East

I always have a hard time following the East keeping track of the teams and players (30 teams are a lot of teams to keep track of), but these standing show quite nicely how these teams have done early on. Penguins and Thrashers are in the playoffs, New Jersey and Carolina are out. Rangers are in a bubble chased by Washington (we’ll see how long that lasts…) and New York Islanders (who would’ve thought)

# Name GP EPTS WD MP 1 Thrashers 8 142 98% 100% 2 Senators 7 122 57% 98% 3 Penguins 7 107 71% 91% 4 Sabres 8 106 19% 90% 5 Canadiens 7 105 18% 88% 6 Maple Leafs 9 96 6% 78% 7 Lightning 8 94 2% 73% 8 Rangers 8 85 14% 55% 9 Capitals 7 78 0% 37% 10 Islanders 8 77 8% 38% 11 Devils 8 73 6% 28% 12 Hurricanes 9 63 0% 10% 13 Panthers 9 59 0% 7% 14 Bruins 7 52 0% 5% 15 Flyers 8 41 0% 1%

Northeast

# Name GP EPTS WD MP 1 Senators 7 122 57% 98% 2 Sabres 8 106 19% 90% 3 Canadiens 7 105 18% 88% 4 Maple Leafs 9 96 6% 78% 5 Bruins 7 52 0% 5%

The one division I can follow because it is over half Canadian. Senators are still expected to win the division despite their low initial point totals. This is another division that could bring 4 teams into the playoffs. Certainly the Maples Leafs can’t miss the playoffs two years in a row. And the Bruin’s appear to have lost all ability to succeed after losing Thornton and will wind up in the bottom of this group. The Bruin’s may have made a mistake signing a goaltender long term without accurate data.

Atlantic

# Name GP EPTS WD MP 1 Penguins 7 107 71% 91% 2 Rangers 8 85 14% 55% 3 Islanders 8 77 8% 38% 4 Devils 8 73 6% 28% 5 Flyers 8 41 0% 1%

With Malkin and Crosby playing for the Penguins they appear to have enough scoring. The penguins also seem to have come to their sense and use Fluery as their number one goaltender to keep the goals down. If Lundqvist can play like he did last year the New York Rangers should give the Penguins a tough battle to keep this spot. As I mentioned in the above it’s interesting to see the poorly managed Islanders playing well, we’ll see how long it lasts.

Southeast

# Name GP EPTS WD MP 1 Thrashers 8 142 98% 100% 2 Lightning 8 94 2% 73% 3 Capitals 7 78 0% 37% 4 Hurricanes 9 63 0% 10% 5 Panthers 9 59 0% 7%

The division I find boring simply because all the teams are so bad (Yet they find a way to win the Stanley Cup and crash and burn the next year). Carolina went from best to worst, not because they can’t score, but because they can’t stop goals from going in. The Thrashers seem to continue to roll they’re on last year with excellent goaltending and a ton of scoring they should have no trouble doing well and likely winning the division. Washington has done well (largely due to Johnson and not Kolzig). They’ve kept their goals against down and can score enough goals to be competitive in the easiest division in hockey. Carolina dumped their goaltender Gerber in favor of their playoff hero Ward and it hasn’t worked out too well for them. Ward didn’t win the cup because of his stellar performances, but because the team got a lot of goals for their goaltender. Florida hasn’t gotten it together, their goaltending has been average (Auld) and below average (Belfour) and they cannot score goals.

I should note: (all based on a model with 10,000 iterations).
WD - Probability of winning division
MP - Probability of making the playoffs
EPTS - Expected points based on a statistical prediction