May 22, 2007

Anaheim @ Detroit


DET
ANA
#GEGS%
GEGSV%
Game 1:22.594.111.792.0
Game 2:32.184.642.685.7
Game 3:52.510001.580.0
Game 4:32.582.652.388.0
Game 5:14.788.921.897.9
Game 6:32.192.345.285.7
Series [2-4]1716.490.11615.189.6


Just like the east, the two best western teams have made it to the conference finals. Hasek looked good last round and despite a few hiccups Anaheim did very well destroying Vancouver in 5. A lot of Detroit's amazing numbers come from beating easy teams in the regular season. You can see their "tough team" goal differential below, (0.1) and it isn't that impressive. Detroit's injuries should give Anaheim the advantage. These teams are quite different, but as you can see from the GF,GA in the season series, goal scoring seems to be controlled (low), which should favor Anaheim.


This image displays the two team's records and goals for (GFA) and goals against (GAA) rates against only teams who made the playoffs. In addition I added my 'trademarked' estimated team value rating (I sum up all my estimated worth[$'s] of the current lineup) to give an idea about how good the lineup is in relation to the performance over the year. You can see the season series below that, and a small number in the bottom right is the number of penalties per game in the season series. The big percentage are the likelihood, based on a simplistic prediction model, of the team to win the series. The percentages are updated after every win or loss. F,D,G represent Forwards, Defense and Goaltending respectively, and are just my best guesses. If you think they're wrong tell my why and I'll likely change them.


DETANAWinner
Even Strength
GF2.82.6
EGF2.962.77
GA1.912.15
EGA2.012.13
SV%90.5%89.9%
Power Play
GF5.577.71
EGF7.196.86
GA0.550.61
EGA0.570.93
SV%87.9%91.1%
The winner column displays the dominant team in that category. The more pictures of the team's logo the more dominant the team is in that category

All the non-percentage numbers are scoring rates. For example on the first row, the Detroit Red Wings have an even strength scoring rate of 2.8 goal for per hour. [GF = goals for, GA = goals against Exx = expected xx, SV% = shot quality neutral save percentage].

In the power play section in order to calculate the expected scoring rates I multiplied the goals for rate of one team and the goals against rate of the other and divide by the league average in order to get the expected rate for these two teams combined. So for example, the Detroit Red Wings have a power play goals for rate of 6.44 and the Anaheim Ducks have a penalty killing goals against rate of 5.62. So 6.44*5.62/6.5=5.57 [league average is 6.5].

Outperforming expected goals for is a sign of a lucky team. Outperforming expected goals against is a sign of either a good goaltender or luck as well.

Each category listed has a different importance to winning, so be careful how you read these. Being able to score short-handed isn't going to win a lot of hockey games.

1 comment:

djw said...

great blog thanks for all the info