2003-2004 Frequency Standings.

As promised a month ago I have collected the frequency standings from 03-04. I suggested and showed that the 2005-2006 Stanley Cup Playoff teams did better if they had a higher come back score. The 2003-2004 playoffs didn't quite work out as well, with Tampa (57%) and Calgary (55%) going the finals. The Montreal - Boston upset (predicted at 80%) was another strange series. As a result the CB factor was negatively correlated to winning in 2003-2004. When you combine the data (2005-2006 and 2003-2004) you get the positive correlation back, however it is no longer significant (p-value = 30%). However doing a regression on the results showed that predicting wrong generally resulted in a longer series (6 games instead of 5). Either way I still don't have conclusive evidence that the CB stat helps teams win in the playoffs. That being said the other statistics (LW, OL, TL) were less significant than the CB variable so there aren't better alternatives.

N name W L T ePTS SW TL OL LW CB 1 DET 53 18 11 117 2.5 54% 39% 59% 62% 2 N.J 49 21 12 110 2.6 54% 38% 51% 54% 3 TOR 50 22 10 110 2.4 50% 43% 61% 58% 4 S.J 49 22 12 109 2.7 50% 43% 54% 60% 5 BOS 47 20 15 109 2.9 47% 44% 51% 66% 6 T.B 50 23 9 109 2.9 57% 38% 49% 57% 7 DAL 48 22 13 108 2.3 49% 42% 57% 54% 8 PHI 46 21 15 108 2.8 50% 41% 49% 60% 9 VAN 48 25 10 105 2.9 48% 46% 53% 62% 10 OTT 48 24 10 105 2.8 51% 43% 52% 58% 11 COL 46 23 13 104 2.8 51% 41% 48% 57% 12 MIN 39 22 21 99 2.6 43% 44% 43% 56% 13 STL 43 27 12 99 2.9 49% 43% 46% 56% 14 MTL 45 29 8 99 2.5 53% 42% 52% 47% 15 CGY 45 30 7 98 2.7 49% 46% 54% 55% 16 NSH 43 28 11 98 2.7 52% 41% 46% 48% 17 NYI 44 27 11 98 2.6 49% 43% 51% 50% 18 EDM 41 29 12 94 3.1 46% 47% 44% 59% 19 BUF 40 33 9 89 2.5 48% 46% 49% 44% 20 L.A 35 31 16 86 3.0 44% 46% 38% 51% 21 FLA 34 32 15 84 3.0 43% 49% 39% 52% 22 ATL 37 36 9 83 3.0 44% 50% 45% 52% 23 CAR 34 33 15 83 2.6 37% 53% 47% 51% 24 PHX 29 35 18 77 3.2 36% 54% 35% 56% 25 ANA 33 38 10 77 3.0 46% 48% 38% 46% 26 NYR 30 45 7 68 2.7 39% 57% 45% 45% 27 CBJ 28 43 10 67 2.9 42% 52% 36% 42% 28 WSH 27 45 10 65 2.9 36% 57% 40% 47% 29 PIT 27 47 8 61 3.0 37% 58% 38% 46% 30 CHI 24 46 11 60 2.9 39% 54% 33% 41%

W - wins, L - losses, T - ties (for 82 game season) - estimated using simulation.
PTS - expected points using this method.
SW - average score switching - high numbers likely indicate difficulty maintaining a lead (bad defense/goaltending)
TL - Percentage the team takes lead.
OL - Percentage the opposition takes lead.
LW - Percentage the lead results in win. (otherwise it is tied again).
CB - Percentage of come backs - # of times team re-ties game. (otherwise opposition wins).