May 3, 2008

Dallas @ San Jose

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Up WWWLL @ VVHHV:
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 2-1 (.667)
- Whowins.
A 3-0 series has gone back to 3-2 only 11 times, with 2 complete come-backs.
If the lower ranked team got the 3-0 series lead initially there's been 1 come-back in 3 tries, but if the higher ranked team got the series lead there has been 1 come-back in 8 tries.

That said, San Jose was lucky to get out of that game with a win as you can see by the numbers below for game #5. I Don't expected that Turco will be that bad again and San Jose will likely not be as lucky.

As an aside: the NHL made the correct call for the goal that was kicked in the net by Morrow.

S.J
DAL
#GEGS%
GEGSV%
Game 1:22.087.232.390.2
Game 2:23.585.552.794.4
Game 3:11.883.721.294.6
Game 4:22.590.211.092.2
Game 5:31.493.022.879.0
Series [2-3]1011.288.21310.091.3


Another divisional match up. If Dallas can control what Calgary couldn't maybe they stand a chance. I don't know these teams well enough to say anything.


S.JDALWinner
Even Strength
GF2.172.54
EGF2.882.17
GA2.12.31
EGA1.832.06
SV%88.5%88.8%
Power Play
GF5.585.21
EGF8.365.46
GA1.510.95
EGA0.520.9
SV%91.3%92%



The winner column displays the dominant team in that category. The more pictures of the team's logo the more dominant the team is in that category

All the non-percentage numbers are scoring rates. For example on the first row, the San Jose Sharks have an even strength scoring rate of 2.17 goal for per hour. [GF = goals for, GA = goals against Exx = expected xx, SV% = shot quality neutral save percentage].

In the power play section in order to calculate the expected scoring rates I multiplied the goals for rate of one team and the goals against rate of the other and divide by the league average in order to get the expected rate for these two teams combined. So for example, the San Jose Sharks have a power play goals for rate of 6.92 and the Dallas Stars have a penalty killing goals against rate of 5.24. So 6.92*5.24/6.5=5.58 [league average is 6.5].

Outperforming expected goals for is a sign of a lucky team. Outperforming expected goals against is a sign of either a good goaltender or luck as well.

Each category listed has a different importance to winning, so be careful how you read these. Being able to score short-handed isn't going to win a lot of hockey games.

3 comments:

The Commentator said...

The Stars look like they have seven players out there.

Jeff J said...

I was just made aware of the XML tables ESPN uses for their sshot charts:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/shotchart/shotXMLbuilder?gameId=280430009%26totalShots=42

Are you using these for your shot quality stuff?

JavaGeek said...

I use these:
Play-by-play

I've tried using data from CBS, but it didn't ever match the NHL data. And it didn't predict scoring very well.

The ESPN stuff there actually looks really good (quick glance over it). I'll see if I can scrape it and build a model around it.

Thanks