March 4, 2007

OT Percentage

On February 22, 2007 8/12 games went to overtime. This represents the most overtimes in one day with the new NHL rules (2005-2006 and 2006-2007). Previous record was 6 recorded twice in 2005-2006 and three times this season. It probably won’t shock anyone, but as teams get closer to the end of the season they seem more motivated to go to overtime. In fact in the last 80 games there have been 34 overtime games. There was a similar (less pronounced) trend last season and I combined the two to make a relatively simple graph (shows percentage of overtimes in games 0-99, 100-199 etc.) I combined 2005-2006 and 2006-2007 season together to get more accurate results. The error bars represent 95% confidence intervals. There is the obvious increasing pattern here, but as you can see from the error bars very few conclusions on the exact nature of the relationship is hard to tell, there appears to be a “jump” date for the instance when overtimes increase (possibly two jumps) and by the end of the season there are 50% more overtimes than at the beginning. I did a regression to test the jump theory and the relationship was very good on this small set. Although there could be a trend this season for overtimes to go as high as 40%, which of course means 40% of games involve an extra point in the last 300 games.

1 comment:

David Johnson said...

Another 5 of 8 games went to OT again tonight.