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W - wins, L - losses, T - ties (for 82 game season) - estimated using simulation.
PTS - expected points using this method.
SW - average score switching - high numbers likely indicate difficulty maintaining a lead (bad defense/goaltending)
TL - Percentage the team takes lead.
OL - Percentage the opposition takes lead.
LW - Percentage the lead results in win. (otherwise it is tied again).
CB - Percentage of come backs - # of times team re-ties game. (otherwise opposition wins).
If you believe that comeback score (CB) is important to playoff success you have:
Ottawa (66%) vs. Pittsburgh (58%)
Rangers (50%) vs. Atlanta (56%)
Tampa (59%) vs. New Jersey (65%)
Islanders (53%) vs. Buffalo (69%)
San Jose (55%) vs. Nashville (59%)
Calgary (53%) vs. Detroit (64%)
Minnesota (61%) vs. Anaheim (63%)
Dallas (62%) vs. Vancouver (57%)
PTS - expected points using this method.
SW - average score switching - high numbers likely indicate difficulty maintaining a lead (bad defense/goaltending)
TL - Percentage the team takes lead.
OL - Percentage the opposition takes lead.
LW - Percentage the lead results in win. (otherwise it is tied again).
CB - Percentage of come backs - # of times team re-ties game. (otherwise opposition wins).
If you believe that comeback score (CB) is important to playoff success you have:
Ottawa (66%) vs. Pittsburgh (58%)
Rangers (50%) vs. Atlanta (56%)
Tampa (59%) vs. New Jersey (65%)
Islanders (53%) vs. Buffalo (69%)
San Jose (55%) vs. Nashville (59%)
Calgary (53%) vs. Detroit (64%)
Minnesota (61%) vs. Anaheim (63%)
Dallas (62%) vs. Vancouver (57%)
2 comments:
Would you be willing to provide N for the values especially Comebacks and Leads to wins. It would help weight the value (giving an hint of error). I think I can recover that information but I'd rather not make the assumptions.
160 or so ties
Anywhere from 60-90 leads, similarly anywhere from 60-90 situations where opposition leads.
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