April 21, 2008

Boston @ Montreal


MTL
BOS
#GEGS%
GEGSV%
Game 1:46.291.111.193.7
Game 2:35.690.222.094.8
Game 3:11.493.022.893.0
Game 4:12.210001.595.5
Game 5:12.377.752.295.7
Game 6:44.086.053.590.2
Game 7:54.910001.990.0
Series [4-3]1926.690.21515.093.0

What more could you ask for than a Boston - Montreal series. I doubt there will be any writers who believe Boston: a team who can't score and who has unproven goalies can beat a team who can score a lot of goals. The 8 game season series between the two teams was an embarrassment for Boston who average 5 goals against. Boston is one of the worst teams to make the playoffs this season. Unless they can get near perfect goaltending they wont last much more than 5 games. That all said, Montreal dominance really only comes on the special teams and if Boston can stay out of the box and limit Montreal to 1 or 2 goals at even strength they could get something going. No goalies in this series have more than a couple games experience in playoff hockey so one could potentially succumb to the pressure and that team may ultimately lose.


MTLBOSWinner
Even Strength
GF2.482.16
EGF2.332.28
GA2.382.11
EGA2.542.31
SV%90.6%90.8%
Power Play
GF11.056.55
EGF7.976.12
GA0.430.85
EGA0.651.69
SV%90.6%88.9%

The winner column displays the dominant team in that category. The more pictures of the team's logo the more dominant the team is in that category

All the non-percentage numbers are scoring rates. For example on the first row, the Montreal Canadiens have an even strength scoring rate of 2.48 goal for per hour. [GF = goals for, GA = goals against Exx = expected xx, SV% = shot quality neutral save percentage].

In the power play section in order to calculate the expected scoring rates I multiplied the goals for rate of one team and the goals against rate of the other and divide by the league average in order to get the expected rate for these two teams combined. So for example, the Montreal Canadiens have a power play goals for rate of 9.22 and the Boston Bruins have a penalty killing goals against rate of 7.79. So 9.22*7.79/6.5=11.05 [league average is 6.5].

Outperforming expected goals for is a sign of a lucky team. Outperforming expected goals against is a sign of either a good goaltender or luck as well.

Each category listed has a different importance to winning, so be careful how you read these. Being able to score short-handed isn't going to win a lot of hockey games.

1 comment:

The Commentator said...

I gotta say, Boston has impressed. With a little luck they could easily be up 3-2. Montreal has not played to their potential.