September 28, 2007

Adjusted bookie standings

I like "bookie" predictions due to the fact that they are backed by cash instead of just hot air. That being said, even bookie predictions have systemic problems or even systemic biases. Some can be fixed others cannot. Certain teams attract money from betters and other simply cannot. Due to the fact that very few people cheer for Nashville it may in fact suffer some devaluation.

However, some predictions are just stupid. For example, the Atlantic division last season was a joke, not only was Philadelphia the worst team by a far margin. Overall the division was below average or average. This season Pittsburgh doesn't get to play Philadelphia 8 times to stack their stats as Philadelphia will quite possibly make the playoffs. The bookies from the above prediction state that the Atlantic division will go from below average to the best division by a large margin in a matter of one season.

So, what I did is I adjusted the bookie's standings so that all the divisions performed the same this season as last season.

When I look at those standings I have a hard time finding fault with anything on there [except the four Northwestern team's making the playoff and only one central team and all four Northeastern teams making it].

I find it interesting either way...


Anonymous said...

The west rankings are very good and pretty close to what I would/will have when I make my predictions. The east I am not so sure about but then I think the east is so tight that any number of teams could make the playoffs.

I am not sure Ottawa will finish that high. They have lost some depth and some of their guys aren't healthy. Emery won't start the season as the starter. Fisher is injured with the same groin injury that slowed him down last year and groin injuries are often nagging injuries he has a history of injury proneness. Redden isn't 100% healthy either and also hasn't been durable over the past couple years. I also think the loss of Schaefer will hurt secondary scoring as he has been the Sens 5th leading point producer the past 2 seasons.

I don't see Montreal making the playoffs in the east. They just won't get enough consistent offense. I also think that any of Tampa, Carolina, Atlanta and Florida could make win the division or could miss the playoffs. It is difficult to differentiate those teams as they all have some strengths but also all have significant holes.

Vic Ferrari said...

The influence of market is not significant in this type of wager with these types of holds. Your premise is wrong.

Using the results of the previous season's division point totals to predict the future is reasonable. Sensible people everywhere will agree on that. But the fact is that, historically, betting lines are a much better indicator of future division performance than previous season results. So you are diluting their conclusions here, not refining them.

Makes sense, no?