November 2, 2010

New Jersey

Updated Prediction Model
I've done quite a bit of work on my prediction algorithm's and I am extremely happy with the results: With less than dozen games per team so far, I have a pretty good idea of the probabilities of a team making the playoffs. Although my model is designed to predict individual games and not outcomes over the course of a season it seems to do a reasonable job at doing so anyway.

Results
I used my algorithm to review the 2009 - 2010 results and grouped teams into 3 categories:
Top 10, Middle 10 and Bottom 10 after 154 games were played.

Top 10: 8.4 teams in this group were expected to be in the playoffs, 8 made it (Dallas & NYR didn't make it)
Middle 10: 6.1 were expected to make the playoffs in this group. 5 actually did.
Bottom 10: 1.5 were expected to make the playoffs in this group. 3 made it: Detroit 35%, Boston 32%, Nashville 7%.

Overall these results suggest that my model does not differ significantly from the true results (although my model is based on 4 seasons, which include last season)

My model says they have a 3% chance of making the playoffs
And on that note I can say with a bit of confidence that: New Jersey is probably not going to be in the playoffs (namely, they are statistically out of the playoffs at this point). Right now their win percentage is 23%. They're Pythagorean percentage sits at 18% (GF^2/(GF^2 + GA^2). I should mention, they have been a little unlucky in the neighborhood of -15 GF. Including these goals in their totals would only improve their winning percentage to 41%. Now with the injury to Parise they have an up hill battle for the rest of the season.

Sunny Mehta said...

so you'd lay me 31-to-1 on the devils making the playoffs?

JavaGeek said...

Interesting proposition. I'm not a big fan of betting (although I am a fan of putting money where your mouth is). Considering some of my concerns in the article, the odds I'd be willing to take is 18-1 (concerns being 2x as many teams in the bottom group made it then expected and N.J has been unlucky). Although it's my opinion that the Parise injury is a much bigger factor than my predictions.

You don't make a lot of money taking "short" odds like these though

You got me checking my work a little more thoroughly though.

Sunny Mehta said...

fair enough. i'll take the 18-to-1. what amount?

JavaGeek said...

\$10 if N.J doesn't make it (for me)
\$180 if N.J makes it (for you)

Sunny Mehta said...

Deal.

I know you're good for it, Chris, so I'll just bookmark this thread and revisit at the end of the season.

Bold prediction by you, imo.

Good luck. :)