April 9, 2007

Final 2007 Frequency Standings

You can see last month's here.

NnameWLTePTSSWTLOLLWCB
1DET5220101142.753%41%56%64%
2ANA5019141133.054%38%47%63%
3NSH5021111103.359%35%42%59%
4N.J4618171102.847%42%49%65%
5BUF4820141103.349%43%47%69%
6MIN4620171082.546%44%53%61%
7DAL4722131072.646%46%57%62%
8OTT502481072.652%43%57%58%
9S.J512741062.552%45%64%55%
10VAN482591052.954%41%49%57%
11PIT4323161013.649%43%39%66%
12CGY44308953.052%43%45%53%
13COL43309943.651%45%40%60%
14NYR392814932.949%43%41%50%
15MTL413011932.942%52%52%59%
16TOR413011933.048%45%44%55%
17ATL413011923.451%43%39%56%
18CAR42355902.947%50%53%54%
19T.B393112903.446%47%40%59%
20NYI383113883.046%46%41%53%
21FLA383510853.041%53%47%57%
22STL333712783.241%52%38%54%
23WSH333712782.641%51%43%45%
24CBJ333910752.743%51%42%44%
25CHI313813752.940%52%38%48%
26BOS313813753.346%47%32%49%
27EDM32446702.540%55%49%42%
28PHX29467662.837%59%45%47%
29L.A274510643.439%55%32%51%
30PHI23517543.540%56%29%47%
W - wins, L - losses, T - ties (for 82 game season) - estimated using simulation.
PTS - expected points using this method.
SW - average score switching - high numbers likely indicate difficulty maintaining a lead (bad defense/goaltending)
TL - Percentage the team takes lead.
OL - Percentage the opposition takes lead.
LW - Percentage the lead results in win. (otherwise it is tied again).
CB - Percentage of come backs - # of times team re-ties game. (otherwise opposition wins).


If you believe that comeback score (CB) is important to playoff success you have:
Ottawa (66%) vs. Pittsburgh (58%)
Rangers (50%) vs. Atlanta (56%)
Tampa (59%) vs. New Jersey (65%)
Islanders (53%) vs. Buffalo (69%)
San Jose (55%) vs. Nashville (59%)
Calgary (53%) vs. Detroit (64%)
Minnesota (61%) vs. Anaheim (63%)
Dallas (62%) vs. Vancouver (57%)

2 comments:

Mogen_david said...

Would you be willing to provide N for the values especially Comebacks and Leads to wins. It would help weight the value (giving an hint of error). I think I can recover that information but I'd rather not make the assumptions.

JavaGeek said...

160 or so ties
Anywhere from 60-90 leads, similarly anywhere from 60-90 situations where opposition leads.