In the last article I concluded that: “I have good reason to conclude that overtime occurs randomly given any two team and that the results once in overtime are completely random.” My analysis before was focusing on global overtimes in order to know how to predict what games will go to overtime in order to make my point predictions more accurate. The graph below shocked me the most during my previous analysis, that is to say teams with a lot of regulation wins were unable to perform better in the overtime session, this is both shootouts and the 5 minute four on four. Of course I wrongly concluded that this suggests the results are random, however I think most readers will agree that if skill doesn't determine who wins, then what on earth does win?
In the NHL you can always find teams that fall outside if the normal 95% range due to the fact there are 30 teams, and if I'm 95% confident that each team is in this range than I could say that 5% should be outside of this range so 1.5 teams should be on the outside on average, so 2 teams outside this range is actually reasonable. If you wanted a range that includes all teams you'd want a 99% or 99.5% range (3 standard deviations).
Has two hypothesis:
Null hypothesis claim initially assumed to be true [the data is random]
Alternative hypothesis: a assertion that is contradictory to the Null hypothesis [the data isn't random]
When we do the test we have two options:
Reject the Null hypothesis in favour of the alternative [reject: "the data is random" for "the data isn't random"]
Do not reject the Null hypothesis and continue with the belief that our initial claim was true ["the data is random"]
This does not prove the data is random, simply that its not different enough from random that we should conclude otherwise. This is exactly what I'm saying: there's insufficient evidence for me to use anything other than a random variable in my model.
Due to the nature of this site I'm often a little loose on the concept of "not rejecting" and"accepting" (they're different), just because this isn't supposed to be perfectly formal.