kariya [$4.3M] + B. Boyes [$1.3M] + 1 Replacement Forward(s) [$0.5M] + $8.1M - $11.1M = $-3M Or -6 Points u - Unsigned * - Group II, likely to re-sign

Nashville Predators

Goaltending C. Mason - T. Vokoun [$7.2M] + 1 Replacement Goalie(s) [$0.5M] Defenseman S. Weber M. Zidlicky R. Suter D. Hamhuis G. Zanon - K. Timonen [$5.1M] + G. De vries [$2.4M] + 1 Replacement Defense player(s) [$0.5M] Forwards J. Dumont D. Legwand S. Sullivan M. Erat J. Arnott A. Radulov V. Fiddler S. Nichol J. Smithson J. Tootoo D. Hordichuk - P. Kariya [$4.3M] - S. Hartnell [$2.8M] + R. Bonk [$1.9M] + J. Ortmeyer [$1.9M] + $7.2M - $19.5M = $-12.3M Or -25 Points u - Unsigned * - Group II, likely to re-sign

Detroit Red Wings

Goaltending D. Hasek C. Osgood - J. Macdonald [$0.5M] Defenseman N. Lidstrom N. Kronvall B. Lebda C. Chelios A. Lilja - M. Schneider [$4.7M] - uD. Markov [$4.1M] + B. Rafalski [$4.8M] + 1 Replacement Defense player(s) [$0.5M] Forwards P. Datsyuk H. Zetterberg T. Holmstrom D. Cleary M. Samuelsson J. Franzen K. Draper J. Hudler V. Filppula K. Maltby - R. Lang [$2.6M] - J. Williams [$0.5M] + D. Drake [$-0.2M] + 2 Replacement Forward(s) [$1M] + $6.1M - $12.3M = $-6.3M Or -13 Points u - Unsigned * - Group II, likely to re-sign

Columbus Blue Jackets

Goaltending F. Norrena P. Leclaire - T. Conklin [$0.5M] Defenseman R. Hainsey R. Klesla A. Foote O. Tollefsen - A. Eriksson [$3.7M] - A. Johnson [$1.1M] + 3 Replacement Defense player(s) [$1.5M] Forwards D. Vyborny R. Nash F. Modin S. Fedorov J. Chimera N. Zherdev D. Fritsche M. Malhotra G. Brule A. Svitov J. Shelley - uA. Carter [$2.2M] + J. Novotny [$0.3M] + 1 Replacement Forward(s) [$0.5M] + $2.3M - $7.4M = $-5.1M Or -10 Points u - Unsigned * - Group II, likely to re-sign

Chicago Blackhawks

Goaltending N. Khabibulin P. Lalime - uB. Boucher [$0.7M] Defenseman D. Keith B. Seabrook J. Cullimore J. Vandermeer - A. Aucoin [$-0.4M] - L. Kukkonen [$2M] - uJ. Wisniewski* [$3.5M] + A. Zyuzin [$0.3M] + 2 Replacement Defense player(s) [$1M] Forwards M. Havlat R. Vrbata T. Ruutu P. Sharp M. Lapointe T. Salmelainen R. Bourque - J. Hamilton [$2.4M] - B. Smolinski [$3.6M] - uD. Arkhipov [$1M] - uM. Holmqvist [$1.2M] + R. Lang [$2.6M] + Y. Perreault [$1.9M] + S. Samsonov [$1.3M] + J. Williams [$0.5M] + 2 Replacement Forward(s) [$1M] + $8.6M - $13.9M = $-5.4M Or -11 Points u - Unsigned * - Group II, likely to re-sign

Pacific - offseason

San Jose Sharks

Goaltending E. Nabokov - V. Toskala [$1.2M] + 1 Replacement Goalie(s) [$0.5M] Defenseman M. Carle C. Ehrhoff M. Vlasic K. Mclaren - S. Hannan [$3.4M] - J. Gorges [$0.1M] + C. Rivet [$0.7M] + 2 Replacement Defense player(s) [$1M] Forwards J. Thornton P. Marleau J. Cheechoo M. Michalek R. Clowe M. Grier S. Bernier J. Pavelski P. Rissmiller C. Brown M. Goc - M. Bell [$0.1M] - uM. Smith [$0.8M] + 2 Replacement Forward(s) [$1M] + $3.2M - $5.5M = $-2.3M Or -5 Points u - Unsigned * - Group II, likely to re-sign

Phoenix Coyotes

Goaltending M. Tellqvist - uC. Joseph [$3.2M] + 1 Replacement Goalie(s) [$0.5M] Defenseman Z. Michalek E. Jovanovski D. Morris T. Roche N. Boynton M. Jones - uK. Ballard* [$1.8M] + 1 Replacement Defense player(s) [$0.5M] Forwards S. Doan S. Reinprecht M. Zigomanis F. Sjostrom D. Scatchard J. Gratton - L. Nagy [$2.8M] - O. Nolan [$2.7M] - uO. Saprykin* [$3.4M] - Y. Perreault [$1.9M] - uJ. Roenick [$0.7M] - G. Laraque [$2.5M] + N. Kapanen [$-0.6M] + 6 Replacement Forward(s) [$3M] + $3.4M - $19.1M = $-15.7M Or -31 Points u - Unsigned * - Group II, likely to re-sign

Los Angeles Kings

Goaltending D. Cloutier - M. Garon [$1.5M] - uS. Burke [$3M] - uB. Brust* [$0.9M] + 1 Replacement Goalie(s) [$0.5M] Defenseman L. Visnovsky R. Blake K. Dallman - uB. Sopel [$3.6M] - M. Norstrom [$0M] - A. Miller [$1.1M] + T. Preissing [$5.3M] + B. Stuart [$0.7M] + J. Modry [$3.2M] + 1 Replacement Defense player(s) [$0.5M] Forwards A. Frolov A. Kopitar D. Brown D. Armstrong B. Willsie P. O'sullivan S. Thornton R. Ivanans - uM. Cammalleri* [$4.5M] - uS. Avery* [$2.9M] - T. Kostopoulos [$2.1M] - C. Conroy [$2M] + L. Nagy [$2.8M] + K. Calder [$0.4M] + 3 Replacement Forward(s) [$1.5M] + $14.9M - $21.7M = $-6.7M Or -13 Points u - Unsigned * - Group II, likely to re-sign

Dallas Stars

Goaltending M. Turco M. Smith Defenseman S. Zubov P. Boucher S. Robidas T. Daley - D. Sydor [$1.1M] - J. Modry [$3.2M] + M. Green [$1.1M] + M. Norstrom [$0M] + 1 Replacement Defense player(s) [$0.5M] Forwards M. Ribeiro J. Lehtinen M. Modano N. Hagman J. Halpern S. Barnes L. Eriksson - uJ. Jokinen* [$2.3M] - uA. Miettinen* [$1.4M] - uE. Lindros [$1.2M] - uP. Stefan [$1.7M] + T. Petersen [$-0.1M] + T. Fedoruk [$0.9M] + B. Winchester [$0.7M] + 3 Replacement Forward(s) [$1.5M] + $4.7M - $10.9M = $-6.2M Or -12 Points u - Unsigned * - Group II, likely to re-sign

Anaheim Ducks

Goaltending J. Giguere I. Bryzgalov Defenseman S. Niedermayer C. Pronger F. Beauchemin S. O'donnell - S. O'brien [$1.6M] - uJ. Dipenta [$0.9M] + M. Schneider [$4.7M] + S. Hnidy [$2.4M] + 1 Replacement Defense player(s) [$0.5M] Forwards A. Mcdonald C. Kunitz R. Getzlaf C. Perry S. Pahlsson T. Marchant T. Moen R. Niedermayer - uT. Selanne [$6.2M] - uD. Penner* [$1.6M] - R. Shannon [$0.8M] - S. Thornton [$0.9M] + 5 Replacement Forward(s) [$2.5M] + $10.1M - $11.9M = $-1.8M Or -4 Points u - Unsigned * - Group II, likely to re-sign

RFA offer sheet

Kesler
Last season Philadelphia desperately chased after Kesler offering him a contract that was 60% larger than what the media reported the Canucks were offering him ($1.2M). Kesler likely would've signed for $1.5 million, but the stubborn Canucks refused to make any reasonable offers and ended up paying $1.9M

Vanek
If you use the 60% figure as a reasonable approximation of what Buffalo was offering Vanek, it means that Buffalo was likely offering about $4.5 million to Vanek. Vanek insulted and frustrated by the offers Buffalo was giving him, signed with Edmonton at $50M over 7 years.

Compared to UFAs
Now you have to remember that offer sheets are not comparable to UFA contracts as they include additional costs: draft picks. They are likely somewhere between 90-95% of what the same player would command as a UFA.

Value of RFAs
In general RFAs sign for about 75% of their UFA value. The offers made to both Kesler and Vanek were probably closer to 50-60% of their true value. Making these offers significantly less than the 75% they were expecting. Making the offer sheets extremely attractive relative to their current situation. Basically these teams negotiated with these players in "bad faith" as a result they were left with a very large bill.

Conclusion
Therefor these offer sheets are important to make sure that RFAs get fair deals and aren't cheated out of what they are worth.

Bieksa Signed

The last week had a few big signings including Crosby ($45M/5 years), Shanahan resigned in New York. But the one that caught my attention the most was Bieksa ($11.25M/3 years). Now I know, as a resident of Vancouver, how popular this guy is. Bieksa spent years in the AHL only to be called up to replace Jovanovski and did a remarkable job. Now, after one complete NHL season he gets a salary that puts him in the top 15% of the league. That's a pretty rare accomplishment.

I like the offense Bieksa produces, but defensively Bieksa has been a bit poor. In terms of minuses per hour, Bieksa ranks: 24th out of 29 Vancouver players and 9th out of 11 defenseman (Coulombe and Tremblay were worse). And only Mitchell and Chouinard had worse penalty killing statistics than Bieksa. Bieksa has no playoff points in 9 games (although he didn't get much help from the forwards).

There are 31 (out of 190) defenseman who averaged 0.5 points per game or greater in the last season (Bieksa had 0.515 points per game), so in terms of points Bieksa is in the top 15%, however if you consider that defensively he is worse than average his contract appears to be inflated. The whole beauty of a player like Bieksa is the fact that they generally cost about $2 million. For a team like Vancouver that buys to the cap, these little over expenditures could create a bit of a problem.

Secondly, it is often prudent to make sure the player can repeat the good performance before signing a reasonably large contract for 3 years.