Northwest Expectations

Last year I designed really complicated tables to try and calculate which teams would be successful. I tried to simplify things this year. I used 1 simple source for the data: HockeyDB. All I do is add up all the points per game (in their career) and multiply by the number of games per season and then divide by the number of points per goal (~2.7). There are a few minor adjustments for games played and age (young players get a boost, older players get a reduction). Teams without enough signed players are given a small amount for a marginal player. I should also thank Cory Brolund for his excellent free agent website.

I've added defense to the data. I've separated the even strength defense (to the right of the offense) for each line. I've done my best to predict the penalty killing. And then adjusted for goal tending.

Note: the number of points per game I used to calculated the expected offense is displayed in the brackets.

Vancouver Canucks GF GA Pavol Demitra [0.87] Daniel Sedin [0.63] Henrik Sedin [0.62] 70 35 Kyle Wellwood [0.52] Steve Bernier [0.44] Mason Raymond [0.37] 44 29 Taylor Pyatt [0.35] Ryan Kesler [0.30] Matt Pettinger [0.27] 30 18 Alexandre Burrows [0.21] Jason Jaffray [0.19] Jeff Cowan [0.17] 19 12 Mattias Ohlund [0.42] Sami Salo [0.37] 26 28 Kevin Bieksa [0.32] Alexander Edler [0.20] 17 22 Lukas Krajicek [0.20] Willie Mitchell [0.16] 12 16 PK: 62 Luongo: -16 Sanford: 7 218 214

Minnesota Wild GF GA Marian Gaborik [0.81] Owen Nolan [0.65] Andrew Brunette [0.61] 68 37 Pierre-marc Bouchard [0.58] Mikko Koivu [0.52] Eric Belanger [0.42] 50 29 Antti Miettinen [0.33] James Sheppard [0.20] Stephane Veilleux [0.20] 24 16 Benoit Pouliot [0.09] Derek Boogaard [0.03] ??? [~0.0.08] 7 15 Marek Zidlicky [0.52] Marc-andre Bergeron [0.42] 31 32 Kim Johnsson [0.37] Kurtis Foster [0.36] 24 20 Brent Burns [0.30] Martin Skoula [0.23] 17 15 PK: 55 Backstrom: 8 Harding: 3 221 232

Edmonton Oilers GF GA Ales Hemsky [0.70] Erik Cole [0.61] Sam Gagner [0.58] 62 42 Shawn Horcoff [0.56] Andrew Cogliano [0.51] Dustin Penner [0.48] 51 36 Robert Nilsson [0.42] Fernando Pisani [0.39] Ethan Moreau [0.30] 36 21 Kyle Brodziak [0.27] Gilbert Brule [0.20] Marc-antoine Pouliot [0.19] 22 12 Lubomir Visnovsky [0.52] Tom Gilbert [0.35] 29 34 Sheldon Souray [0.34] Steve Staios [0.19] 17 25 Denis Grebeshkov [0.18] Ladislav Smid [0.08] 9 16 PK: 56 Garon: -8 Roloson: 8 226 241

Colorado Avalanche GF GA Paul Stastny [0.98] Milan Hejduk [0.80] Ryan Smyth [0.68] 81 42 Wojtek Wolski [0.64] Marek Svatos [0.56] Tyler Arnason [0.50] 56 35 Darcy Tucker [0.50] Brian Willsie [0.28] T.j. Hensick [0.28] 35 21 Ian Laperriere [0.27] Ben Guite [0.22] Cody Mcleod [0.13] 20 14 John-michael Liles [0.45] Jordan Leopold [0.29] 24 30 Brett Clark [0.26] Scott Hannan [0.23] 16 25 Ruslan Salei [0.21] Adam Foote [0.20] 13 17 PK: 60 Budaj: 4 Raycroft: 17 245 265

Calgary Flames GF GA Jarome Iginla [0.86] Todd Bertuzzi [0.69] Mike Cammalleri [0.67] 73 41 Daymond Langkow [0.61] Craig Conroy [0.47] Matthew Lombardi [0.41] 49 29 Rene Bourque [0.36] Marcus Nilson [0.30] Curtis Glencross [0.29] 31 19 David Moss [0.28] Wayne Primeau [0.24] Dustin Boyd [0.22] 24 14 Dion Phaneuf [0.59] Adrian Aucoin [0.33] 30 28 Anders Eriksson [0.28] James Vandermeer [0.22] 16 23 Robyn Regehr [0.20] Cory Sarich [0.14] 11 14 PK: 54 Kiprusoff: 13 Backup: 5 234 242