The Joy Luck Club

I often have people say that my statistical measures of shot quality don’t factor in whose stick they are coming from. That is to say it makes a huge difference if Tanguay takes a shot over say Josh Green given the same variables: distance, rebound, power play etc. However, I am going to make a short little explanation that this is probably not the case and that good players score because they’re in the right place at the right time and get their shots on net. Then I am going to list players who have significantly outperformed expectation over the year and those who have done a lot worse.

Sniper

How can I show that outperforming expected goals is the result of luck and not skill? Year over year correlations are the best way. That is to say, do a regression on how well compared to expected results a given player did in 2005-2006 and compare that to identical player in 2006-2007. If skill is a significant component of the data then we should see that good players in 2005-2006 are good in 2006-2007. If this is not the case then there are other reasons (most of which can be attributed to luck).

The graph below is a scatter plot of the Z scores for each year. Z scores simply allow me to normalize out the quantity of shots and create a unitless measure of skill. The amount of variability in the data is about 5-10% greater than I would expect, assuming binomially distributed data, which is likely the result of problems with the shot quality model.

There are small signs that there are players who can outperform expectations. There are a few regressions that are significant at the 5% level, but these regressions explain 1% of all the variability, so I will consider that other influences, such as luck, have a larger effect on the results. I’m not saying that players can’t outperform expected goals; I’m just saying that outperforming expected goals is more likely a sign of luck than a sign of skill.

Here’s the list

The team listed is one of the team’s the given player has played on. It just helps me figure out who the player is. P = F:forward, D:defense, G = goals (not empty nets), D = difference between actual goals and expected goals, Z = z-score of the difference using binomial standard deviation. [sqrt(npq)].

The Z-score represents a unitless value about how much better (or worse) a player did than expected. It just creates a nice value to sort the list by. The D value is the absolute number of "unexpected" goals.

N Lastname I Team P G Shots D Z 1 SEMIN A WSH F 39 244 19 4.39 2 SOURAY S MTL D 25 223 13 4.08 3 VISNOVSKY L L.A D 18 159 10 3.41 4 KUBA F T.B D 15 106 8 3.34 5 HUSELIUS K CGY F 31 170 12 3.03 6 STAAL J PIT F 28 130 11 3.03 7 HORTON N FLA F 30 216 12 3.00 8 LECAVALIER V T.B F 49 336 16 2.95 9 ROCHE T PHX D 6 32 4 2.90 10 DRURY C BUF F 36 198 13 2.88 11 GUERIN B STL F 36 225 13 2.79 12 BOUCHER P DAL D 19 222 9 2.78 13 COLAIACOVO C TOR D 8 61 5 2.72 14 TANGUAY A CGY F 20 105 9 2.68 15 SPEZZA J OTT F 33 161 12 2.67 16 GAGNE S PHI F 40 290 13 2.65 17 WEBER S NSH D 17 152 8 2.61 18 CARNEY K MIN D 4 31 3 2.46 19 HAMILTON J CHI F 18 138 8 2.46 20 SALO S VAN D 14 143 7 2.44 21 RADULOV A NSH F 18 96 7 2.42 22 KOZLOV V NYI F 24 164 9 2.39 23 AFINOGENOV M BUF F 23 151 8 2.34 24 MCAMMOND D OTT F 14 86 6 2.25 25 FROLOV A L.A F 34 194 10 2.24 26 GIORDANO M CGY D 7 49 4 2.24 27 POMINVILLE J BUF F 33 211 10 2.19 28 ROLSTON B MIN F 31 305 10 2.17 29 SELANNE T ANA F 47 256 12 2.09 30 SYKORA P EDM F 22 207 8 2.09 31 CLARK C WSH F 29 163 9 2.06 32 RUUTU T CHI F 17 115 6 2.02 33 ZUBOV S DAL D 13 157 5 1.97 34 STAFFORD D BUF F 13 67 5 1.94 35 BERGERON M EDM D 15 167 6 1.93 36 DEMITRA P MIN F 24 174 7 1.84 37 WARRENER R CGY D 4 31 2 1.84 38 BOYLE D T.B D 20 203 6 1.83 39 SMYTH R EDM F 36 210 8 1.73 40 TALLINDER H BUF D 4 34 2 1.72 41 MODANO M DAL F 22 141 6 1.67 42 GILL H TOR D 5 78 2 1.60 43 COLE E CAR F 28 165 7 1.58 44 PETTINGER M WSH F 15 110 5 1.57 45 JOVANOVSKI E PHX D 11 135 4 1.54 46 PERREAULT Y PHX F 21 125 6 1.54 47 DEVEREAUX B TOR F 8 57 3 1.53 48 GABORIK M MIN F 29 195 7 1.51 49 MARLEAU P S.J F 32 180 7 1.51 50 PLEKANEC T MTL F 20 150 5 1.48 51 ROY D BUF F 21 130 5 1.45 52 KOZLOV V ATL F 28 190 6 1.43 53 SULLIVAN S NSH F 20 120 5 1.41 54 LEGWAND D NSH F 25 151 6 1.38 55 IGINLA J CGY F 37 262 7 1.37 56 STEMPNIAK L STL F 26 165 6 1.37 57 SILLINGER M NYI F 25 151 6 1.35 58 STUMPEL J FLA F 21 129 5 1.35 59 WHITNEY R PIT D 14 129 4 1.34 60 HAINSEY R CBJ D 9 136 3 1.34 61 TUCKER D TOR F 24 143 5 1.33 62 SUTER R NSH D 8 87 3 1.30 63 POHL J TOR F 15 108 4 1.30 64 TALBOT M PIT F 13 88 4 1.30 65 KUKKONEN L CHI D 5 54 2 1.28 66 KWIATKOWSKI J FLA D 5 46 2 1.27 67 ANTROPOV N TOR F 17 124 4 1.25 68 RIBEIRO M DAL F 18 111 4 1.25 69 SMID L EDM D 3 53 2 1.24 70 MCCABE B TOR D 15 208 4 1.24 71 MCLAREN K S.J D 5 43 2 1.23 72 BRIERE D BUF F 32 234 6 1.21 73 LILES J COL D 14 128 4 1.20 74 BATTAGLIA B TOR F 12 94 3 1.20 75 RYDER M MTL F 30 221 5 1.16 76 STRAKA M NYR F 27 163 5 1.16 77 CROSBY S PIT F 35 249 6 1.15 78 LUKOWICH B N.J D 4 50 2 1.15 79 TJARNQVIST D EDM D 3 33 1 1.13 80 ROZSIVAL M NYR D 10 104 3 1.12 81 VANEK T BUF F 40 234 6 1.11 82 UMBERGER R PHI F 16 133 4 1.11 83 POTULNY R PHI F 6 55 2 1.11 84 GETZLAF R ANA F 24 202 5 1.10 85 HAMEL D ATL F 5 42 2 1.10 86 THOMAS B PHX F 8 60 2 1.06 87 OVECHKIN A WSH F 44 390 6 1.04 88 ARNOTT J NSH F 27 190 5 1.03 89 JOKINEN O FLA F 39 351 6 1.03 90 BACKMAN C STL D 7 80 2 1.03 91 TARNASKY N T.B F 5 41 2 1.03 92 ASHAM A NYI F 11 84 3 1.02 93 BRIND'AMOUR R CAR F 24 179 4 1.02 94 BOUWMEESTER J FLA D 12 174 3 1.01 95 HEJDUK M COL F 34 256 5 1.00 96 KUBINA P TOR D 7 97 2 0.99 97 ZETTERBERG H DET F 32 223 5 0.97 98 PHILLIPS C OTT D 7 93 2 0.97 99 KOVALCHUK I ATL F 39 333 5 0.95 100 CHRISTENSEN E PIT F 18 133 3 0.92 101 HEWARD J WSH D 6 75 2 0.91 102 MORROW B DAL F 16 101 3 0.90 103 YELLE S CGY F 9 54 2 0.89 104 PRONGER C ANA D 13 166 3 0.88 105 RITCHIE B CGY F 8 46 2 0.87 106 RIVET C MTL D 7 89 2 0.87 107 TIMONEN K NSH D 13 121 3 0.86 108 COBURN B ATL D 3 54 1 0.86 109 SYDOR D DAL D 5 75 2 0.85 110 KLESLA R CBJ D 9 159 2 0.84 111 VYBORNY D CBJ F 16 158 3 0.83 112 PISANI F EDM F 14 142 3 0.82 113 HAMHUIS D NSH D 6 84 2 0.81 114 TJARNQVIST M PHX F 6 44 2 0.81 115 COMRIE M OTT F 20 125 3 0.80 116 MURRAY G BOS F 28 201 4 0.80 117 FRIESEN J CGY F 6 55 2 0.80 118 WILLIAMS J DET F 14 148 3 0.79 119 STOLL J EDM F 12 114 2 0.78 120 BRYLIN S N.J F 15 96 3 0.77 121 FISCHER P PHX F 4 32 1 0.77 122 CLYMER B WSH F 7 78 2 0.76 123 HARTNELL S NSH F 21 149 3 0.75 124 HUTCHINSON A CAR D 3 45 1 0.75 125 HUDLER J DET F 15 107 2 0.74 126 HEMSKY A EDM F 13 122 2 0.74 127 CLARK B COL D 10 140 2 0.72 128 KOTALIK A BUF F 15 161 2 0.71 129 VAANANEN O COL D 2 32 1 0.71 130 ST. LOUIS M T.B F 43 273 4 0.70 131 WHITNEY R CAR F 30 213 3 0.70 132 SHARP P CHI F 18 158 3 0.70 133 SMITHSON J NSH F 5 47 1 0.70 134 BEECH K WSH F 8 77 2 0.70 135 CAMMALLERI M L.A F 34 299 4 0.68 136 MORRISON B VAN F 19 138 3 0.68 137 CARTER A CBJ F 11 70 2 0.67 138 DIPENTA J ANA D 2 33 1 0.67 139 ZIGOMANIS M PHX F 13 141 2 0.66 140 PELTONEN V FLA F 16 144 2 0.66 141 WEIGHT D STL F 15 122 2 0.66 142 EAGER B PHI F 6 47 1 0.66 143 KOIVU M MIN F 19 161 2 0.65 144 AFANASENKOV D PHI F 10 94 2 0.65 145 KNUBLE M PHI F 23 157 3 0.65 146 GONCHAR S PIT D 13 191 2 0.65 147 SPACEK J BUF D 5 78 1 0.65 148 PHANEUF D CGY D 16 229 2 0.64 149 DOAN S PHX F 26 208 3 0.64 150 STREIT M MTL D 10 102 2 0.64 151 WESTCOTT D CBJ D 3 33 1 0.63 152 KAPANEN S PHI F 11 129 2 0.62 153 SALVADOR B STL D 2 40 1 0.62 154 DATSYUK P DET F 28 208 3 0.61 155 JOHNSON R STL F 7 50 1 0.60 156 MORRIS D PHX D 6 129 1 0.59 157 LARSEN B ATL F 7 61 1 0.59 158 NOLAN O PHX F 16 154 2 0.58 159 HAVLAT M CHI F 22 173 2 0.58 160 AXELSSON P BOS F 10 80 2 0.58 161 CLOWE R S.J F 16 93 2 0.57 162 KALININ D BUF D 7 86 1 0.56 163 SJOSTROM F PHX F 10 126 2 0.55 164 BOUILLON F MTL D 3 56 1 0.55 165 ALEXEEV N T.B F 12 117 2 0.54 166 O'NEILL J TOR F 20 166 2 0.53 167 ZUBRUS D WSH F 22 156 2 0.53 168 FILPPULA V DET F 10 76 1 0.51 169 PREISSING T OTT D 7 94 1 0.51 170 BONDRA P CHI F 5 46 1 0.51 171 GAUSTAD P BUF F 9 75 1 0.51 172 DOWD J N.J F 4 44 1 0.50 173 ROBERTS G FLA F 19 124 2 0.48 174 HNIDY S ATL D 5 86 1 0.48 175 WILLIAMS J CAR F 32 257 2 0.47 176 TAFFE J PHX F 4 34 1 0.47 177 LINDEN T VAN F 11 91 1 0.46 178 JURCINA M WSH D 4 71 1 0.46 179 DALEY T DAL D 4 68 1 0.45 180 KABERLE F CAR D 2 33 1 0.44 181 BIEKSA K VAN D 12 203 1 0.43 182 CHEECHOO J S.J F 37 250 2 0.43 183 CHISTOV S BOS F 5 49 1 0.43 184 FEDOROV S CBJ F 17 162 2 0.42 185 KOLNIK J FLA F 11 113 1 0.41 186 LUNDMARK J L.A F 7 81 1 0.41 187 ROENICK J PHX F 10 88 1 0.39 188 ZAJAC T N.J F 17 134 1 0.39 189 BONK R MTL F 12 110 1 0.39 190 KABERLE T TOR D 9 126 1 0.39 191 BROWN C S.J F 8 84 1 0.39 192 BRASHEAR D WSH F 4 47 1 0.39 193 ZANON G NSH D 3 43 1 0.39 194 SCHUBERT C OTT D 8 97 1 0.38 195 PRUCHA P NYR F 22 136 2 0.37 196 ERAT M NSH F 16 132 1 0.37 197 HUNTER T NYI F 19 165 1 0.36 198 NUMMELIN P MIN D 3 69 1 0.36 199 TOLLEFSEN O CBJ D 2 39 0 0.35 200 WALZ W MIN F 9 77 1 0.34 201 VEILLEUX S MIN F 7 84 1 0.33 202 LATENDRESSE G MTL F 16 121 1 0.33 203 KOPITAR A L.A F 20 193 1 0.32 204 SALMELAINEN T CHI F 6 54 1 0.32 205 KILGER C TOR F 14 141 1 0.31 206 STASTNY P COL F 28 185 1 0.30 207 MALKIN E PIT F 32 241 2 0.30 208 PYATT T VAN F 23 150 1 0.29 209 RUCINSKY M STL F 11 95 1 0.28 210 CLEARY D DET F 18 133 1 0.26 211 OHLUND M VAN D 11 170 1 0.26 212 MOSS D CGY F 11 71 1 0.26 213 MORRISONN S WSH D 3 46 0 0.26 214 JONES R PHI D 4 67 0 0.26 215 JOHNSON A CBJ D 3 52 0 0.26 216 DUMONT J NSH F 21 143 1 0.25 217 PARISE Z N.J F 31 247 1 0.25 218 TORRES R EDM F 15 154 1 0.25 219 LEHTINEN J DAL F 22 190 1 0.25 220 RANGER P T.B D 4 90 0 0.24 221 BELANGER E ATL F 17 149 1 0.24 222 MEYER IV F NYI D 2 41 0 0.24 223 YORK M PHI F 10 85 1 0.23 224 JOKINEN J DAL F 14 121 1 0.23 225 OUELLET M PIT F 19 148 1 0.22 226 WALKER S CAR F 21 183 1 0.21 227 CHIMERA J CBJ F 15 151 1 0.21 228 SAKIC J COL F 34 256 1 0.19 229 HINOTE D STL F 5 37 0 0.19 230 TENKRAT P BOS F 9 82 0 0.18 231 FRITSCHE D CBJ F 11 80 1 0.18 232 MCLEAN B COL F 15 134 1 0.17 233 SIM J ATL F 17 141 1 0.17 234 WOLSKI W COL F 21 164 1 0.16 235 LARAQUE G PHX F 5 44 0 0.16 236 SAVARD M BOS F 20 219 1 0.16 237 WARD A NYR D 4 62 0 0.16 238 LANGKOW D CGY F 33 247 1 0.15 239 MCCARTHY S ATL D 4 51 0 0.15 240 GRIER M S.J F 14 123 0 0.14 241 WILLSIE B L.A F 11 131 0 0.13 242 PECA M TOR F 4 42 0 0.12 243 SIMON C NYI F 10 82 0 0.11 244 REINPRECHT S PHX F 9 71 0 0.10 245 GIONTA B N.J F 25 194 0 0.10 246 BARNES S DAL F 13 118 0 0.08 247 VISHNEVSKI V NSH D 2 46 0 0.07 248 SMOLINSKI B CHI F 17 162 0 0.07 249 LAPOINTE M CHI F 11 100 0 0.07 250 CALDER K PHI F 14 129 0 0.07 251 FLEISCHMANN T WSH F 4 52 0 0.07 252 MADDEN J N.J F 12 153 0 0.06 253 VERMETTE A OTT F 18 150 0 0.06 254 POCK T NYR D 4 76 0 0.06 255 JACKMAN R ANA D 2 36 0 0.06 256 KLEPIS J WSH F 3 38 0 0.06 257 SATAN M NYI F 24 211 0 0.05 258 NIEDERMAYER S ANA D 15 172 0 0.05 259 SUNDIN M TOR F 27 323 0 0.04 260 SCUDERI R PIT D 1 31 0 0.04 261 BURNS B MIN D 7 108 0 0.03 262 RUUTU J PIT F 6 62 0 0.03 263 NASH R CBJ F 27 228 0 0.03 264 STUART B CGY D 7 109 0 0.02 265 HAGMAN N DAL F 17 152 0 0.02 266 HEATLEY D OTT F 46 306 0 0.01 267 BOCHENSKI B BOS F 13 92 0 0.01 268 MARKOV D DET D 3 65 0 0.01 269 BULIS J VAN F 11 121 0 -0.01 270 ARMSTRONG D L.A F 11 109 0 -0.02 271 SCHNEIDER M DET D 11 184 0 -0.02 272 JANIK D T.B D 2 49 0 -0.02 273 COMMODORE M CAR D 7 136 0 -0.02 274 MARTINEK R NYI D 2 44 0 -0.02 275 WELLWOOD K TOR F 12 99 0 -0.02 276 CALLAHAN R NYR F 4 40 0 -0.02 277 WIDEMAN D STL D 6 122 0 -0.03 278 BLAKE R L.A D 14 208 0 -0.04 279 HOSSA M ATL F 40 337 0 -0.04 280 VASICEK J CAR F 6 77 0 -0.04 281 SANDERSON G PHI F 11 143 0 -0.04 282 KARIYA P NSH F 24 224 0 -0.04 283 THORBURN C PIT F 3 40 0 -0.05 284 RICHARDS B T.B F 24 271 0 -0.06 285 LADD A CAR F 12 110 0 -0.06 286 RECCHI M PIT F 24 190 0 -0.06 287 MODIN F CBJ F 22 220 0 -0.07 288 SAPRYKIN O PHX F 15 150 0 -0.07 289 RYCROFT M COL F 6 74 0 -0.07 290 PLATT G CBJ F 4 40 0 -0.08 291 LIDSTROM N DET D 13 224 0 -0.09 292 WEISS S FLA F 20 176 0 -0.09 293 BLAKE J NYI F 38 301 -1 -0.09 294 LUNDQVIST J DAL F 3 36 0 -0.09 295 HORCOFF S EDM F 16 170 0 -0.10 296 EAVES P OTT F 14 130 0 -0.11 297 BATES S NYI F 4 50 0 -0.11 298 FORSBERG P NSH F 13 99 0 -0.12 299 PANDOLFO J N.J F 11 107 0 -0.12 300 TURGEON P COL F 4 31 0 -0.12 301 RYAN M BUF F 3 34 0 -0.12 302 Aucoin A CHI D 4 96 0 -0.14 303 TKACHUK K STL F 26 195 -1 -0.14 304 STAAL E CAR F 28 286 -1 -0.15 305 CAMPBELL B BUF D 6 92 0 -0.15 306 NAGY L DAL F 12 146 0 -0.15 307 HIGGINS C MTL F 20 155 -1 -0.15 308 CONROY C CGY F 13 112 -1 -0.16 309 COWAN J VAN F 7 74 0 -0.16 310 KOSTOPOULOS T L.A F 7 90 0 -0.18 311 MOEN T ANA F 11 124 -1 -0.18 312 PARK R NYI F 10 92 -1 -0.18 313 ADAMS C CAR F 7 71 -1 -0.20 314 ZHITNIK A PHI D 6 131 0 -0.20 315 LANG R DET F 18 165 -1 -0.21 316 DUPUIS P NYR F 14 156 -1 -0.22 317 CARCILLO D PHX F 4 32 0 -0.22 318 SMITH J EDM D 2 61 0 -0.23 319 STEFAN P DAL F 4 40 0 -0.23 320 PONIKAROVSKY A TOR F 19 196 -1 -0.24 321 LUPUL J EDM F 16 173 -1 -0.24 322 KOMISAREK M MTL D 3 77 0 -0.24 323 NORSTROM M L.A D 2 60 0 -0.24 324 GRATTON C FLA F 12 130 -1 -0.25 325 PAVELSKI J S.J F 14 111 -1 -0.25 326 PAHLSSON S ANA F 8 111 -1 -0.26 327 RAFALSKI B N.J D 8 148 -1 -0.27 328 UPSHALL S PHI F 8 87 -1 -0.27 329 BEGIN S MTL F 5 64 -1 -0.27 330 HAMRLIK R CGY D 7 125 -1 -0.28 331 KELLY C OTT F 14 130 -1 -0.29 332 NICHOL S NSH F 6 57 -1 -0.29 333 SEJNA P STL F 3 34 -1 -0.29 334 MCDONALD A ANA F 27 252 -2 -0.30 335 BRULE G CBJ F 9 98 -1 -0.30 336 BALLARD K PHX D 4 78 -1 -0.30 337 SCHULTZ N MIN D 2 69 0 -0.31 338 EXELBY G ATL D 2 57 0 -0.31 339 SUTTON A ATL D 2 51 0 -0.31 340 REDDEN W OTT D 7 122 -1 -0.31 341 CORVO J OTT D 8 160 -1 -0.32 342 SVITOV A CBJ F 7 83 -1 -0.32 343 IVANANS R L.A F 4 37 -1 -0.32 344 JOHNSON M MTL F 11 131 -1 -0.33 345 HOSSA M NYR F 10 83 -1 -0.33 346 KUNITZ C ANA F 25 180 -2 -0.34 347 BOYNTON N PHX D 2 53 -1 -0.36 348 CHARA Z BOS D 11 204 -1 -0.37 349 FIDDLER V NSH F 10 89 -1 -0.37 350 SOPEL B L.A D 5 131 -1 -0.38 351 STAIOS S EDM D 3 72 -1 -0.38 352 WISNIEWSKI J CHI D 2 55 -1 -0.38 353 EHRHOFF C S.J D 10 164 -1 -0.38 354 RUPP M N.J F 6 60 -1 -0.40 355 LEBDA B DET D 5 107 -1 -0.40 356 POULIOT M EDM F 4 73 -1 -0.41 357 BERNIER S S.J F 15 104 -2 -0.41 358 RACHUNEK K NYR D 6 99 -1 -0.42 359 BACKES D STL F 10 89 -1 -0.42 360 ALFREDSSON D OTT F 27 238 -2 -0.42 361 BOURQUE R CHI F 7 82 -1 -0.42 362 LYDMAN T BUF D 2 44 -1 -0.43 363 NOVOTNY J BUF F 6 79 -1 -0.43 364 EKMAN N PIT F 6 69 -1 -0.43 365 ODUYA J N.J D 2 55 -1 -0.44 366 MICHALEK M S.J F 26 191 -2 -0.44 367 PARRISH M MIN F 19 141 -2 -0.44 368 MESZAROS A OTT D 7 147 -1 -0.45 369 SUTHERBY B WSH F 7 87 -1 -0.46 370 RUCCHIN S ATL F 5 56 -1 -0.46 371 RICHARDSON B COL F 14 129 -2 -0.47 372 SMITH W MIN F 3 44 -1 -0.48 373 MARTIN P N.J D 3 84 -1 -0.48 374 ARKHIPOV D CHI F 9 111 -1 -0.48 375 MALHOTRA M CBJ F 9 109 -2 -0.49 376 FOOTE A CBJ D 3 78 -1 -0.49 377 RADIVOJEVIC B MIN F 9 114 -2 -0.49 378 MOWERS M BOS F 5 60 -1 -0.50 379 KESLER R VAN F 6 88 -1 -0.50 380 STURM M BOS F 26 223 -3 -0.52 381 NASLUND M VAN F 23 221 -2 -0.52 382 BOUCHARD P MIN F 19 172 -2 -0.54 383 LANGENBRUNNER J N.J F 23 242 -3 -0.54 384 STAJAN M TOR F 11 133 -2 -0.54 385 WINCHESTER B EDM F 4 66 -1 -0.54 386 THORNTON S L.A F 6 64 -1 -0.54 387 BRUNETTE A COL F 27 173 -3 -0.55 388 BARKER C CHI D 1 38 -1 -0.56 389 BEAUCHEMIN F ANA D 7 128 -2 -0.57 390 NYLANDER M NYR F 26 193 -3 -0.57 391 BELL M S.J F 11 116 -2 -0.57 392 MALIK M NYR D 2 57 -1 -0.57 393 FISHER M OTT F 21 192 -3 -0.58 394 CARLE M S.J D 10 110 -2 -0.58 395 NILSON M CGY F 4 68 -1 -0.58 396 BROWN D L.A F 17 195 -2 -0.59 397 HEJDA J EDM D 1 33 -1 -0.59 398 HAVELID N ATL D 3 82 -1 -0.59 399 WHITE T MIN F 13 162 -2 -0.60 400 PAETSCH N BUF D 2 62 -1 -0.60 401 DVORAK R STL F 10 139 -2 -0.60 402 MALONE R PIT F 16 125 -2 -0.60 403 YASHIN A NYI F 18 200 -3 -0.60 404 GREENE M EDM D 1 52 -1 -0.61 405 BABCHUK A CAR D 2 63 -1 -0.61 406 ALLEN B FLA D 3 98 -1 -0.63 407 SEIDENBERG D CAR D 2 83 -1 -0.63 408 ZYUZIN A CGY D 1 36 -1 -0.66 409 BRISEBOIS P COL D 1 36 -1 -0.66 410 SALEI R FLA D 6 148 -2 -0.67 411 BERGERON P BOS F 21 223 -3 -0.67 412 PRIMEAU W CGY F 10 107 -2 -0.68 413 ROBITAILLE R NYI F 10 119 -2 -0.68 414 STEEN A TOR F 15 192 -3 -0.68 415 MARA P BOS D 5 100 -2 -0.68 416 METROPOLIT G ATL F 14 123 -3 -0.69 417 LAROSE C CAR F 6 94 -2 -0.69 418 TANABE D CAR D 5 83 -2 -0.69 419 PETERSEN T EDM F 6 92 -2 -0.69 420 SCHAEFER P OTT F 11 131 -2 -0.70 421 PEREZHOGIN A MTL F 6 103 -2 -0.70 422 HECHT J BUF F 17 195 -3 -0.70 423 MELICHAR J PIT D 1 57 -1 -0.70 424 O'DONNELL S ANA D 2 47 -1 -0.70 425 ERIKSSON L DAL F 6 78 -2 -0.70 426 MARKOV A MTL D 5 127 -2 -0.71 427 RISSMILLER P S.J F 6 99 -2 -0.72 428 PICARD A PHI D 3 76 -1 -0.73 429 PERRAULT J PHX F 1 31 -1 -0.73 430 LAPIERRE M MTL F 5 81 -2 -0.74 431 BOYES B BOS F 16 181 -3 -0.74 432 SEDIN D VAN F 33 233 -4 -0.74 433 LOMBARDI M CGY F 19 175 -3 -0.75 434 HOLMQVIST M CHI F 5 79 -2 -0.76 435 SMITH M S.J F 3 38 -2 -0.77 436 VANDERMEER J CHI D 1 50 -1 -0.77 437 KOVALEV A MTL F 17 196 -3 -0.78 438 O'SULLIVAN P L.A F 5 92 -2 -0.79 439 RICHARDS M PHI F 10 130 -3 -0.82 440 PENNER D ANA F 29 204 -4 -0.83 441 LAAKSONEN A COL F 3 43 -2 -0.83 442 MIETTINEN A DAL F 10 140 -3 -0.85 443 SAMUELSSON M DET F 13 188 -3 -0.85 444 KAPANEN N ATL F 6 79 -2 -0.87 445 REGEHR R CGY D 2 66 -2 -0.87 446 MITCHELL W VAN D 1 54 -1 -0.88 447 FITZPATRICK R VAN D 1 41 -1 -0.89 448 LAICH B WSH F 8 119 -3 -0.89 449 VLASIC M S.J D 3 66 -2 -0.89 450 SHANAHAN B NYR F 27 293 -5 -0.90 451 ARMSTRONG C PIT F 12 145 -3 -0.90 452 CAMPOLI C NYI D 1 41 -1 -0.90 453 MCCLEMENT J STL F 8 104 -3 -0.91 454 FERENCE A BOS D 3 80 -2 -0.91 455 PERRIN E T.B F 12 150 -3 -0.92 456 SAMSONOV S MTL F 9 114 -3 -0.92 457 KOIVU S MTL F 21 153 -4 -0.93 458 GREEN M WSH D 2 68 -2 -0.93 459 BREWER E STL D 6 111 -3 -0.94 460 HOLMSTROM T DET F 29 175 -5 -0.96 461 HANNAN S S.J D 2 77 -2 -0.96 462 GUITE B COL F 3 63 -2 -0.98 463 THORNTON J S.J F 21 212 -5 -0.98 464 JOHNSSON K MIN D 3 98 -2 -0.98 465 MICHALEK Z PHX D 4 144 -2 -1.00 466 MELLANBY S ATL F 12 103 -4 -1.00 467 BELL B TOR D 1 47 -2 -1.00 468 PAILLE D BUF F 2 44 -2 -1.00 469 LISIN E PHX F 1 35 -2 -1.00 470 REASONER M EDM F 5 83 -3 -1.02 471 BOULTON E ATL F 3 42 -2 -1.02 472 KRAJICEK L VAN D 3 105 -2 -1.03 473 DRAPER K DET F 12 155 -4 -1.05 474 O'BRIEN S ANA D 2 72 -2 -1.10 475 POTHIER B WSH D 3 118 -3 -1.10 476 VAN RYN M FLA D 4 121 -3 -1.11 477 ZEDNIK R WSH F 7 83 -3 -1.11 478 HATCHER D PHI D 3 81 -3 -1.12 479 GORDON B WSH F 7 104 -3 -1.12 480 HALE D N.J D 0 33 -1 -1.12 481 WESLEY G CAR D 1 51 -2 -1.14 482 DANDENAULT M MTL D 2 54 -2 -1.15 483 GOC M S.J F 5 96 -3 -1.15 484 WALKER M STL D 0 34 -1 -1.16 485 JACKMAN B STL D 2 85 -2 -1.17 486 DRAKE D STL F 4 72 -3 -1.17 487 CRAIG R T.B F 14 130 -5 -1.18 488 CAMPBELL G FLA F 6 103 -3 -1.18 489 ARNASON T COL F 16 211 -5 -1.19 490 WITT B NYI D 1 74 -2 -1.19 491 ERIKSSON A CBJ D 1 79 -2 -1.20 492 NUMMINEN T BUF D 2 69 -2 -1.20 493 LILJA A DET D 0 37 -1 -1.20 494 NEDVED P EDM F 2 39 -2 -1.23 495 THORESEN P EDM F 4 73 -3 -1.23 496 PITKANEN J PHI D 4 137 -3 -1.24 497 FEDOTENKO R T.B F 12 154 -5 -1.25 498 SHELLEY J CBJ F 1 32 -2 -1.25 499 GIRARDI D NYR D 0 33 -2 -1.26 500 GLEASON T CAR D 1 71 -2 -1.28 501 ZHERDEV N CBJ F 10 164 -5 -1.29 502 MAYERS J STL F 8 129 -4 -1.29 503 THORNTON S ANA F 2 60 -3 -1.30 504 WHITE I TOR D 3 138 -3 -1.30 505 WARD J L.A F 7 107 -4 -1.30 506 WHITE C N.J D 0 46 -2 -1.30 507 KASTSITSYN A MTL F 1 38 -2 -1.30 508 GELINAS M FLA F 13 170 -5 -1.31 509 TOOTOO J NSH F 3 77 -3 -1.31 510 CARTER J PHI F 13 213 -5 -1.33 511 KLEE K COL D 2 89 -3 -1.34 512 FRANZEN J DET F 10 151 -5 -1.34 513 FOSTER K MIN D 3 135 -3 -1.34 514 ALBERTS A BOS D 0 41 -2 -1.35 515 POTI T NYI D 5 131 -4 -1.37 516 SEABROOK B CHI D 4 144 -4 -1.38 517 BURROWS A VAN F 3 70 -3 -1.38 518 KESSEL P BOS F 11 170 -5 -1.39 519 BETTS B NYR F 9 120 -5 -1.39 520 MILLER A L.A D 0 56 -2 -1.39 521 WALLIN N CAR D 1 75 -3 -1.40 522 GERVAIS B NYI D 0 47 -2 -1.41 523 COOKE M VAN F 9 132 -5 -1.42 524 KEITH D CHI D 2 122 -3 -1.42 525 GORGES J S.J D 1 40 -3 -1.43 526 MODRY J DAL D 1 89 -3 -1.43 527 DE VRIES G ATL D 3 102 -4 -1.45 528 VIGIER J ATL F 5 83 -4 -1.46 529 AMONTE T CGY F 9 138 -5 -1.47 530 BRADLEY M WSH F 3 76 -4 -1.47 531 DONOVAN S BOS F 6 108 -5 -1.48 532 PERRY C ANA F 16 193 -7 -1.48 533 OLESZ R FLA F 11 164 -6 -1.53 534 MONTADOR S FLA D 1 88 -3 -1.53 535 BOOTH D FLA F 3 86 -4 -1.53 536 ELIAS P N.J F 20 266 -8 -1.54 537 CAJANEK P STL F 14 166 -7 -1.54 538 SCATCHARD D PHX F 3 77 -4 -1.55 539 HEDICAN B CAR D 0 44 -2 -1.56 540 VRBATA R CHI F 13 214 -7 -1.59 541 STILLMAN C CAR F 3 83 -4 -1.59 542 HILL S NYI D 1 88 -3 -1.61 543 JAGR J NYR F 30 324 -10 -1.61 544 SLATER J ATL F 5 90 -5 -1.61 545 DALLMAN K L.A D 1 76 -3 -1.62 546 RUZICKA S PHI F 3 75 -4 -1.62 547 HALL A MIN F 6 103 -5 -1.64 548 PROSPAL V T.B F 14 219 -7 -1.64 549 TYUTIN F NYR D 1 74 -3 -1.65 550 AVERY S NYR F 17 248 -8 -1.65 551 VOLCHENKOV A OTT D 1 85 -3 -1.65 552 LAPERRIERE I COL F 8 118 -6 -1.65 553 TAYLOR T T.B F 1 59 -3 -1.67 554 SARICH C T.B D 0 64 -3 -1.67 555 ORPIK B PIT D 0 59 -3 -1.69 556 RASMUSSEN E N.J F 3 80 -4 -1.70 557 HALPERN J DAL F 7 105 -6 -1.74 558 LANGFELD J DET F 0 37 -3 -1.75 559 NIEMINEN V S.J F 1 43 -4 -1.76 560 ISBISTER B NYR F 1 36 -4 -1.78 561 MOORE D PIT F 7 110 -6 -1.79 562 ZIDLICKY M NSH D 4 114 -5 -1.80 563 SKOULA M MIN D 0 91 -3 -1.82 564 MALTBY K DET F 5 112 -6 -1.84 565 SKRASTINS K COL D 0 65 -3 -1.87 566 ORTMEYER J NYR F 2 67 -5 -1.88 567 LINDROS E DAL F 5 95 -6 -1.90 568 ADAMS K PHX F 2 86 -5 -1.91 569 GREEN J VAN F 2 74 -5 -1.92 570 NEIL C OTT F 12 139 -8 -1.93 571 HOLIK B ATL F 11 190 -8 -1.94 572 LETOWSKI T CAR F 2 69 -5 -1.97 573 SHANNON R ANA F 2 77 -5 -1.98 574 CHELIOS C DET D 0 72 -4 -1.98 575 KRONVALL N DET D 1 104 -5 -2.11 576 MAIR A BUF F 2 73 -5 -2.11 577 HILBERT A NYI F 8 162 -8 -2.13 578 ROBIDAS S DAL D 0 106 -5 -2.17 579 MARCHANT T ANA F 6 113 -8 -2.20 580 SVATOS M COL F 15 179 -10 -2.23 581 SEDIN H VAN F 10 134 -9 -2.24 582 HOLLWEG R NYR F 1 63 -6 -2.30 583 GOMEZ S N.J F 13 248 -11 -2.38 584 NIEDERMAYER R ANA F 3 104 -7 -2.40 585 CULLEN M NYR F 15 216 -12 -2.41 586 HOGGAN J BOS F 0 53 -5 -2.44 587 KOBASEW C CGY F 5 93 -9 -2.54

Below I’m going through the best and the worst on the list to demonstrate that it makes sense with the extreme values and that skill doesn’t seem to be the reason players come to the top of the list or the bottom of the list.

Explanations of the top 10.

1. Semin: Scored 10 goals in the 52 games previous to this season and wasn’t a goal scorer in Europe. But managed almost 40 in 77 games. He’ll likely be a 20 goal scorer in the future. His goal:assist ratio is 1:0.9 (it should be 1:1.7), this is also a sign of luck. Semin is likely a 20 goal scorer, which is good, but not amazing.
2. Souray: This season he should’ve scored 13, but he scored 26 goals. Last season he scored 12 (in a few less games). I don’t need better evidence than that. He’s a “13 goals per season” goal scorer (excellent for a defenseman).
3. Visnovsky: 44 goals in the 348 games (0.13 g/g) prior to this season. 18 goals in 69 games (0.26 g/g) should’ve scored 8 goals (0.12 g/g).
4. Kuba: Never surpassed 10 goals his entire career, but was able to score 15 goals this season. I’d bet he’ll closer to 7 than 15 next season.
5. Huselius: Many people were most impressed with Huselius this season and for good reason he scored over double his previous season. But he exceeded expectations by about 12. Meaning he should’ve only had about 19 goals and he’s historically been a 20 goal scorer.
6. Staal (J): He’s going to be good, but 8 shorthanded goals and a goals:assist ratio > 2:1 is insanely uncommon. However since he’s young, he’ll be better next year so I wont say how well he should do, but I expect it be somewhere between 20 and 30. And I expect a lot more assists.
7. Horton: Two almost 30 goal season back to back, you’d think there’d be something going on. Horton is more likely a 20 goal scorer than a 30 goal scorer, but he’s still young so he’ll get better as well.
8. Lecavalier: You always need a little luck to win the big trophies and Lecavalier is no exception (still a great player). But scored 16 more goals than expected, which would bring him very close to his previous season’s scoring of 35 goals.
9. Roche: Who? 6 goals on 32 shots. I need not say more. I expect him to disappear next year.
10. Drury: Buffalo is covered with outperforming players and Drury is the leader of the pack. In 2005-2006 Drury scored 30 goals and 18 in 2003-2004 or 48 goals in 156 games for 0.31 goals per game. In 2006-2007 he scored 37 in 77 or 0.48 goals per game. He has maintained this scoring level in the playoffs (7/13), but I wouldn’t bet on it continuing forever.

Explanations of the bottom 10.

1. Kobasew: Calgary probably thought they were getting a deal trading away dead weight at the end of the season, but Kobasew should’ve had 9 extra goals, which would have basically tripled his nice total of 5. 14 goals in 50 games would’ve brough Kobasew quite close to his 0.26 goals per game record in 2005-2006.
2. Hoggan: Who? Was demoted after scoring 0 goals in 46 games.
3. Cullen: 25 goals in 78 games last season and 16 goals in 80 games this season. My numbers say he should’ve scored 28. Sounds reasonable to me.
4. Niedermayer (R): Lowest goals per game in his career and the closest he has come to this horrible scoring total was 1994-1995, when he got 4 goals in 48 games (21 year old). He should’ve had 10, which is close to his normal historical performance level.
5. Gomez: 33 goals to 13 goals, need I say more?
6. Hollweg: Who? Probably won’t ever be a goal scorer, but probably won’t see such a bad year as this twice.
7. Sedin (H): 18 goal season to 10 goal season. Won’t be a goal scorer, but he should’ve scored a lot more
8. Svatos: Amazing rookie season, but only scored 15 this year. He should’ve scored about 25, which is great number of goals in 66 games. Probably score 30 goals next season.
9. Marchant: Historically scored 0.18 goals per game and this season scored 0.11.
10. Robidas: 0 goals on 106 shots. He’s not a goal scorer, but that’s just doesn’t happen very often to forwards.

All this said, being lucky this year doesn’t lower your chances of being lucky next year, so any prediction could be wrong simply because they could be lucky two years in a row (or unlucky for that matter).

Future Uses

I am planning to go through the players and adjust assists based on how lucky the scorer was all season. So, an assist on a luck player will be worth less than an assist on an unlucky player. So Daniel Sedin’s assists on Henrik Sedin’s goals will be worth more than assists on Drury goals. I’ll then see if the results make sense.