South East Division

Below is a table that shows the odds that a given team will be in a certain position in the NHL. The chart is built using all the point rules (tie breakers) and also with the divisional champion rules (as you can see by the funny gap at the 3rd spot, due to the terrible South East). The table is coded to be darker for higher probabilities and thus it is extremely readable. It is sorted by expected points.

T 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 OTT 74% 19% 0% 4% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% N.J 13% 37% 1% 16% 15% 9% 4% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% PHI 5% 19% 1% 18% 20% 13% 10% 6% 5% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% PIT 5% 17% 0% 18% 19% 16% 10% 7% 4% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% MTL 3% 2% 0% 30% 19% 17% 11% 9% 5% 2% 2% 0% 1% 0% 0% BOS 0% 1% 0% 7% 11% 14% 20% 13% 12% 8% 6% 4% 3% 1% 1% NYI 0% 2% 0% 3% 6% 10% 12% 14% 13% 12% 8% 8% 6% 4% 3% BUF 0% 1% 0% 3% 5% 8% 15% 16% 12% 11% 9% 9% 7% 3% 3% CAR 0% 1% 44% 0% 0% 1% 2% 5% 9% 9% 8% 9% 6% 5% 2% NYR 0% 1% 0% 2% 4% 8% 9% 12% 15% 14% 11% 10% 8% 5% 2% WSH 0% 0% 19% 0% 0% 0% 2% 4% 7% 10% 11% 13% 13% 12% 8% ATL 0% 0% 16% 0% 0% 1% 2% 4% 6% 10% 13% 14% 14% 12% 7% FLA 0% 0% 16% 0% 0% 1% 2% 5% 7% 9% 14% 12% 11% 12% 10% TOR 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 2% 4% 6% 7% 9% 16% 25% 30% T.B 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 21% 35%

What is interesting, is that the entire South East division is predicted to have too few points to be in the top 8 spots, but due to the divisional champion have secured at least one playoff spot. There will likely only be 1 team from the South East and it is possible that the team who makes it doesn't have enough points to make the playoffs (they will still make the playoffs due to the divisional champion rules).

How bad is the South East?
Currently every team is -10 or worse in terms of overall goal differential and the entire division is a -85. Carolina, the current divisional leader, has struggled since mid November and likely wont be able to maintain the nice #1 spot. It looks as though Washington is the one team able to keep its head above water since their lack luster start and could in fact make the playoffs.

A lot will be determined in March (another divisional game month) when these team will play eachother a bunch of times. It's hard to say what will happen.

Either way 6th spot may just be the best place to be in the upcoming Eastern playoff race as a team who would normally qualify for 8th or 9th slides into the 3rd spot to play that lucky 6th place team. Of course this 3rd place South East divisional winner has had quite a bit of success in the past (Carolina and Tampa Bay cup winners). It just seems strange to give such terrible teams that advantage.