So, here is a compilation of all the saves/goals/shots etc. each goalie faced over the last 5 years (inc. playoffs). I may be missing some games, but there is a lot of data here. The "Cred" column is just adjusting the shot quality neutral save percentage based on number of shots faced (regressing to the mean).
EG = Expected Goals
G = Actual Goals
SQN = shot quality neutral save percentage
= 1- 0.0926*G /EG
SV% = real save percentage
= 1 - G / S
Note: The expected goals are adjusted for site based biased shot information.
Few things of note
- Save percentages over 0.920 are not really sustainable (8 goalies in 2010).
- I didn't realize how good Hiller is.
- Raycroft is really bad (allowed almost 100 more goals than average)
N | name | C | EG | G | SVPCT | SQN | Cred | 1 | Henrik Lundqvist | 10175 | 1010 | 847 | 0.917 | 0.922 | 0.919 | 2 | Jonas Hiller | 4178 | 402 | 323 | 0.923 | 0.926 | 0.918 | 3 | Tomas Vokoun | 9550 | 853 | 753 | 0.921 | 0.918 | 0.915 | 4 | Jaroslav Halak | 3677 | 348 | 297 | 0.919 | 0.921 | 0.913 | 5 | Roberto Luongo | 11234 | 995 | 929 | 0.917 | 0.914 | 0.911 | 6 | Craig Anderson | 4857 | 452 | 405 | 0.917 | 0.917 | 0.911 | 7 | Timothy Thomas | 8388 | 726 | 684 | 0.918 | 0.913 | 0.910 | 8 | Dominik Hasek | 3899 | 363 | 332 | 0.915 | 0.915 | 0.909 | 9 | Cam Ward | 8739 | 836 | 813 | 0.907 | 0.910 | 0.907 | 10 | Cristobal Huet | 6549 | 581 | 559 | 0.915 | 0.911 | 0.907 | 11 | Chris Mason | 6652 | 604 | 579 | 0.913 | 0.911 | 0.907 | 12 | Martin Brodeur | 10354 | 871 | 861 | 0.917 | 0.909 | 0.906 | 13 | James Howard | 2464 | 213 | 195 | 0.921 | 0.915 | 0.906 | 14 | Dan Ellis | 3198 | 289 | 275 | 0.914 | 0.912 | 0.905 | 15 | J.S Giguere | 7767 | 693 | 685 | 0.912 | 0.908 | 0.905 | 16 | Pekka Rinne | 3203 | 290 | 276 | 0.914 | 0.912 | 0.905 | 17 | Ilja Bryzgalov | 7851 | 665 | 667 | 0.915 | 0.907 | 0.904 | 18 | Miikka Kiprusoff | 11244 | 954 | 972 | 0.914 | 0.906 | 0.904 | 19 | Dwayne Roloson | 8565 | 769 | 772 | 0.910 | 0.907 | 0.904 | 20 | Kari Lehtonen | 6679 | 596 | 595 | 0.911 | 0.908 | 0.904 | 21 | Manny Fernandez | 3557 | 313 | 304 | 0.915 | 0.910 | 0.904 | 22 | Nikolai Khabibulin | 6651 | 629 | 641 | 0.904 | 0.906 | 0.903 | 23 | Niklas Backstrom | 6662 | 543 | 549 | 0.918 | 0.906 | 0.903 | 24 | Ryan Miller | 10516 | 862 | 884 | 0.916 | 0.905 | 0.903 | 25 | Steve Mason | 3451 | 321 | 320 | 0.907 | 0.908 | 0.902 | 26 | Martin Biron | 7202 | 623 | 651 | 0.910 | 0.903 | 0.901 | 27 | Evgeni Nabokov | 9187 | 794 | 833 | 0.909 | 0.903 | 0.901 | 28 | Rick Dipietro | 5960 | 539 | 558 | 0.906 | 0.904 | 0.901 | 29 | Josh Harding | 2251 | 194 | 190 | 0.916 | 0.909 | 0.901 | 30 | Jason Labarbera | 3163 | 287 | 290 | 0.908 | 0.906 | 0.900 | 31 | Marty Turco | 9132 | 811 | 854 | 0.906 | 0.903 | 0.900 | 32 | M.A Fleury | 9616 | 839 | 887 | 0.908 | 0.902 | 0.900 | 33 | Carey Price | 4539 | 395 | 408 | 0.910 | 0.904 | 0.900 | 34 | Manny Legace | 4112 | 379 | 389 | 0.905 | 0.905 | 0.900 | 35 | Martin Gerber | 5169 | 461 | 486 | 0.906 | 0.902 | 0.899 | 36 | Ray Emery | 5114 | 451 | 478 | 0.907 | 0.902 | 0.899 | 37 | Pascal Leclaire | 4363 | 394 | 420 | 0.904 | 0.901 | 0.898 | 38 | Jonathan Quick | 3371 | 298 | 313 | 0.907 | 0.903 | 0.898 | 39 | Ty Conklin | 3512 | 300 | 316 | 0.910 | 0.902 | 0.898 | 40 | Alexander Auld | 5245 | 473 | 513 | 0.902 | 0.900 | 0.897 | 41 | Peter Budaj | 5170 | 460 | 502 | 0.903 | 0.899 | 0.896 | 42 | Mathieu Garon | 5314 | 473 | 518 | 0.903 | 0.899 | 0.896 | 43 | Brian Elliott | 2334 | 210 | 222 | 0.905 | 0.902 | 0.896 | 44 | Chris Osgood | 5058 | 446 | 485 | 0.904 | 0.899 | 0.896 | 45 | Jose Theodore | 6974 | 635 | 700 | 0.900 | 0.898 | 0.896 | 46 | Antero Niittymaki | 5913 | 527 | 578 | 0.902 | 0.898 | 0.896 | 47 | Joey Macdonald | 2220 | 212 | 223 | 0.900 | 0.902 | 0.896 | 48 | Brian Boucher | 2586 | 245 | 263 | 0.898 | 0.900 | 0.895 | 49 | Brent Johnson | 3375 | 299 | 331 | 0.902 | 0.898 | 0.894 | 50 | Johan Hedberg | 4299 | 386 | 430 | 0.900 | 0.897 | 0.894 | 51 | Curtis Sanford | 2352 | 215 | 234 | 0.901 | 0.899 | 0.894 | 52 | Vesa Toskala | 6217 | 558 | 632 | 0.898 | 0.895 | 0.893 | 53 | Scott Clemmensen | 2311 | 195 | 216 | 0.907 | 0.898 | 0.893 | 54 | Ed Belfour | 3026 | 279 | 309 | 0.898 | 0.897 | 0.893 | 55 | Olaf Kolzig | 5425 | 476 | 543 | 0.900 | 0.894 | 0.892 | 56 | Mike Smith | 3805 | 312 | 354 | 0.907 | 0.895 | 0.892 | 57 | David Aebischer | 2435 | 220 | 245 | 0.899 | 0.897 | 0.892 | 58 | Curtis Joseph | 3768 | 341 | 393 | 0.896 | 0.893 | 0.891 | 59 | Fredrik Norrena | 2410 | 210 | 244 | 0.899 | 0.892 | 0.889 | 60 | Patrick Lalime | 3116 | 280 | 327 | 0.895 | 0.892 | 0.889 | 61 | Mikael Tellqvist | 2636 | 227 | 270 | 0.898 | 0.890 | 0.887 | 62 | Andrew Raycroft | 4553 | 406 | 500 | 0.890 | 0.886 | 0.885 | 63 | Marc Denis | 2779 | 247 | 305 | 0.890 | 0.886 | 0.884 | 64 | John Grahame | 2675 | 237 | 301 | 0.887 | 0.882 | 0.882 | 65 | Johan Holmqvist | 2466 | 199 | 268 | 0.891 | 0.875 | 0.876 |
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3 comments:
Crikey
That Halak kid doesn't look too bad either, uh?
I still haven't tabulated the whole stuff (I'm lazy now) but after reading David Staples interview with Jim Corsi, where Corsi said he used Scoring Chances Save % as an indicator, I made a quick look at Price and Halak's and again Jaro was way in front.
I'm curious to see how much Price and Halak will end up getting paid.
Good stuff Javageek. One question (so far). When you say that the "Cred" column regresses these goalies to the mean based on the number of shots they've faced, what are you using for a mean? So far as I can tell, almost all of the goalies see their number go down, which seems a bit odd.
For cred I am using 0.88 as the mean for a "marginal" goalie (a goalie at the lowest possible level for the NHL). Otherwise you end up increasing the percentage on goalies with small samples and very few shots (generally these are marginal goalies). It has only a slight effect on the high shot goalies though
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