July 14, 2010

Northwest Expecations - 2010

I'm still tweaking these, but this is a start. I've adjusted my technique. I've pulled 5 years worth of data to generate these tables. The "young" player problem still exists (because I lack data to differentiate between a good 19 year old or a average 19 year old).

Notation:
Name [GFScore@EV, GAScore@EV]

I've separated out PP & PK now. However these values are based on the player's past performance over the last 5 years. The first 7 rows only included EV goals. there are still some bugs (eg. Johnny vs. John...), which I am working on (I have to find all of them first).

Note: the percentage besting the team's name is the percentage of salary cap used.



















The little arrows indicate whether there is a substantial change in the team's expected points from last season (more than 10 difference).

Note: These include RFA's who haven't signed yet.

5 comments:

Sean said...

Your standings are for the wrong division.

Also what impact would would estimate Hall, Pajarvi and Eberle to have? Tough to estimate without last years data ...

JavaGeek said...

Fixed..

Yes, you don't know what the young player's will do, which is too bad.

Ron said...

I don't see Backstrom for the Wild, only Harding?

JavaGeek said...

Thanks Ron, I'll add "Nicklas Backstrom" to my list of names with multiple player's (Nicklas Backstrom on WAS and Nicklas Backstrom G on MIN). [If you look @ Washington you'll see him there]

I have to fix these manually.

Scott Reynolds said...

I'm sure you already know this but you have the WC with a projected GD of -317 and the EC with a projected GD of -232. Is the plan to bring the GD number back to 0 as more players get signed?

I'm also finding the individual charts a bit confusing. How are the GF and GA columns at the far right of each chart calculated?