Playoff matchups - probabilities.

vs. 68% 32% vs. 68% 32% vs. 68% 32% vs. 100% vs. 100% vs. 68% 32% vs. 100% vs. 100% vs. 100% vs. 100% vs. 62% 38% vs. 62% 38% vs. 100% vs. 100% vs. 62% 38% vs. 62% 38%

I hope this is reasonably self explanatory. The team in the left most column has a list of teams it will probably play in the playoffs. For example Boston has a 32% chance of playing Montreal in the first round. There is still a lot undecided in the East, but the west is pretty close to decided...

R.I.P - Vancouver

I try to be as unbiased as possible, but it's hard to watch as the Canucks fall from a dominant part of the Western conference to a complete joke. Losing 5 of the 6 most important games of the season.

Last time this happened [2005-2006]. Auld lost 5 of the last 6 games that mattered. Auld, who was playing in his first full season in the NHL, was forced into the starting position in the Canucks net. He received a significant amount of the criticism for missing the playoffs. Ultimately Auld was traded for Luongo (Auld went on to play terrible in Florida).

The real question is: how much criticism will/should Luongo get for the Canucks missing the playoffs this year? Interestingly, Luongo who makes a mere $6.5 million/year, will likely receive less criticism and will get out of this unscathed compared to Auld of the past.

Note: not specifically saying it's one player's fault. Luongo is an phenomenal goaltender.

Canuck's management will be in an awkward spot, trying to find things that they want to change that they can change. There are simply only a few things on the team that cannot change such as goaltending and defense. Missing the playoffs will make a captain change a little easier to do as Naslund will not likely resign with the Canucks. Morrison also is not going to resign.

Good job Nashville. Good luck, you'll need it against Detroit...

Detailed shift charts - 2008 - List

The detailed shift charts have an average row on them. This is just a list of all the players and their average score.

N Team I Lastname D OFF DEF 1 N.J P Elias 0.36 1.24 0.88 2 PHI S Upshall 0.31 1.20 0.89 3 COL T Arnason 0.29 1.15 0.85 4 L.A D Armstrong 0.28 1.18 0.90 5 DAL L Eriksson 0.28 1.13 0.84 6 TOR A Ponikarovsky 0.27 1.14 0.87 7 T.B M Ouellet 0.27 1.10 0.83 8 CHI R Lang 0.26 1.14 0.88 9 NYI F Meyer IV 0.24 1.07 0.83 10 BUF M Afinogenov 0.23 1.11 0.88 11 VAN D Sedin 0.22 1.12 0.90 12 S.J M Carle 0.22 1.05 0.84 13 MIN P Bouchard 0.22 1.13 0.90 14 CGY D Langkow 0.22 1.11 0.89 15 ANA R Getzlaf 0.21 1.17 0.96 16 PHX M Hanzal 0.21 1.08 0.88 17 NYR B Dubinsky 0.21 1.08 0.88 18 T.B J Hlavac 0.21 1.10 0.89 19 PIT E Malkin 0.20 1.22 1.02 20 VAN M Naslund 0.20 1.11 0.91 21 S.J M Goc 0.20 1.07 0.87 22 DET H Zetterberg 0.20 1.14 0.95 23 FLA R Olesz 0.19 1.09 0.91 24 PIT S Crosby 0.19 1.13 0.94 25 OTT J Corvo 0.19 1.13 0.94 26 N.J K Rachunek 0.19 1.09 0.90 27 L.A A Frolov 0.18 1.20 1.02 28 ANA C Kunitz 0.18 1.17 0.99 29 EDM R Nilsson 0.18 1.07 0.89 30 MIN M Koivu 0.18 1.11 0.94 31 CAR R Whitney 0.18 1.05 0.87 32 CBJ N Zherdev 0.17 1.12 0.95 33 EDM A Hemsky 0.17 1.09 0.91 34 VAN H Sedin 0.17 1.13 0.96 35 CBJ S Fedorov 0.17 1.04 0.86 36 OTT W Redden 0.17 1.16 0.99 37 T.B P Ranger 0.17 1.06 0.90 38 VAN M Weaver 0.17 1.08 0.90 39 L.A B Willsie 0.16 1.05 0.89 40 STL D Backes 0.16 1.04 0.88 41 DAL J Jokinen 0.16 1.06 0.90 42 S.J J Thornton 0.16 1.12 0.96 43 EDM D Penner 0.16 1.05 0.89 44 BUF D Roy 0.16 1.12 0.96 45 N.J Z Parise 0.16 1.16 1.00 46 NYR J Jagr 0.16 1.12 0.96 47 NSH M Erat 0.15 1.10 0.95 48 STL E Johnson 0.15 1.13 0.98 49 PHX E Jovanovski 0.15 1.13 0.98 50 DET N Kronvall 0.15 1.04 0.89 51 NSH J Tootoo 0.15 1.16 1.00 52 CGY J Iginla 0.15 1.12 0.97 53 ATL V Kozlov 0.15 1.05 0.90 54 WSH N Backstrom 0.14 1.08 0.94 55 CAR M Commodore 0.14 1.04 0.90 56 FLA D Booth 0.14 1.06 0.92 57 EDM D Grebeshkov 0.14 1.01 0.87 58 VAN R Kesler 0.14 1.07 0.93 59 MIN K Carney 0.14 1.01 0.87 60 NSH M Gelinas 0.14 1.12 0.97 61 DET P Datsyuk 0.14 1.07 0.92 62 N.J P Martin 0.14 1.09 0.95 63 MTL T Kostopoulos 0.13 1.01 0.87 64 VAN A Burrows 0.13 1.05 0.91 65 CHI D Byfuglien 0.13 1.02 0.89 66 CBJ K Russell 0.13 1.07 0.94 67 NSH J Arnott 0.13 1.06 0.93 68 NYR N Dawes 0.13 1.06 0.93 69 TOR M Sundin 0.13 1.08 0.95 70 CGY K Huselius 0.13 1.05 0.92 71 FLA K Kreps 0.12 1.03 0.90 72 COL P Stastny 0.12 1.07 0.95 73 COL J Liles 0.12 1.03 0.91 74 DET M Samuelsson 0.12 1.07 0.95 75 NSH M Zidlicky 0.12 1.08 0.96 76 NSH R Suter 0.12 1.03 0.90 77 PHI B Coburn 0.12 1.08 0.96 78 BOS D Krejci 0.12 0.96 0.84 79 TOR J Blake 0.12 1.14 1.02 80 FLA S Montador 0.12 1.04 0.92 81 CBJ R Nash 0.11 1.06 0.95 82 STL L Stempniak 0.11 1.11 1.00 83 CHI T Ruutu 0.11 1.01 0.90 84 VAN M Ohlund 0.11 1.07 0.96 85 EDM K Brodziak 0.11 1.02 0.91 86 BOS D Wideman 0.11 1.06 0.95 87 L.A L Visnovsky 0.10 1.01 0.91 88 CGY O Nolan 0.10 1.03 0.93 89 CGY A Tanguay 0.10 1.09 0.99 90 PHX C Weller 0.10 0.93 0.82 91 VAN A Edler 0.10 1.11 1.01 92 COL W Wolski 0.10 1.06 0.96 93 WSH V Kozlov 0.10 1.10 1.01 94 DET T Holmstrom 0.10 1.02 0.92 95 N.J B Gionta 0.10 1.13 1.03 96 PHI J Carter 0.10 1.12 1.02 97 BOS M Sturm 0.10 1.09 0.98 98 STL D King 0.09 0.89 0.80 99 MTL A Kovalev 0.09 1.04 0.95 100 MTL M Streit 0.09 1.00 0.91 101 MTL R Hamrlik 0.09 1.03 0.94 102 DAL J Lundqvist 0.09 0.96 0.88 103 MIN B Rolston 0.09 1.09 1.00 104 MIN J Sheppard 0.09 0.97 0.88 105 MIN K Foster 0.09 1.03 0.94 106 DET J Hudler 0.09 1.01 0.92 107 WSH T Poti 0.09 1.08 0.99 108 PIT R Malone 0.08 1.07 0.99 109 VAN B Isbister 0.08 0.97 0.89 110 NYI S Bergenheim 0.08 1.02 0.94 111 BUF T Vanek 0.08 1.07 0.99 112 CAR S Walker 0.08 1.01 0.93 113 STL D Perron 0.08 0.91 0.84 114 ATL M Hossa 0.08 1.05 0.96 115 BUF T Connolly 0.08 1.09 1.01 116 DAL M Ribeiro 0.08 1.05 0.97 117 WSH M Green 0.07 1.10 1.03 118 ATL P Dupuis 0.07 1.00 0.93 119 STL P Kariya 0.07 1.08 1.00 120 PHX N Kapanen 0.07 1.03 0.96 121 PIT S Gonchar 0.07 1.08 1.01 122 COL M Svatos 0.07 1.08 1.01 123 S.J J Pavelski 0.07 1.02 0.95 124 S.J J Roenick 0.07 0.98 0.92 125 VAN T Pyatt 0.07 1.03 0.96 126 WSH A Ovechkin 0.07 1.12 1.04 127 PHX D Winnik 0.07 1.02 0.95 128 N.J T Zajac 0.07 0.98 0.91 129 NYR M Straka 0.07 1.01 0.95 130 PHI M Richards 0.07 1.02 0.95 131 BOS M Lucic 0.07 1.00 0.93 132 N.J J Langenbrunner 0.07 1.02 0.95 133 ANA M Schneider 0.06 1.07 1.01 134 ANA G Parros 0.06 0.88 0.83 135 FLA R Dvorak 0.06 0.95 0.89 136 CGY D Hale 0.06 1.01 0.95 137 NSH A Radulov 0.06 1.05 1.00 138 PHX Z Michalek 0.06 1.02 0.96 139 FLA S Weiss 0.06 0.99 0.92 140 EDM S Horcoff 0.06 1.05 0.99 141 MTL T Plekanec 0.06 1.02 0.97 142 MTL F Bouillon 0.06 0.98 0.92 143 T.B F Kuba 0.06 1.03 0.97 144 CHI P Kane 0.06 1.02 0.96 145 DET D Cleary 0.06 1.02 0.96 146 OTT S Donovan 0.06 1.03 0.98 147 NYI R Martinek 0.06 1.03 0.96 148 NYI B Comeau 0.06 0.99 0.93 149 N.J A Greene 0.06 1.07 1.00 150 WSH A Semin 0.06 1.03 0.97 151 BOS S Thornton 0.06 0.90 0.85 152 OTT M Fisher 0.06 1.02 0.96 153 L.A P O'sullivan 0.05 1.09 1.04 154 MTL A Kastsitsyn 0.05 1.00 0.95 155 DAL S Robidas 0.05 1.03 0.97 156 DAL B Morrow 0.05 1.02 0.97 157 MIN M Parrish 0.05 0.97 0.91 158 MIN B Radivojevic 0.05 0.94 0.88 159 DET A Lilja 0.05 1.00 0.96 160 ATL R Holik 0.05 0.99 0.94 161 TOR I White 0.05 1.07 1.02 162 DET J Franzen 0.05 1.01 0.97 163 NYI C Campoli 0.05 0.94 0.89 164 NYI J Vasicek 0.05 0.98 0.93 165 NYR M Staal 0.05 1.00 0.95 166 TOR H Gill 0.05 0.96 0.91 167 BUF H Tallinder 0.05 1.07 1.02 168 COL M Hejduk 0.05 1.01 0.96 169 NSH V Koistinen 0.04 1.08 1.03 170 NSH S Weber 0.04 1.03 0.99 171 ATL J Slater 0.04 1.06 1.03 172 STL K Tkachuk 0.04 1.03 0.99 173 PIT P Sykora 0.04 0.97 0.93 174 PHX S Doan 0.04 1.06 1.02 175 MTL S Koivu 0.04 1.03 0.99 176 S.J C Ehrhoff 0.04 1.01 0.97 177 MIN B Burns 0.04 1.05 1.01 178 MIN E Belanger 0.04 1.04 1.00 179 CHI M Lapointe 0.04 0.91 0.87 180 ATL T Enstrom 0.04 1.03 0.99 181 BUF J Spacek 0.04 1.04 1.00 182 S.J C Rivet 0.04 1.05 1.01 183 PHI R Jones 0.04 1.06 1.02 184 PHI M Knuble 0.04 0.97 0.93 185 T.B V Prospal 0.04 1.07 1.02 186 OTT C Neil 0.04 0.93 0.89 187 TOR N Antropov 0.04 1.00 0.97 188 BUF A Kotalik 0.04 0.90 0.86 189 BUF M Ryan 0.04 0.95 0.90 190 BOS Z Chara 0.04 1.07 1.03 191 L.A B Stuart 0.03 1.11 1.07 192 L.A M Cammalleri 0.03 1.03 1.00 193 L.A T Preissing 0.03 1.00 0.98 194 FLA O Jokinen 0.03 1.08 1.05 195 FLA C Murphy 0.03 0.97 0.93 196 ATL E Perrin 0.03 1.02 0.99 197 FLA B Mclean 0.03 1.06 1.03 198 EDM J Pitkanen 0.03 1.08 1.05 199 PHX S Reinprecht 0.03 1.01 0.97 200 TOR D Tucker 0.03 0.98 0.95 201 CBJ G Brule 0.03 1.02 0.99 202 S.J P Marleau 0.03 1.02 0.99 203 DAL M Niskanen 0.03 1.06 1.03 204 T.B C Macdonald 0.03 1.04 1.01 205 S.J J Cheechoo 0.03 1.01 0.98 206 OTT C Schubert 0.03 1.15 1.12 207 NYI M Bergeron 0.03 1.05 1.03 208 BUF N Paetsch 0.03 0.92 0.89 209 ANA C Perry 0.02 1.01 0.98 210 L.A D Brown 0.02 0.96 0.94 211 FLA R Zednik 0.02 0.94 0.92 212 CBJ R Hainsey 0.02 1.03 1.01 213 CAR E Cole 0.02 1.01 0.99 214 ATL C Thorburn 0.02 0.95 0.93 215 STL B Boyes 0.02 1.05 1.04 216 STL J Mckee 0.02 1.01 0.99 217 PHX D Carcillo 0.02 0.97 0.95 218 PHX R Vrbata 0.02 1.05 1.03 219 EDM T Gilbert 0.02 1.08 1.06 220 PIT C Armstrong 0.02 1.04 1.02 221 PIT M Talbot 0.02 0.95 0.93 222 S.J M Michalek 0.02 0.98 0.96 223 DAL N Grossman 0.02 0.98 0.96 224 T.B B Richards 0.02 1.00 0.98 225 CHI D Keith 0.02 1.06 1.04 226 MIN M Skoula 0.02 1.01 0.99 227 DET N Lidstrom 0.02 1.01 1.00 228 DET C Chelios 0.02 1.00 0.98 229 NYI A Hilbert 0.02 0.97 0.96 230 BUF J Pominville 0.02 1.02 1.00 231 BUF J Hecht 0.02 1.04 1.02 232 CAR F Kaberle 0.02 0.97 0.94 233 NYR D Girardi 0.02 1.03 1.01 234 NYR M Rozsival 0.02 1.03 1.01 235 NYR S Gomez 0.02 1.09 1.07 236 ATL K Klee 0.02 0.99 0.98 237 OTT A Meszaros 0.02 1.05 1.03 238 BOS G Metropolit 0.02 1.05 1.03 239 NYI T Hunter 0.02 1.06 1.04 240 NYI A Sutton 0.02 0.97 0.95 241 WSH T Fleischmann 0.02 1.00 0.99 242 OTT R Robitaille 0.02 0.97 0.95 243 CGY S Yelle 0.01 0.87 0.86 244 WSH B Gordon 0.01 0.92 0.90 245 CAR E Staal 0.01 1.07 1.06 246 PIT J Staal 0.01 1.03 1.01 247 CHI J Wisniewski 0.01 0.94 0.93 248 STL B Jackman 0.01 1.01 1.00 249 T.B M Lundin 0.01 1.05 1.04 250 WSH J Schultz 0.01 0.92 0.91 251 OTT D Heatley 0.01 1.05 1.04 252 NYR P Prucha 0.01 0.92 0.90 253 T.B D Janik 0.01 0.95 0.94 254 MTL C Higgins 0.01 1.04 1.03 255 BOS P Kessel 0.01 1.03 1.02 256 NYI R Fedotenko 0.01 0.99 0.97 257 BOS P Axelsson 0.01 0.99 0.98 258 FLA J Cullimore 0.01 0.97 0.96 259 ANA C Pronger 0.00 0.98 0.98 260 CGY A Aucoin 0.00 0.96 0.95 261 NSH S Nichol 0.00 0.98 0.99 262 PHX P Mueller 0.00 1.06 1.07 263 FLA J Bouwmeester 0.00 1.02 1.02 264 PIT D Sydor 0.00 1.07 1.07 265 PIT G Laraque 0.00 0.97 0.97 266 TOR K Wellwood 0.00 0.85 0.85 267 MTL B Smolinski 0.00 1.02 1.02 268 MTL M Ryder 0.00 1.02 1.03 269 DAL K Barch 0.00 0.93 0.93 270 T.B M Darche 0.00 0.93 0.93 271 COL B Clark 0.00 1.08 1.09 272 DAL S Zubov 0.00 1.02 1.02 273 N.J D Clarkson 0.00 0.95 0.96 274 CGY A Eriksson 0.00 1.01 1.01 275 PHI R Umberger 0.00 1.02 1.02 276 NYR F Tyutin 0.00 1.02 1.02 277 ATL I Kovalchuk 0.00 0.98 0.97 278 N.J S Brylin 0.00 0.89 0.88 279 NYI M Comrie 0.00 1.04 1.04 280 CHI B Sopel 0.00 1.00 1.00 281 NYI M Sillinger 0.00 1.03 1.03 282 ANA T Marchant -0.01 0.99 1.01 283 EDM M Reasoner -0.01 0.94 0.95 284 MTL J Gorges -0.01 0.90 0.91 285 COL K Skrastins -0.01 1.00 1.02 286 TOR M Stajan -0.01 0.99 0.99 287 TOR T Kaberle -0.01 1.04 1.05 288 PIT T Kennedy -0.01 0.97 0.98 289 CHI J Toews -0.01 1.01 1.02 290 CBJ D Fritsche -0.01 1.05 1.06 291 CHI B Seabrook -0.01 1.01 1.02 292 NSH D Hamhuis -0.01 1.04 1.05 293 NSH V Fiddler -0.01 0.99 0.99 294 OTT D Alfredsson -0.01 0.96 0.97 295 OTT J Spezza -0.01 1.02 1.02 296 CAR R Brind'amour -0.01 0.92 0.93 297 N.J D Zubrus -0.01 0.99 1.00 298 N.J J Oduya -0.01 0.95 0.97 299 PHI S Hartnell -0.01 0.90 0.91 300 PHI S Kapanen -0.01 0.97 0.98 301 BOS M Stuart -0.01 0.96 0.97 302 ANA K Huskins -0.02 0.92 0.94 303 NSH J Ortmeyer -0.02 0.85 0.86 304 CBJ R Klesla -0.02 0.96 0.98 305 CAR C Larose -0.02 0.95 0.97 306 CAR T Gleason -0.02 0.91 0.93 307 PHX N Boynton -0.02 0.98 1.00 308 PIT K Letang -0.02 1.00 1.02 309 MTL S Kastsitsyn -0.02 0.95 0.97 310 CHI Y Perreault -0.02 0.92 0.94 311 NSH J Dumont -0.02 1.02 1.04 312 MIN S Veilleux -0.02 0.95 0.97 313 BUF T Lydman -0.02 1.01 1.03 314 NYR P Mara -0.02 0.96 0.99 315 T.B N Tarnasky -0.02 0.92 0.95 316 ATL A Zhitnik -0.02 1.04 1.06 317 BOS M Savard -0.02 1.08 1.10 318 NYI M Satan -0.02 0.99 1.01 319 L.A J Modry -0.03 0.94 0.98 320 L.A M Handzus -0.03 0.97 1.00 321 FLA V Peltonen -0.03 0.98 1.02 322 CGY C Conroy -0.03 0.99 1.02 323 CAR D Seidenberg -0.03 1.02 1.05 324 FLA N Horton -0.03 1.05 1.08 325 PIT R Scuderi -0.03 0.89 0.91 326 S.J S Bernier -0.03 0.91 0.94 327 T.B A Karlsson -0.03 0.82 0.85 328 COL J Finger -0.03 0.93 0.96 329 COL A Brunette -0.03 1.00 1.02 330 MIN M Gaborik -0.03 1.04 1.07 331 DET V Filppula -0.03 0.94 0.97 332 OTT A Vermette -0.03 0.98 1.02 333 OTT C Kelly -0.03 0.88 0.91 334 TOR A Steen -0.03 1.01 1.04 335 BUF D Stafford -0.03 0.94 0.97 336 N.J V Vishnevski -0.03 0.94 0.97 337 NYR B Betts -0.03 0.89 0.92 338 PHI K Timonen -0.03 0.96 0.99 339 DAL T Daley -0.03 0.98 1.01 340 CAR A Ladd -0.03 0.93 0.96 341 TOR B Devereaux -0.03 0.96 0.98 342 N.J A Asham -0.03 0.94 0.98 343 CBJ A Foote -0.03 0.96 0.99 344 VAN A Miller -0.03 0.94 0.98 345 FLA B Mezei -0.04 0.98 1.02 346 NSH D Hordichuk -0.04 0.78 0.82 347 STL C Backman -0.04 0.94 0.97 348 ANA R Niedermayer -0.04 0.98 1.02 349 EDM J Stoll -0.04 0.97 1.01 350 PIT R Whitney -0.04 1.03 1.06 351 COL R Smyth -0.04 0.99 1.04 352 FLA B Allen -0.04 0.94 0.98 353 ATL S Mccarthy -0.04 0.98 1.02 354 ATL E Boulton -0.04 0.90 0.94 355 WSH M Bradley -0.04 0.97 1.01 356 BUF B Campbell -0.04 1.00 1.04 357 NYR R Callahan -0.04 1.00 1.03 358 CAR B Hedican -0.04 1.10 1.15 359 ATL B Larsen -0.04 0.91 0.94 360 ANA F Beauchemin -0.05 1.05 1.10 361 CGY D Phaneuf -0.05 1.08 1.13 362 CBJ M Malhotra -0.05 0.97 1.02 363 CAR C Stillman -0.05 0.91 0.96 364 FLA G Campbell -0.05 0.95 1.00 365 PIT E Christensen -0.05 0.93 0.98 366 DAL N Hagman -0.05 1.07 1.13 367 DAL S Ott -0.05 0.92 0.97 368 OTT N Foligno -0.05 0.85 0.90 369 NYR B Shanahan -0.05 1.03 1.08 370 NYR S Avery -0.05 0.97 1.02 371 BOS J Reich -0.05 0.95 1.00 372 CBJ M Peca -0.05 0.96 1.01 373 EDM Z Stortini -0.05 0.90 0.95 374 CBJ J Hejda -0.06 0.99 1.04 375 CBJ D Vyborny -0.06 0.84 0.90 376 CBJ J Boll -0.06 0.89 0.94 377 EDM S Staios -0.06 0.96 1.02 378 VAN M Raymond -0.06 0.95 1.01 379 PHX F Sjostrom -0.06 0.95 1.01 380 PHX D Morris -0.06 0.97 1.04 381 TOR B Mccabe -0.06 0.97 1.03 382 EDM L Smid -0.06 0.90 0.96 383 STL R Johnson -0.06 0.93 0.99 384 COL I Laperriere -0.06 0.88 0.95 385 MIN N Schultz -0.06 0.97 1.03 386 CGY C Sarich -0.06 0.95 1.01 387 PHI J Smith -0.06 0.92 0.98 388 T.B V Lecavalier -0.06 1.03 1.10 389 T.B A Roy -0.06 0.86 0.91 390 T.B B Lukowich -0.06 0.89 0.95 391 BOS A Ward -0.06 0.92 0.98 392 T.B M St. Louis -0.06 1.00 1.06 393 BUF N Pratt -0.06 0.87 0.93 394 L.A R Blake -0.07 0.97 1.04 395 L.A K Calder -0.07 0.88 0.96 396 L.A A Kopitar -0.07 0.98 1.05 397 CGY R Regehr -0.07 0.92 0.99 398 WSH D Steckel -0.07 0.90 0.97 399 STL E Brewer -0.07 0.95 1.02 400 MTL M Komisarek -0.07 1.00 1.07 401 PIT B Orpik -0.07 0.93 1.00 402 MTL M Lapierre -0.07 0.89 0.95 403 DAL J Halpern -0.07 0.92 0.98 404 T.B C Gratton -0.07 0.96 1.03 405 COL B Guite -0.07 0.93 1.01 406 MIN P Demitra -0.07 1.05 1.12 407 EDM S Gagner -0.07 0.96 1.02 408 DAL M Modano -0.07 1.04 1.11 409 CAR G Wesley -0.07 0.90 0.98 410 N.J M Rupp -0.07 0.86 0.93 411 PHI L Kukkonen -0.07 0.98 1.06 412 TOR P Kubina -0.07 1.00 1.06 413 BOS A Ference -0.07 0.98 1.05 414 BUF A Mair -0.07 0.93 1.00 415 OTT L Richardson -0.07 0.92 0.99 416 DET B Rafalski -0.07 0.99 1.06 417 FLA R Salei -0.08 0.96 1.03 418 WSH B Laich -0.08 0.96 1.04 419 CAR T Letowski -0.08 0.87 0.95 420 COL K Sauer -0.08 0.92 1.00 421 MTL G Latendresse -0.08 0.88 0.96 422 NSH R Bonk -0.08 0.88 0.96 423 WSH S Morrisonn -0.08 0.96 1.04 424 DET A Downey -0.08 0.89 0.97 425 BUF D Paille -0.08 0.95 1.03 426 BUF P Gaustad -0.08 0.87 0.95 427 BUF D Kalinin -0.08 0.91 0.99 428 FLA J Stumpel -0.09 0.83 0.93 429 ATL G Exelby -0.09 0.90 0.99 430 COL J Hlinka -0.09 1.05 1.14 431 S.J M Vlasic -0.09 0.92 1.01 432 MIN K Johnsson -0.09 0.92 1.02 433 S.J K Mclaren -0.09 1.02 1.11 434 ATL N Havelid -0.09 0.98 1.07 435 PHI D Hatcher -0.09 1.03 1.12 436 OTT D Mcammond -0.09 0.79 0.88 437 BOS C Kobasew -0.09 0.92 1.00 438 DAL S Barnes -0.09 0.88 0.97 439 CGY M Lombardi -0.10 0.99 1.09 440 NSH D Legwand -0.10 0.97 1.07 441 STL J Mcclement -0.10 0.91 1.01 442 PHX M Tjarnqvist -0.10 0.88 0.98 443 CBJ J Chimera -0.10 1.05 1.14 444 CBJ O Tollefsen -0.10 0.91 1.01 445 DET B Lebda -0.10 0.99 1.09 446 NYI B Gervais -0.10 0.98 1.08 447 CAR M Cullen -0.10 1.05 1.14 448 PHI D Briere -0.10 0.97 1.07 449 WSH D Brashear -0.10 0.79 0.89 450 BOS P Schaefer -0.10 1.00 1.10 451 NYI R Park -0.10 0.98 1.08 452 NSH G De Vries -0.10 0.95 1.05 453 MIN T Fedoruk -0.10 0.96 1.07 454 ANA T Bertuzzi -0.11 0.88 0.98 455 STL J Mayers -0.11 0.90 1.02 456 PHX M York -0.11 0.86 0.98 457 COL S Hannan -0.11 0.97 1.08 458 S.J M Grier -0.11 0.99 1.09 459 PHI J Lupul -0.11 0.94 1.05 460 N.J M Mottau -0.11 0.98 1.09 461 NYI B Guerin -0.11 0.99 1.10 462 BOS G Murray -0.11 0.96 1.07 463 NYI B Witt -0.11 0.97 1.08 464 ANA T Moen -0.12 0.91 1.03 465 CGY D Boyd -0.12 1.04 1.17 466 PHX K Ballard -0.12 0.91 1.04 467 CHI P Sharp -0.12 0.98 1.10 468 S.J D Murray -0.12 0.88 1.00 469 DAL A Miettinen -0.12 0.91 1.03 470 OTT C Phillips -0.12 0.90 1.03 471 N.J R Pelley -0.12 0.85 0.97 472 PHI R Cote -0.12 0.77 0.89 473 ANA S O'donnell -0.13 0.89 1.03 474 MTL A Markov -0.13 1.03 1.16 475 DAL M Norstrom -0.13 0.92 1.05 476 VAN S Salo -0.13 0.94 1.06 477 T.B J Ward -0.14 0.83 0.97 478 WSH M Jurcina -0.14 0.87 1.01 479 BUF A Peters -0.14 0.89 1.03 480 NYR C Drury -0.14 0.96 1.10 481 NYR C Orr -0.14 0.80 0.95 482 CGY M Smith -0.14 0.76 0.90 483 NYI B Berard -0.14 0.95 1.09 484 EDM F Pisani -0.14 0.92 1.06 485 L.A R Ivanans -0.15 0.81 0.96 486 STL B Salvador -0.15 0.85 1.00 487 PIT J Ruutu -0.15 0.84 0.99 488 CHI R Bourque -0.15 0.94 1.09 489 S.J T Mitchell -0.15 0.88 1.03 490 STL D Hinote -0.15 0.78 0.93 491 NYR J Strudwick -0.15 0.85 1.01 492 DET T Kopecky -0.15 0.89 1.04 493 VAN W Mitchell -0.16 0.92 1.08 494 CHI A Burish -0.16 0.83 0.99 495 T.B S O'brien -0.16 0.97 1.13 496 VAN M Cooke -0.16 0.85 1.01 497 DET K Draper -0.16 0.84 1.00 498 OTT A Volchenkov -0.16 0.85 1.01 499 WSH M Pettinger -0.17 0.88 1.05 500 TOR C Kilger -0.17 0.90 1.07 501 EDM A Cogliano -0.17 0.98 1.15 502 ATL T White -0.17 0.87 1.04 503 TOR A Wozniewski -0.17 0.94 1.11 504 L.A J Johnson -0.18 0.94 1.12 505 WSH J Erskine -0.18 0.86 1.04 506 MTL M Dandenault -0.18 0.94 1.12 507 S.J P Rissmiller -0.18 0.88 1.06 508 CAR N Wallin -0.18 0.88 1.06 509 N.J J Pandolfo -0.18 0.87 1.05 510 PHI J Dowd -0.18 0.83 1.01 511 DET D Drake -0.19 0.84 1.03 512 NYR R Hollweg -0.19 0.76 0.95 513 BOS P Nokelainen -0.19 0.83 1.02 514 L.A S Thornton -0.20 0.84 1.04 515 CGY E Godard -0.20 0.74 0.94 516 TOR J Tlusty -0.20 0.77 0.98 517 CBJ J Novotny -0.20 0.87 1.08 518 CAR J Hamilton -0.20 0.85 1.05 519 NSH G Zanon -0.21 0.86 1.07 520 VAN B Ritchie -0.22 0.90 1.12 521 N.J J Madden -0.23 0.90 1.13 522 L.A J Giuliano -0.24 0.73 0.97 523 ANA S Pahlsson -0.24 0.86 1.10 524 ANA B May -0.26 0.71 0.98 525 NSH J Smithson -0.26 0.69 0.95 526 VAN T Linden -0.26 0.93 1.20 527 DET K Maltby -0.27 0.78 1.04 528 MIN A Voros -0.27 0.83 1.11 529 N.J C White -0.29 0.83 1.12 530 ATL M Recchi -0.30 0.84 1.13 531 PIT A Hall -0.31 0.70 1.01 532 FLA T Glass -0.33 0.70 1.02

Shot Quality 2008

As at least one person noticed I made a few major adjustments to my shot quality model. Some people may have noticed Detroit shots weren't scoring as often as the model predicted this year. As it turns out all of Detroits shots that were deemed "high quality" occurred at home, likely meaning the home scorer are measuring and evaluating shots differently than most teams (shots were deemed 40% more likely to go in then they should have). The Islanders were in a similar situation (possibly sharing scorers from the Rangers). The Rangers were still be under adjusted from previous seasons so I bumped that one a little bit more.

I removed a few minor factors from other teams that appeared to hurt rather than help the model. As a result, Detroits goaltending looks a lot worse (makes sense, since Hasek is 40+ and Osgood is not known as an amazing goalie). I was disappointed to DiPietro's numbers fall, but that's how it will have to be for now.

You can see the changes @ my site.

Detailed shift charts - 2008

Some people may remember my old detailed shift charts from last season. The goal of these charts is to show who is just a part of a strong (or weak team) and who is making a difference (either positive or negative).

If all you care about are results than just look at the last row called average for the player you are interested in. 1.14 suggests the player scores (or has scored against him) 14% more goals then one would be expected when you consider who he plays with. Similarly, 0.86 suggest the player scores (or has scored against him) 14% fewer goals then one would expect when you consider who he plays with. Remember these are only for even strength. For example Daniel Sedin has 9% more goals then one would expect and 14% fewer goals against.

Here's the data:
Northwest
Vancouver Canucks
Minnesota Wild
Edmonton Oilers
Colorado Avalanche
Calgary Flames
Central
St. Louis Blues
Nashville Predators
Detroit Red Wings
Columbus Blue Jackets
Chicago Blackhawks
Pacific
San Jose Sharks
Phoenix Coyotes
Los Angeles Kings
Dallas Stars
Anaheim Ducks
Atlantic
New Jersey Devils
New York Islanders
New York Rangers
Philadelphia Flyers
Pittsburgh Penguins
Northeast
Boston Bruins
Buffalo Sabres
Montreal Canadiens
Ottawa Senators
Toronto Maple Leafs
Southeast
Atlanta Thrashers
Carolina Hurricanes
Florida Panthers
Tampa Bay Lightning
Washington Capitals

A quick explanation of the short forms:

• Time% - this represents the percentage of the row player's ice time that column player played with the row player. [(row and column time)/(row time)]
  
• +% - this represents the percentage of the row player's goals for that column player had with the row player [(row and column goals for)/(row goals for)]
• -% - this represents the percentage of the row player's goals against that column player had with the row player [(row and column goals against)/(row goals against)]
• +R = +%/Time%
• -R = -%/Time%
• Time measured in seconds.

Playoff Race

Eastern Playoff Race

Since my previous article about the Eastern playoff race two teams predicted to have an easy time getting in have tanked. Ottawa has gone 3-8 (2-3 in OT) and Philadelphia has gone 5-9 (1-3 OT), however Canadiens and the Devils have now statistically secured their spot (>95% chance they'll make the playoffs if every game were a coin toss) and the Penguins are one win away from the same thing. Ottawa still stands an excellent chance of making the playoffs, but Philadelphia has joined the bubble teams.

Rangers and Bruins are pretty close to being locked in as my numbers show >90% chance of making the playoffs.

The Bubble teams
Bruins - As long as Thomas doesn't start they might be ok. They're having major issues, but they don't need to be amazing to make the playoffs, just get by so I don't see them falling out at this point.
Flyers - 7 losses in a row will take you from a playoff spot to almost out. After such a great start they now have a 25% chance of missing the playoffs. Still 75% chance of making it isn't that bad.
Hurricanes - Just have to win the division
Sabres - Odds don't look so good for them. They'll have to have a great March to even have a chance. (30% chance to make playoffs)
Washington - Must catch Hurricanes. They had a good chance of making the playoffs until Carolina acquired Corvo (9 points in 11 games), then it was over...

The rest are out!
There are two Boston - Buffalo games at the end of season, for Buffalo it could come down to having to win both of those games.
There are also two Carolina - Washington games left to be played at the end of the season.

Western Conference
There are four teams that are currently guaranteed to make the playoffs: Sharks, Stars, Wings, Ducks. [Note: Ducks are 16-8 (3-2 OT) since Janaury 1st]

Bubble teams [Northwest plus Chicago and Nashville minus Oilers]
Flames, Minnesota, Avalanche, Canucks - It's anyone's guess as to which of these four teams will make the playoffs, however keep in mind there are about 7 game in the last three weeks for each of these teams against each other. The most likely situation is that 3 out of these 4 are in.
Nashville - Need to pick it up if they want to catch the Northwest.
Chicago - I'm amazed they're still in the race. Still have a long way to go, but 3 wins in a row against strong teams is a great start.