May 20, 2008

Pens vs. Flyers

PIT PHI
#GEGS% GEGSV%
Game 1:42.889.121.886.0
Game 2:45.189.121.894.2
Game 3:44.586.010.793.5
Game 4:22.294.745.591.1
Game 5:62.610001.177.4
Series [4-1]2017.292.8910.989.7


A well matched series. The only advantage Pittsburgh is seeing for the series is home ice advantage. Pittsburgh is more responsible defensively than Philadelphia. And the Flyers have a marginally better special teams compared to Pittsburgh. This is the series to watch in this round.


PITPHIWinner
Even Strength
GF2.522.38
EGF2.612.52
GA2.152.52
EGA2.472.82
SV%91.3%91%
Power Play
GF7.098.64
EGF7.127.42
GA1.740.51
EGA1.171.01
SV%89.5%89.7%

The winner column displays the dominant team in that category. The more pictures of the team's logo the more dominant the team is in that category

All the non-percentage numbers are scoring rates. For example on the first row, the Pittsburgh Penguins have an even strength scoring rate of 2.52 goal for per hour. [GF = goals for, GA = goals against Exx = expected xx, SV% = shot quality neutral save percentage].

In the power play section in order to calculate the expected scoring rates I multiplied the goals for rate of one team and the goals against rate of the other and divide by the league average in order to get the expected rate for these two teams combined. So for example, the Pittsburgh Penguins have a power play goals for rate of 7.36 and the Philadelphia Flyers have a penalty killing goals against rate of 6.26. So 7.36*6.26/6.5=7.09 [league average is 6.5].

Outperforming expected goals for is a sign of a lucky team. Outperforming expected goals against is a sign of either a good goaltender or luck as well.

Each category listed has a different importance to winning, so be careful how you read these. Being able to score short-handed isn't going to win a lot of hockey games.

1 comment:

Engraved Pens said...

Its pretty much a disaster when they play, have you see the 4 FIGHTS from 12/11/07? Although i love watching them play. Thanks for posting this!

Cheers,
Ben