July 12, 2007

RFA offer sheet

Last season Philadelphia desperately chased after Kesler offering him a contract that was 60% larger than what the media reported the Canucks were offering him ($1.2M). Kesler likely would've signed for $1.5 million, but the stubborn Canucks refused to make any reasonable offers and ended up paying $1.9M

If you use the 60% figure as a reasonable approximation of what Buffalo was offering Vanek, it means that Buffalo was likely offering about $4.5 million to Vanek. Vanek insulted and frustrated by the offers Buffalo was giving him, signed with Edmonton at $50M over 7 years.

Compared to UFAs
Now you have to remember that offer sheets are not comparable to UFA contracts as they include additional costs: draft picks. They are likely somewhere between 90-95% of what the same player would command as a UFA.

Value of RFAs
In general RFAs sign for about 75% of their UFA value. The offers made to both Kesler and Vanek were probably closer to 50-60% of their true value. Making these offers significantly less than the 75% they were expecting. Making the offer sheets extremely attractive relative to their current situation. Basically these teams negotiated with these players in "bad faith" as a result they were left with a very large bill.

Therefor these offer sheets are important to make sure that RFAs get fair deals and aren't cheated out of what they are worth.

1 comment:

hardyvan said...

the 2 cases are different in that Vanek is a potential superstar, Kessler has never showed any scoring ability, ie the abilty to be better than a 3rd line center. I guess Bobby Clarke, a study into his signings and moves as a GM would be very interesting, that hockey genuis got all excited over Kesler's 30 goals in AHL during the lockout. Who knows maybe Clarke thought that he would be the next Eric Stall.

The bottom line is that Kesler at this stage of his carrer is worth maybe around 1 million and Nonis was forced to over pay, he is currently the 9nth highest paid cancuk this upcoming year, will he be worth that much in nhl's new cap era? I doubt it.

Vanek on the overhand is a potential superstar, but 7.142 million again overpays him and puts pressure on Buffalo when trying to resign players like Maxim Afinogenov (3.3 million, current salary), Tim Connolly 3 million), and Ryan Miller (2.67 million)it will put the sabres in a weak postion of keeping these guys. A similar position they were put in this year losing Briere and Drury who the sabres could not afford at the money given to them. It would have upset the salary structure in Buffalo. As it is if the 3 players mentioned above resign with the Buffalo and keep their current prodcutin curves it could cost them close to 25 million. That would leave around the same amount to round off the rest of the roster.

I can already hear Lindy Ruff screaming over this situation. Welcome to the new NHL Lindey,

cheers Hardy