November 19, 2006

Self Promotion

I know a lot of people don’t go to my statistics website, but in my humble opinion it has a lot of useful features. In the past week I’ve created tougher restrictions for my player lists (at least 10 games played): forwards, defense, goaltenders. I’ve added new features such as team summaries, which shows a shooting graph for and against and general statistics. I’ve also created better navigation from the player list to my team summaries and team rosters. A while back I downloaded all the hockeydb information so I could create neat player information pages with all player information. More importantly, I’ve really worked out some of my bugs in my predictions and now they should be much better and I also included a graph of how my predictions change over time. As a result of changing my code, my past incorrect prediction need to be deleted eventually. A new feature I'm working on is a power ranking system, and this can be seen in my entire NHL list. In any of the lists you can click on the team picture to get to the team pages or the players name to get their page. Many of the columns are sortable as well in each table (just click on the names at the top).

These pages are update every couple of days and should be reasonably accuate. Many of the information presented wont be found anywhere else: such as a goaltenders shot quality neutral save percentage, or a save percentage based quality and quantity. Or goaltenders ability to stop easy, medium and difficult shots. For the forwards and defense I have: expected goals for and against for each player (a better measure than plus minus) all measured in terms of rates rather than absolutes. Along with the standard plus minus measures and points. In the player information page I display their score in each game, this can give you an idea how volatile the scores are, but also how they are performing over time. All these statistics are seperated by power play, penalty kill and even strength as one would expect.

I’m not sure how the website performs, although when I’ve tested it from remote locations it appears to work well, my database doesn’t scale well so as the season progresses some of the pages could take some time to process.

It would also be nice if readers let me know about features/data they want to see on this website. I've primarily made this website for myself, but feel others can benifit and it's easy to add more information to these pages. You can post requests in the comments. And of course if you find any bugs let me know, that would be great.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

How do you calculate shot quality neutral save percentage?

JavaGeek said...

I will give the simplest equation I always use
SQN% = 1-goals/(expected goals/0.1)
expected goals are determined by a regression, I give each shot a different percentage based on what goes in. I sum them up for each goalie to get the expected goals.

If you wanted to make this the normal save percentage then "expected goals" = shots * 0.1 and the equation becomes 1-goals/shots = save %. In the above equation if a player faces more difficult shots expected goals will be higher than shots * 0.1 and neutral save percentage goes up.

eg. Kiprosoff:
Save Percentage: 92.8%
Expected Goals: 53.96
Actual Goals: 37
Shots: 513

SQN% = 37/(53.96/0.1) = 93.1%

There are more detials in this PDF document: Shot Quality

The Forechecker said...

Are there any problems with the site currently? Whenever I've clicked on the link or typed in the URL, nothing comes up.

JavaGeek said...

There should be no problems currently, the name server [no-ip.org] could be down periodically or my home PC might reboot, but as the moment of writing this I have no trouble accessing the site

You can access the site directly using my ip address: here, but this ip address changes about once a month, so I needed a link that doesn't die.

Thanks for informing me of problems.

Earl Sleek said...

I can't tell you why, but for me, most times the link doesn't work. It might be the firewall at my work, but I'm no real expert.

At the odd times when the link does work for me, I love it, though.

A fantastic resource.