I'm a big believer in "shot quality" as many readers have likely noticed. If players have an impact on the quality of shots a goalie sees, then they should affect how many pucks the goalie stops. If a goalie generally stops 90% of shots then a player who makes shots twice as easy to save should have a save percentage of 95%. Of course players have a much smaller impact of save percentage than goalies do.
In order to see if players can affect save percentage I did a season vs. season regression: I check if the players who out performed in 2005-2006 continued to outperform in 2008-2007. If there is a significant relationship between the two seasons then obviously players impact save percentage.
The regression does come out significant, which agrees with the theory that players can affect shot quality.
The regression is reasonably simple:
Difference in team's save percentage in 2006 vs. 2007 =
DPlayer's Save Percentage in 2006 =
Save%
So:
Player's Save Percentage in 2006 = 0.7 + 0.235*Save% + 0.618*D
Basically the above equation is a regression towards the mean: it takes extreme values and brings them closer to the average (0.920).
Note: this data only includes even strength shots.
However, this data is worthless for predicting how a player will do next year due to the large amounts of variability. For example Crosby had a n excellent save percentage this season of 0.930, this system says he'll likely perform at 0.919 given identical goaltending as last season, however he could easily do as poorly as 0.890 with bad luck or as well as 0.950 with good luck. A 2% difference in save percentage on 600 shots works out to about 12 goals over the course of a season. So this large range of possible save percentages for players can have a large impact of a player's plus-minus, often due to just luck.
ResultsAny way most people will want to see the results
N | I | Lastname | Save% | Shots | 1 | T | Green | 0.988 | 85 | 2 | A | Semenov | 0.982 | 109 | 3 | S | Bates | 0.972 | 216 | 4 | P | Sejna | 0.968 | 93 | 5 | J | Krog | 0.967 | 122 | 6 | M | Hartigan | 0.966 | 58 | 7 | C | Kobasew | 0.964 | 274 | 8 | S | Parker | 0.961 | 51 | 9 | B | Isbister | 0.960 | 126 | 10 | A | Peters | 0.958 | 96 | 11 | C | Thorburn | 0.958 | 143 | 12 | A | Edler | 0.957 | 92 | 13 | B | Mcgrattan | 0.956 | 90 | 14 | A | Perezhogin | 0.955 | 313 | 15 | J | Langfeld | 0.955 | 67 | 16 | R | Fitzpatrick | 0.954 | 307 | 17 | R | Petrovicky | 0.954 | 109 | 18 | R | Martinek | 0.954 | 325 | 19 | J | Ortmeyer | 0.954 | 173 | 20 | R | Callahan | 0.952 | 63 | 21 | M | Nilson | 0.951 | 286 | 22 | T | Preissing | 0.950 | 443 | 23 | S | Nichol | 0.950 | 260 | 24 | M | Chouinard | 0.950 | 139 | 25 | J | Hudler | 0.949 | 256 | 26 | D | Mccarty | 0.949 | 78 | 27 | C | Schubert | 0.948 | 424 | 28 | C | Orr | 0.947 | 133 | 29 | P | Harrold | 0.947 | 57 | 30 | A | Hutchinson | 0.947 | 150 | 31 | S | Mccarthy | 0.947 | 187 | 32 | A | Mair | 0.946 | 298 | 33 | C | Janssen | 0.946 | 93 | 34 | J | Vigier | 0.946 | 297 | 35 | S | Salo | 0.946 | 445 | 36 | P | Bouchard | 0.946 | 461 | 37 | J | Slater | 0.945 | 330 | 38 | M | Hossa | 0.945 | 293 | 39 | J | Dowd | 0.945 | 200 | 40 | J | Jokinen | 0.945 | 361 | 41 | E | Boulton | 0.944 | 126 | 42 | J | Cowan | 0.944 | 233 | 43 | S | Veilleux | 0.944 | 374 | 44 | K | Huselius | 0.944 | 425 | 45 | R | Regehr | 0.943 | 633 | 46 | M | Sillinger | 0.943 | 509 | 47 | G | Laraque | 0.943 | 315 | 48 | F | Kaberle | 0.943 | 140 | 49 | A | Wozniewski | 0.943 | 87 | 50 | J | Green | 0.942 | 226 | 51 | T | White | 0.942 | 467 | 52 | C | Macarthur | 0.942 | 86 | 53 | B | Rolston | 0.942 | 481 | 54 | S | Hartnell | 0.941 | 358 | 55 | C | Neil | 0.941 | 425 | 56 | P | Gaustad | 0.941 | 237 | 57 | C | Simon | 0.940 | 318 | 58 | M | Modano | 0.940 | 301 | 59 | J | Leclair | 0.940 | 117 | 60 | B | Ritchie | 0.940 | 266 | 61 | J | Tambellini | 0.940 | 83 | 62 | T | Vanek | 0.940 | 531 | 63 | A | Ference | 0.939 | 577 | 64 | H | Sedin | 0.939 | 494 | 65 | M | Malik | 0.939 | 477 | 66 | S | Bernier | 0.939 | 310 | 67 | A | Brooks | 0.938 | 65 | 68 | J | Franzen | 0.938 | 308 | 69 | B | Lebda | 0.938 | 370 | 70 | G | Zanon | 0.938 | 418 | 71 | R | Getzlaf | 0.938 | 337 | 72 | M | Johnson | 0.937 | 510 | 73 | J | Lehtinen | 0.937 | 366 | 74 | R | Hamrlik | 0.937 | 636 | 75 | J | Klemm | 0.937 | 190 | 76 | B | Guerin | 0.937 | 427 | 77 | J | Zeiler | 0.937 | 79 | 78 | B | Mezei | 0.937 | 300 | 79 | N | Alexeev | 0.936 | 391 | 80 | D | Roy | 0.936 | 500 | 81 | H | Zetterberg | 0.936 | 327 | 82 | V | Fiddler | 0.936 | 389 | 83 | D | Markov | 0.936 | 420 | 84 | C | Pronger | 0.936 | 482 | 85 | C | Kelly | 0.936 | 466 | 86 | G | Exelby | 0.936 | 419 | 87 | D | Vyborny | 0.935 | 480 | 88 | C | Perry | 0.935 | 325 | 89 | T | Linden | 0.935 | 339 | 90 | K | Carney | 0.935 | 462 | 91 | D | Legwand | 0.935 | 615 | 92 | K | Foster | 0.935 | 369 | 93 | N | Lidstrom | 0.935 | 553 | 94 | D | Heatley | 0.935 | 643 | 95 | D | Hamel | 0.935 | 153 | 96 | T | Santala | 0.935 | 107 | 97 | P | Stefan | 0.935 | 168 | 98 | D | Sedin | 0.934 | 488 | 99 | D | Boyd | 0.934 | 61 | 100 | A | Greene | 0.934 | 122 | 101 | B | Muir | 0.934 | 137 | 102 | A | Kastsitsyn | 0.934 | 137 | 103 | A | Asham | 0.934 | 350 | 104 | B | Allen | 0.934 | 182 | 105 | B | Rafalski | 0.934 | 743 | 106 | O | Tollefsen | 0.934 | 393 | 107 | G | Metropolit | 0.934 | 332 | 108 | D | Moore | 0.934 | 346 | 109 | O | Saprykin | 0.934 | 376 | 110 | M | Lombardi | 0.933 | 480 | 111 | J | Pandolfo | 0.933 | 615 | 112 | V | Filppula | 0.933 | 255 | 113 | D | Paille | 0.933 | 150 | 114 | M | Pouliot | 0.933 | 225 | 115 | B | Witt | 0.933 | 703 | 116 | M | Rozsival | 0.933 | 538 | 117 | M | Afinogenov | 0.933 | 388 | 118 | A | Radulov | 0.933 | 313 | 119 | B | Holik | 0.933 | 506 | 120 | M | Giordano | 0.933 | 208 | 121 | L | Eriksson | 0.933 | 282 | 122 | S | Hnidy | 0.933 | 460 | 123 | A | Nasreddine | 0.933 | 252 | 124 | D | Alfredsson | 0.932 | 548 | 125 | E | Lindros | 0.932 | 222 | 126 | R | Fedotenko | 0.932 | 503 | 127 | K | Tkachuk | 0.932 | 487 | 128 | C | Chelios | 0.932 | 383 | 129 | B | Gervais | 0.932 | 324 | 130 | R | Zednik | 0.932 | 265 | 131 | J | Schultz | 0.932 | 265 | 132 | M | Parrish | 0.932 | 337 | 133 | J | Friesen | 0.932 | 336 | 134 | N | Welch | 0.932 | 146 | 135 | J | Modry | 0.931 | 423 | 136 | S | Montador | 0.931 | 350 | 137 | P | Schaefer | 0.931 | 480 | 138 | M | Skoula | 0.931 | 669 | 139 | A | Volchenkov | 0.931 | 566 | 140 | K | Timonen | 0.931 | 624 | 141 | P | Kessel | 0.931 | 434 | 142 | A | Yashin | 0.931 | 405 | 143 | J | Hoggan | 0.931 | 159 | 144 | P | Datsyuk | 0.931 | 419 | 145 | R | Warrener | 0.931 | 433 | 146 | B | Orpik | 0.931 | 519 | 147 | T | Poti | 0.931 | 634 | 148 | B | Betts | 0.931 | 389 | 149 | M | Erat | 0.930 | 488 | 150 | S | Mellanby | 0.930 | 330 | 151 | H | Tallinder | 0.930 | 416 | 152 | P | Marleau | 0.930 | 516 | 153 | R | Hollweg | 0.930 | 314 | 154 | G | De vries | 0.930 | 699 | 155 | S | Crosby | 0.930 | 556 | 156 | A | Markov | 0.930 | 641 | 157 | J | Ruutu | 0.930 | 298 | 158 | P | Thoresen | 0.929 | 326 | 159 | M | Stuart | 0.929 | 85 | 160 | J | Staal | 0.929 | 354 | 161 | J | Madden | 0.929 | 566 | 162 | T | Kostopoulos | 0.929 | 382 | 163 | M | Rycroft | 0.929 | 240 | 164 | V | Kozlov | 0.929 | 564 | 165 | T | Hunter | 0.929 | 437 | 166 | M | Jones | 0.929 | 338 | 167 | S | Weber | 0.929 | 689 | 168 | B | Gionta | 0.929 | 351 | 169 | A | Rourke | 0.929 | 70 | 170 | D | Cleary | 0.928 | 348 | 171 | T | Plekanec | 0.928 | 501 | 172 | T | Amonte | 0.928 | 417 | 173 | M | Walker | 0.928 | 264 | 174 | M | Ohlund | 0.928 | 624 | 175 | M | Fisher | 0.928 | 402 | 176 | T | Zajac | 0.928 | 471 | 177 | M | Straka | 0.928 | 429 | 178 | M | Naslund | 0.928 | 498 | 179 | D | Fritsche | 0.928 | 332 | 180 | D | Kasparaitis | 0.928 | 166 | 181 | P | Kariya | 0.928 | 650 | 182 | M | Gaborik | 0.928 | 318 | 183 | M | Zidlicky | 0.928 | 608 | 184 | J | Pavelski | 0.928 | 221 | 185 | M | Svatos | 0.927 | 303 | 186 | N | Pratt | 0.927 | 468 | 187 | A | Hilbert | 0.927 | 399 | 188 | M | Mowers | 0.927 | 440 | 189 | A | Steen | 0.927 | 467 | 190 | M | Schneider | 0.927 | 439 | 191 | B | Burns | 0.927 | 466 | 192 | J | Woywitka | 0.927 | 178 | 193 | T | Pyatt | 0.927 | 397 | 194 | A | Zyuzin | 0.927 | 246 | 195 | P | Mara | 0.927 | 697 | 196 | J | Sim | 0.927 | 355 | 197 | C | Phillips | 0.927 | 641 | 198 | J | Blake | 0.927 | 586 | 199 | B | Coburn | 0.927 | 327 | 200 | P | Axelsson | 0.927 | 422 | 201 | R | Lang | 0.926 | 435 | 202 | R | Bonk | 0.926 | 462 | 203 | T | Selanne | 0.926 | 461 | 204 | S | Gomez | 0.926 | 447 | 205 | D | Langkow | 0.926 | 501 | 206 | J | Arnott | 0.926 | 460 | 207 | S | Brylin | 0.926 | 527 | 208 | R | Globke | 0.926 | 54 | 209 | M | Jurcina | 0.926 | 472 | 210 | R | Whitney | 0.926 | 619 | 211 | J | Oduya | 0.926 | 497 | 212 | S | Upshall | 0.926 | 188 | 213 | M | Bradley | 0.925 | 308 | 214 | C | Rivet | 0.925 | 629 | 215 | T | Daley | 0.925 | 495 | 216 | C | Sarich | 0.925 | 548 | 217 | T | Numminen | 0.925 | 668 | 218 | L | Kukkonen | 0.925 | 454 | 219 | J | Spezza | 0.925 | 493 | 220 | D | Kalinin | 0.925 | 706 | 221 | S | Hill | 0.925 | 706 | 222 | A | Eriksson | 0.925 | 479 | 223 | S | Avery | 0.925 | 479 | 224 | S | Yelle | 0.925 | 306 | 225 | F | Beauchemin | 0.925 | 585 | 226 | B | Mclean | 0.925 | 411 | 227 | D | Backes | 0.925 | 212 | 228 | B | May | 0.925 | 106 | 229 | J | Finger | 0.925 | 106 | 230 | C | Kunitz | 0.924 | 450 | 231 | N | Schultz | 0.924 | 622 | 232 | I | Kovalchuk | 0.924 | 569 | 233 | R | Suter | 0.924 | 567 | 234 | Y | Stastny | 0.924 | 79 | 235 | B | Young | 0.924 | 105 | 236 | E | Belanger | 0.924 | 472 | 237 | K | Johnsson | 0.924 | 590 | 238 | D | Hale | 0.924 | 236 | 239 | D | Sydor | 0.924 | 485 | 240 | J | Spacek | 0.924 | 432 | 241 | M | Green | 0.924 | 432 | 242 | S | Staios | 0.924 | 471 | 243 | J | Shelley | 0.924 | 157 | 244 | K | Mclaren | 0.924 | 510 | 245 | M | Recchi | 0.923 | 549 | 246 | J | Heward | 0.923 | 483 | 247 | W | Smith | 0.923 | 261 | 248 | R | Johnson | 0.923 | 313 | 249 | C | White | 0.923 | 625 | 250 | R | Malone | 0.923 | 364 | 251 | A | Tanguay | 0.923 | 559 | 252 | M | Goc | 0.923 | 286 | 253 | B | Jones | 0.923 | 52 | 254 | M | Methot | 0.923 | 117 | 255 | D | Briere | 0.923 | 649 | 256 | A | Foote | 0.923 | 493 | 257 | O | Vaananen | 0.923 | 492 | 258 | J | Jacques | 0.923 | 142 | 259 | B | Gordon | 0.923 | 413 | 260 | R | Polak | 0.922 | 129 | 261 | B | Lukowich | 0.922 | 605 | 262 | M | Holmqvist | 0.922 | 296 | 263 | B | Seabrook | 0.922 | 579 | 264 | W | Walz | 0.922 | 373 | 265 | K | Rachunek | 0.922 | 463 | 266 | D | Hordichuk | 0.922 | 128 | 267 | P | Rissmiller | 0.922 | 320 | 268 | M | Comrie | 0.922 | 371 | 269 | J | Liles | 0.922 | 370 | 270 | P | Martin | 0.922 | 727 | 271 | N | Baumgartner | 0.922 | 51 | 272 | J | Iginla | 0.922 | 561 | 273 | C | Macdonald | 0.922 | 102 | 274 | K | Barch | 0.922 | 51 | 275 | M | Michalek | 0.921 | 433 | 276 | A | Carter | 0.921 | 331 | 277 | S | Donovan | 0.921 | 496 | 278 | W | Mitchell | 0.921 | 483 | 279 | M | Ouellet | 0.921 | 381 | 280 | C | Adams | 0.921 | 292 | 281 | K | Bieksa | 0.921 | 660 | 282 | P | Tenkrat | 0.921 | 368 | 283 | B | Shanahan | 0.921 | 406 | 284 | M | Komisarek | 0.921 | 685 | 285 | B | Richardson | 0.921 | 342 | 286 | J | Stoll | 0.921 | 266 | 287 | D | Weight | 0.921 | 456 | 288 | M | Dandenault | 0.921 | 456 | 289 | S | Sullivan | 0.921 | 354 | 290 | K | Huskins | 0.921 | 177 | 291 | Z | Parise | 0.921 | 543 | 292 | C | Conroy | 0.921 | 467 | 293 | D | Phaneuf | 0.921 | 719 | 294 | M | Havlat | 0.921 | 340 | 295 | C | Brown | 0.921 | 340 | 296 | S | O'donnell | 0.921 | 554 | 297 | K | Stewart | 0.921 | 151 | 298 | A | Zhitnik | 0.920 | 704 | 299 | V | Nieminen | 0.920 | 176 | 300 | T | Holmstrom | 0.920 | 314 | 301 | M | Carle | 0.920 | 427 | 302 | P | Forsberg | 0.920 | 339 | 303 | P | Demitra | 0.920 | 477 | 304 | M | Barnaby | 0.920 | 138 | 305 | E | Rasmussen | 0.920 | 276 | 306 | A | Meszaros | 0.920 | 701 | 307 | D | Hamhuis | 0.920 | 688 | 308 | V | Vishnevski | 0.920 | 500 | 309 | S | Rucchin | 0.920 | 300 | 310 | R | Craig | 0.920 | 324 | 311 | D | Brashear | 0.920 | 274 | 312 | J | Chimera | 0.920 | 498 | 313 | J | Gorges | 0.920 | 336 | 314 | D | Girardi | 0.920 | 199 | 315 | S | Hannan | 0.920 | 609 | 316 | A | Sutton | 0.920 | 410 | 317 | F | Meyer iv | 0.920 | 410 | 318 | S | Zubov | 0.919 | 546 | 319 | G | Parros | 0.919 | 62 | 320 | A | Burrows | 0.919 | 285 | 321 | J | Lundqvist | 0.919 | 161 | 322 | C | Larose | 0.919 | 297 | 323 | B | Jackman | 0.919 | 506 | 324 | V | Kozlov | 0.919 | 543 | 325 | M | Satan | 0.919 | 543 | 326 | B | Richards | 0.919 | 617 | 327 | B | Sutherby | 0.919 | 407 | 328 | L | Smid | 0.919 | 629 | 329 | S | Thornton | 0.919 | 148 | 330 | P | Turgeon | 0.919 | 74 | 331 | M | Koivu | 0.919 | 443 | 332 | S | Ruzicka | 0.919 | 209 | 333 | J | Kolnik | 0.918 | 319 | 334 | J | Corvo | 0.918 | 515 | 335 | B | Laich | 0.918 | 331 | 336 | B | Larsen | 0.918 | 331 | 337 | D | Boogaard | 0.918 | 98 | 338 | C | Barker | 0.918 | 245 | 339 | M | Nylander | 0.918 | 502 | 340 | R | Dvorak | 0.918 | 502 | 341 | T | Lydman | 0.918 | 514 | 342 | L | Stempniak | 0.918 | 428 | 343 | M | Gelinas | 0.918 | 379 | 344 | N | Hagman | 0.918 | 391 | 345 | E | Brewer | 0.918 | 733 | 346 | W | Primeau | 0.918 | 464 | 347 | F | Modin | 0.918 | 415 | 348 | R | Shannon | 0.918 | 244 | 349 | M | Hossa | 0.918 | 561 | 350 | A | Svitov | 0.918 | 353 | 351 | K | Draper | 0.918 | 426 | 352 | J | Langenbrunner | 0.918 | 511 | 353 | R | Davison | 0.918 | 73 | 354 | M | Smith | 0.918 | 158 | 355 | J | Hecht | 0.918 | 571 | 356 | B | Radivojevic | 0.918 | 425 | 357 | J | Stumpel | 0.918 | 437 | 358 | C | Ehrhoff | 0.918 | 461 | 359 | A | Miettinen | 0.917 | 315 | 360 | S | Pahlsson | 0.917 | 436 | 361 | C | Backman | 0.917 | 436 | 362 | J | Jagr | 0.917 | 557 | 363 | C | Gratton | 0.917 | 448 | 364 | S | Robidas | 0.917 | 387 | 365 | P | Kubina | 0.917 | 387 | 366 | J | Williams | 0.917 | 387 | 367 | J | Rivers | 0.917 | 181 | 368 | J | Thornton | 0.917 | 482 | 369 | T | Kaberle | 0.917 | 554 | 370 | P | Elias | 0.917 | 445 | 371 | S | Morrisonn | 0.917 | 637 | 372 | B | Campbell | 0.917 | 661 | 373 | P | Boucher | 0.917 | 504 | 374 | M | Hejduk | 0.917 | 492 | 375 | R | Robitaille | 0.917 | 468 | 376 | R | Park | 0.917 | 324 | 377 | D | Wideman | 0.917 | 468 | 378 | G | Platt | 0.917 | 108 | 379 | N | Dempsey | 0.917 | 72 | 380 | J | Nieuwendyk | 0.917 | 72 | 381 | J | Dipenta | 0.917 | 360 | 382 | M | Lehtonen | 0.917 | 96 | 383 | T | Roche | 0.917 | 252 | 384 | O | Jokinen | 0.917 | 611 | 385 | I | Laperriere | 0.916 | 419 | 386 | T | Moen | 0.916 | 419 | 387 | Y | Perreault | 0.916 | 383 | 388 | M | Bergeron | 0.916 | 490 | 389 | B | Bochenski | 0.916 | 227 | 390 | A | Alberts | 0.916 | 669 | 391 | B | Mccabe | 0.916 | 657 | 392 | K | Wellwood | 0.916 | 238 | 393 | A | Vermette | 0.916 | 464 | 394 | Z | Chara | 0.916 | 737 | 395 | M | Cooke | 0.916 | 451 | 396 | J | Hamilton | 0.916 | 344 | 397 | T | Pock | 0.916 | 249 | 398 | L | Richardson | 0.916 | 83 | 399 | G | Campbell | 0.916 | 308 | 400 | P | O'sullivan | 0.916 | 225 | 401 | N | Paetsch | 0.916 | 367 | 402 | R | Smyth | 0.915 | 473 | 403 | A | Mcdonald | 0.915 | 473 | 404 | K | Beech | 0.915 | 307 | 405 | M | Cammalleri | 0.915 | 519 | 406 | G | Wesley | 0.915 | 401 | 407 | R | Klesla | 0.915 | 613 | 408 | R | Nash | 0.915 | 471 | 409 | R | Potulny | 0.915 | 153 | 410 | R | Hainsey | 0.915 | 588 | 411 | M | Ribeiro | 0.915 | 341 | 412 | B | Clymer | 0.915 | 423 | 413 | B | Salvador | 0.915 | 505 | 414 | P | Nummelin | 0.915 | 387 | 415 | S | Samsonov | 0.915 | 387 | 416 | D | Tanabe | 0.915 | 398 | 417 | C | Colaiacovo | 0.915 | 316 | 418 | J | Dumont | 0.914 | 538 | 419 | A | Karlsson | 0.914 | 187 | 420 | E | Christensen | 0.914 | 292 | 421 | J | O'neill | 0.914 | 362 | 422 | M | Cullen | 0.914 | 478 | 423 | R | Torres | 0.914 | 478 | 424 | O | Nolan | 0.914 | 407 | 425 | B | Winchester | 0.914 | 232 | 426 | B | Clark | 0.914 | 637 | 427 | K | Maltby | 0.914 | 359 | 428 | N | Havelid | 0.913 | 682 | 429 | N | Horton | 0.913 | 520 | 430 | S | Barnes | 0.913 | 439 | 431 | D | Arkhipov | 0.913 | 439 | 432 | M | Van ryn | 0.913 | 566 | 433 | R | Salei | 0.913 | 658 | 434 | V | Peltonen | 0.913 | 404 | 435 | T | Fedoruk | 0.913 | 288 | 436 | J | Lundmark | 0.913 | 357 | 437 | R | Olesz | 0.913 | 380 | 438 | R | Blake | 0.913 | 541 | 439 | S | Gonchar | 0.913 | 633 | 440 | J | Hejda | 0.913 | 310 | 441 | M | Zigomanis | 0.913 | 344 | 442 | D | Moss | 0.913 | 172 | 443 | F | Sjostrom | 0.913 | 401 | 444 | P | Fischer | 0.913 | 126 | 445 | D | Armstrong | 0.913 | 378 | 446 | M | Malhotra | 0.912 | 444 | 447 | R | Niedermayer | 0.912 | 432 | 448 | M | Stajan | 0.912 | 477 | 449 | A | Miller | 0.912 | 636 | 450 | A | Semin | 0.912 | 488 | 451 | A | Ward | 0.912 | 692 | 452 | P | Stastny | 0.912 | 476 | 453 | R | Kesler | 0.912 | 238 | 454 | M | Vlasic | 0.912 | 578 | 455 | J | Bouwmeester | 0.912 | 747 | 456 | L | Nagy | 0.912 | 464 | 457 | K | Klee | 0.912 | 645 | 458 | B | Smolinski | 0.912 | 430 | 459 | E | Perrin | 0.912 | 509 | 460 | A | Laaksonen | 0.912 | 147 | 461 | J | Klepis | 0.912 | 147 | 462 | J | Tootoo | 0.912 | 260 | 463 | M | Grier | 0.912 | 452 | 464 | M | Norstrom | 0.911 | 621 | 465 | J | Pominville | 0.911 | 564 | 466 | D | Hinote | 0.911 | 203 | 467 | J | Sakic | 0.911 | 575 | 468 | C | Clark | 0.911 | 518 | 469 | M | Eaton | 0.911 | 259 | 470 | C | Stillman | 0.911 | 281 | 471 | D | Drake | 0.911 | 303 | 472 | M | Talbot | 0.911 | 370 | 473 | J | Fahey | 0.911 | 56 | 474 | S | Chistov | 0.911 | 224 | 475 | Y | Tremblay | 0.911 | 56 | 476 | P | Dupuis | 0.911 | 425 | 477 | M | Lapointe | 0.911 | 369 | 478 | B | Hedican | 0.910 | 402 | 479 | A | Hall | 0.910 | 301 | 480 | J | Wisniewski | 0.910 | 301 | 481 | S | Ott | 0.910 | 78 | 482 | E | Jovanovski | 0.910 | 399 | 483 | J | Smith | 0.910 | 676 | 484 | J | Vandermeer | 0.910 | 299 | 485 | G | Roberts | 0.910 | 454 | 486 | R | Jackman | 0.910 | 155 | 487 | A | Hemsky | 0.910 | 354 | 488 | S | Niedermayer | 0.910 | 575 | 489 | B | Morrow | 0.910 | 210 | 490 | M | Peca | 0.910 | 221 | 491 | L | Krajicek | 0.909 | 464 | 492 | N | Antropov | 0.909 | 298 | 493 | M | Bell | 0.909 | 352 | 494 | E | Staal | 0.909 | 593 | 495 | A | Frolov | 0.909 | 549 | 496 | P | Eaves | 0.909 | 417 | 497 | M | Savard | 0.909 | 647 | 498 | R | Scuderi | 0.909 | 515 | 499 | S | Souray | 0.909 | 679 | 500 | J | Mcclement | 0.909 | 416 | 501 | T | Taylor | 0.909 | 175 | 502 | M | Rupp | 0.909 | 175 | 503 | F | Pisani | 0.908 | 459 | 504 | M | Roy | 0.908 | 98 | 505 | T | Ruutu | 0.908 | 381 | 506 | N | Kronvall | 0.908 | 413 | 507 | L | Visnovsky | 0.908 | 554 | 508 | D | Mcammond | 0.908 | 357 | 509 | A | Ponikarovsky | 0.907 | 400 | 510 | B | Guite | 0.907 | 162 | 511 | N | Tarnasky | 0.907 | 205 | 512 | W | Redden | 0.907 | 550 | 513 | R | Vrbata | 0.907 | 408 | 514 | J | Bulis | 0.907 | 397 | 515 | C | Higgins | 0.907 | 397 | 516 | J | Melichar | 0.907 | 515 | 517 | B | Morrison | 0.907 | 460 | 518 | D | Murray | 0.906 | 128 | 519 | F | Tyutin | 0.906 | 458 | 520 | P | Brisebois | 0.906 | 213 | 521 | B | Pothier | 0.906 | 596 | 522 | T | Bertuzzi | 0.906 | 85 | 523 | T | Letowski | 0.906 | 244 | 524 | M | Handzus | 0.906 | 53 | 525 | D | Booth | 0.906 | 180 | 526 | R | Clowe | 0.906 | 254 | 527 | K | Sauer | 0.905 | 327 | 528 | S | Begin | 0.905 | 274 | 529 | C | Campoli | 0.905 | 274 | 530 | A | Kopitar | 0.905 | 474 | 531 | S | Horcoff | 0.905 | 558 | 532 | B | Sopel | 0.905 | 431 | 533 | M | Sturm | 0.905 | 473 | 534 | S | Koivu | 0.905 | 515 | 535 | K | Ballard | 0.905 | 536 | 536 | J | Halpern | 0.905 | 399 | 537 | J | Immonen | 0.905 | 63 | 538 | W | Wolski | 0.905 | 451 | 539 | B | Battaglia | 0.905 | 409 | 540 | T | Marchant | 0.905 | 283 | 541 | R | Brind'amour | 0.905 | 524 | 542 | M | Reasoner | 0.905 | 377 | 543 | M | Rucinsky | 0.904 | 293 | 544 | C | Armstrong | 0.904 | 449 | 545 | R | Bourque | 0.904 | 261 | 546 | J | Mayers | 0.904 | 480 | 547 | A | Ovechkin | 0.904 | 697 | 548 | M | Blunden | 0.904 | 52 | 549 | A | Kovalev | 0.904 | 499 | 550 | S | Doan | 0.904 | 478 | 551 | M | Pettinger | 0.904 | 363 | 552 | G | Brule | 0.903 | 321 | 553 | G | Murray | 0.903 | 445 | 554 | M | Streit | 0.903 | 362 | 555 | M | Sundin | 0.903 | 434 | 556 | M | Lashoff | 0.903 | 93 | 557 | D | Tjarnqvist | 0.903 | 258 | 558 | S | Weiss | 0.903 | 412 | 559 | W | Belak | 0.903 | 144 | 560 | P | Ranger | 0.903 | 504 | 561 | M | Murray | 0.903 | 72 | 562 | J | Pitkanen | 0.903 | 719 | 563 | I | White | 0.903 | 503 | 564 | S | Fedorov | 0.902 | 441 | 565 | B | Stuart | 0.902 | 727 | 566 | M | Ryder | 0.902 | 480 | 567 | P | Cajanek | 0.902 | 388 | 568 | D | Maclean | 0.902 | 51 | 569 | A | Babchuk | 0.902 | 367 | 570 | J | Vasicek | 0.902 | 377 | 571 | A | Lilja | 0.902 | 295 | 572 | B | Boyes | 0.902 | 518 | 573 | J | Novotny | 0.902 | 325 | 574 | D | Tucker | 0.901 | 284 | 575 | E | Cole | 0.901 | 446 | 576 | A | Picard | 0.901 | 526 | 577 | T | Gilbert | 0.901 | 91 | 578 | J | Perrault | 0.901 | 101 | 579 | J | Roenick | 0.901 | 363 | 580 | J | Niinimaa | 0.901 | 252 | 581 | E | Malkin | 0.901 | 453 | 582 | D | Keith | 0.901 | 664 | 583 | K | Skrastins | 0.900 | 572 | 584 | H | Gill | 0.900 | 530 | 585 | M | Samuelsson | 0.900 | 210 | 586 | J | Smithson | 0.900 | 240 | 587 | B | Eager | 0.900 | 269 | 588 | M | Lapierre | 0.900 | 259 | 589 | M | Richards | 0.899 | 358 | 590 | D | Janik | 0.899 | 467 | 591 | D | Penner | 0.899 | 367 | 592 | R | Whitney | 0.899 | 524 | 593 | N | Boynton | 0.899 | 395 | 594 | P | Bergeron | 0.899 | 513 | 595 | D | Brown | 0.899 | 483 | 596 | D | Stafford | 0.898 | 256 | 597 | C | Drury | 0.898 | 413 | 598 | J | Ward | 0.898 | 354 | 599 | T | Fleischmann | 0.898 | 118 | 600 | T | Arnason | 0.898 | 412 | 601 | D | Boyle | 0.898 | 676 | 602 | A | Kotalik | 0.898 | 362 | 603 | S | Eminger | 0.898 | 606 | 604 | P | Prucha | 0.898 | 381 | 605 | G | Latendresse | 0.897 | 429 | 606 | T | Salmelainen | 0.897 | 224 | 607 | C | Kilger | 0.897 | 437 | 608 | D | Zubrus | 0.897 | 602 | 609 | F | Bouillon | 0.897 | 484 | 610 | B | Kane | 0.897 | 58 | 611 | Z | Michalek | 0.897 | 638 | 612 | G | Murray | 0.897 | 174 | 613 | A | Downey | 0.897 | 58 | 614 | T | Petersen | 0.897 | 319 | 615 | D | Larman | 0.897 | 58 | 616 | M | Knuble | 0.896 | 405 | 617 | F | Kuba | 0.896 | 588 | 618 | P | Bondra | 0.896 | 154 | 619 | J | Carter | 0.896 | 460 | 620 | T | Gleason | 0.895 | 411 | 621 | A | Johnson | 0.895 | 343 | 622 | S | Thornton | 0.895 | 295 | 623 | B | Willsie | 0.895 | 428 | 624 | S | Walker | 0.895 | 485 | 625 | D | Morris | 0.895 | 608 | 626 | D | Richmond | 0.895 | 133 | 627 | B | Allen | 0.894 | 635 | 628 | J | Leopold | 0.894 | 123 | 629 | N | Wallin | 0.894 | 473 | 630 | P | Sykora | 0.894 | 454 | 631 | M | Tjarnqvist | 0.894 | 208 | 632 | J | Cheechoo | 0.894 | 378 | 633 | M | Ryan | 0.894 | 132 | 634 | R | Abid | 0.894 | 66 | 635 | A | Roy | 0.894 | 113 | 636 | N | Kapanen | 0.894 | 386 | 637 | S | Gagne | 0.894 | 489 | 638 | J | Timonen | 0.893 | 122 | 639 | S | Kapanen | 0.893 | 477 | 640 | J | York | 0.893 | 318 | 641 | Z | Stortini | 0.893 | 84 | 642 | J | Pohl | 0.893 | 298 | 643 | J | Cullimore | 0.892 | 406 | 644 | M | Weaver | 0.891 | 229 | 645 | A | Brunette | 0.891 | 531 | 646 | B | Thomas | 0.891 | 128 | 647 | J | Reich | 0.891 | 128 | 648 | D | Clarkson | 0.891 | 64 | 649 | J | Gratton | 0.890 | 146 | 650 | R | Ivanans | 0.890 | 209 | 651 | J | Williams | 0.890 | 525 | 652 | D | Hatcher | 0.889 | 714 | 653 | M | Commodore | 0.889 | 612 | 654 | S | O'brien | 0.889 | 459 | 655 | D | Byfuglien | 0.889 | 54 | 656 | A | Ladd | 0.888 | 269 | 657 | M | Greene | 0.888 | 529 | 658 | B | Devereaux | 0.887 | 186 | 659 | J | Lupul | 0.886 | 482 | 660 | K | Calder | 0.885 | 444 | 661 | B | Bell | 0.885 | 234 | 662 | V | Lecavalier | 0.884 | 604 | 663 | S | Reinprecht | 0.883 | 274 | 664 | J | Kwiatkowski | 0.883 | 154 | 665 | M | York | 0.883 | 333 | 666 | S | Ozolinsh | 0.883 | 162 | 667 | P | Sharp | 0.882 | 485 | 668 | M | St. louis | 0.882 | 637 | 669 | V | Prospal | 0.881 | 599 | 670 | K | Pushkarev | 0.881 | 59 | 671 | G | Sanderson | 0.881 | 302 | 672 | D | Afanasenkov | 0.880 | 408 | 673 | J | Erskine | 0.879 | 248 | 674 | L | Nycholat | 0.879 | 132 | 675 | N | Zherdev | 0.879 | 387 | 676 | D | Seidenberg | 0.878 | 337 | 677 | E | Meloche | 0.877 | 57 | 678 | D | Westcott | 0.877 | 146 | 679 | J | Taffe | 0.876 | 89 | 680 | R | Umberger | 0.876 | 468 | 681 | A | Aucoin | 0.875 | 361 | 682 | O | Tverdovsky | 0.875 | 120 | 683 | D | Syvret | 0.875 | 120 | 684 | D | Gauthier | 0.875 | 279 | 685 | R | Jones | 0.874 | 365 | 686 | J | Mckee | 0.873 | 173 | 687 | P | Nedved | 0.873 | 212 | 688 | D | Scatchard | 0.870 | 230 | 689 | N | Ekman | 0.869 | 175 | 690 | A | Suglobov | 0.868 | 53 | 691 | D | Reid | 0.868 | 53 | 692 | M | St. pierre | 0.865 | 52 | 693 | K | Dallman | 0.860 | 235 | 694 | M | Rathje | 0.854 | 144 | 695 | K | Adams | 0.854 | 253 | 696 | E | Lisin | 0.841 | 113 | 697 | B | Berard | 0.840 | 75 | 698 | D | Carcillo | 0.826 | 86 |
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4 comments:
Is this all shots, or just even strength shots? You should probably just consider even strength shots.
just even strength shots?
I forgot to mention it at first, but it's in there now.
Terrific stuff. Do you plan to post shooting percentage numbers for while players were on the ice?
Also, I have a script somewhere that generates these numbers from the shift charts, which aren't as accurate of course, but they do go back a few years. If you post just the 5v5 numbers I'll compare and see how accurate it is.
Nice job doing a regression test, but what evidence do you have that the players themselves are more significant factors than the profile of opposition quality the players see?
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