Updated Prediction ModelI've done quite a bit of work on my prediction algorithm's and I am extremely happy with the results: With less than dozen games per team so far, I have a pretty good idea of the probabilities of a team making the playoffs. Although my model is designed to predict individual games and not outcomes over the course of a season it seems to do a reasonable job at doing so anyway.
I used my algorithm to review the 2009 - 2010 results and grouped teams into 3 categories:
Top 10, Middle 10 and Bottom 10 after 154 games were played.
Top 10: 8.4 teams in this group were expected to be in the playoffs, 8 made it (Dallas & NYR didn't make it)
Middle 10: 6.1 were expected to make the playoffs in this group. 5 actually did.
Bottom 10: 1.5 were expected to make the playoffs in this group. 3 made it: Detroit 35%, Boston 32%, Nashville 7%.
Overall these results suggest that my model does not differ significantly from the true results (although my model is based on 4 seasons, which include last season)
My model says they have a 3% chance of making the playoffs
And on that note I can say with a bit of confidence that: New Jersey is probably not going to be in the playoffs (namely, they are statistically out of the playoffs at this point). Right now their win percentage is 23%. They're Pythagorean percentage sits at 18% (GF^2/(GF^2 + GA^2). I should mention, they have been a little unlucky in the neighborhood of -15 GF. Including these goals in their totals would only improve their winning percentage to 41%. Now with the injury to Parise they have an up hill battle for the rest of the season.