August 22, 2007

Standings Predictions.

West
#NamePoints
1Ducks*108
2Canucks*101
3Avalanche100
4Red Wings*99
5Flames98
6Sharks98
7Predators96
8Wild91
9Stars89
10Blues83
11Blue Jackets70
12Blackhawks70
13Kings69
14Oilers66
15Coyotes57

East
#NamePoints
1Sabres*110
2Penguins*105
3Islanders101
4Rangers100
5Maple Leafs99
6Senators97
7Canadiens91
8Thrashers*91
9Devils90
10Bruins89
11Panthers89
12Hurricanes87
13Lightning81
14Flyers80
15Capitals78
Here are my current standing predictions. I tried my best to do it based on how different this year's team is compared to last years. Big changes in expected points are indicated by the arrows, for the most part team's point totals aren't expected to change much. I know a lot of people have predicted Boston to be the worst team in the east, but with their upgrade in net I'm doubt that will happen. Similarly, a lot of people see the Islanders as one of the worst teams in the east, but DiPietro is still there and while they have made a lot of changes the overall impact isn't very large.

I haven't put much if any opinion type information in the above tables. They are constructed completely based on the players that the teams have acquired and lost in the offseason.

I know there are a lot of problems with predictions (predictions are never very good), but I have constructed a NHL standings market. The goal is to get the most accurate prediction of the NHL standings. However in order to work I need a lot of people using it. More people involved means better the results.

NHL standings market is not really hard to use: simply take the number of points you are expecting a team to get this season and ask/sell a few points higher than that number (5 or so) and bid/buy for a few points lower. Someone will eventually take you up on that offer by buying your ask or selling to your bid. I've set up an initial set up based on my predictions. You don't have to ask/sell and bid/buy you can choose just one stock or do them all at once.

Many people may want to jump on the opportunity to bet against my "high" point expectation for the Islanders (I'm willing to buy at 100 points), so if you expect the Islanders to get fewer than 100 points this season simply ask for 100 on the Islanders.


5 comments:

Cam Fraser said...

Wow, you aren't giving the Oilers the love. Of course, neither is anyone else; personally, I'm far more worried by your prediction than the Hockey News'.

David Johnson said...

It is interesting to see you post these because I am working on mine now. Here are a few of my comments:

There is no way the Islanders finish that high.

Lost: Yashin, Blake, Kozlov, Poti, Hill, Aaron Asham, Randy Robitaille, 18 games of Smyth

Added: Comrie, Guerin, Fedotenko, Vasicek, Sutton, Jon Sim, Arron Johnson

Poti and Hill had the most ice time of anyone on the Islanders last season. Blake had 40 goals, Kozlov 25 and Yashin 18. That is a lot of offense and ice time to be able to replace on a team that barely made the playoffs. They have added some decent players as replacements but they really don't have any first line players or top pairing type defensemen. I just don't see how you can have them as the second best team in the conference and improving 13 points over last season (which is a large amount) in what is likely a tougher division now.

Most of your other eastern conference predictions I can accept and probably won't be all that different than mine.

As for the west, I think the Ducks will fall back more as it seems that most teams do so after going deep into the playoffs and they will have lost Penner as well as likely Niedermayer and Selanne and I don't think Bertuzzi and Schneider match up to those guys as replacements.

The Stars really baffle me because when you look at their roster they don't seem like they should be a great team and yet the past 2 seasons they have had 112 and 107 points. The core of the team will remain the same next year so I have a hard time seeing them drop to 91 points.

Also, the total points allocated in the west is only 1295 which is well below what it will be (the last 2 years points allocated has been 1374 and 1378) so I would probably be inclined to bump several teams point totals. Oilers, Kings and Dallas probably deserve a number of points more and I'd probably bump the Blues, Coyote's and Red Wings more too.

Your eastern conference total points are 1392 which are probably a bit high by ~20-25 points. I'd take 15 or so points off of the Islanders and make some minor tweaks to a few other teams.

JavaGeek said...

I just noticed I still had Yashin on the Islanders (didn't change his status after he was bought out).

I completely agree with the East-West analysis, but I think one should note two veteran goalies from the west have moved east and I'm curious what sort of impact this will have.

Logan said...

Given how many times division opponents play each other I'm wondering if it's even mathematically possible for four of the Southeast Division teams to finish in four of the bottom five spots in the conference.

If it's possible I would imagine it's still highly unlikely.

JavaGeek said...

What matters is the sum of the points. If a division is all equally bad they can fall quite low in the standings.

There are inter-division 80 games pr division, so about 176 free points per division.

My current prediction has the Southeast division getting a total of 426 points. If you subtract the 176 free points you get 250 points in the non-divisional games (there are 50 per team for a total of 250 games). So in non-divisional games the Southeast division would have to average 1 point per game in the non-divisional games (don't forget about OTLs). This is a perfectly reasonable (and quite likely scenario).

The Southeast division was tight last season and I expect that to continue.