## May 20, 2008

### Stars vs. Wings

 DET DAL # G EG S% G EG SV% Game 1: 4 2.7 86.0 1 0.7 85.5 Game 2: 2 3.0 86.0 1 0.7 93.5 Game 3: 5 3.1 86.9 2 1.5 84.2 Game 4: 1 2.3 86.6 3 2.2 95.7 Game 5: 1 1.8 91.5 2 2.3 94.6 Game 6: 4 3.0 93.0 1 1.4 86.9 Series [4-2] 17 15.9 88.9 10 8.8 89.5

Can Dallas shut down Detroit? As you can see from the table below and the percentages on table here, it will be a difficult series for Dallas to win. They'll need a lot of luck and a lot of hard work. Detroit keeps showing us they're the real deal this year.

 DET DAL Winner Even Strength GF 2.66 2.54 EGF 2.64 2.17 GA 1.83 2.31 EGA 1.71 2.06 SV% 89.3% 88.8% Power Play GF 6.44 5.92 EGF 8.62 4.8 GA 1.33 0.59 EGA 0.48 0.68 SV% 88.8% 92%
 The winner column displays the dominant team in that category. The more pictures of the team's logo the more dominant the team is in that categoryAll the non-percentage numbers are scoring rates. For example on the first row, the Detroit Red Wings have an even strength scoring rate of 2.66 goal for per hour. [GF = goals for, GA = goals against Exx = expected xx, SV% = shot quality neutral save percentage].In the power play section in order to calculate the expected scoring rates I multiplied the goals for rate of one team and the goals against rate of the other and divide by the league average in order to get the expected rate for these two teams combined. So for example, the Detroit Red Wings have a power play goals for rate of 7.98 and the Dallas Stars have a penalty killing goals against rate of 5.24. So 7.98*5.24/6.5=6.44 [league average is 6.5].Outperforming expected goals for is a sign of a lucky team. Outperforming expected goals against is a sign of either a good goaltender or luck as well.Each category listed has a different importance to winning, so be careful how you read these. Being able to score short-handed isn't going to win a lot of hockey games.

#### 1 comment:

Stevens8204 said...

Dallas has figured this out...now can they win a game 6 and 7...that is the burning question. The numbers say no but you never know.