Blocked Shots

In regards to James Mirtle's blocked shots post I have a list of player's blocked shots with their ice times.
I have also completed a regression of blocked shots vs. ice time
Forwards: 1.2 * EV hours + 7.0 * PK hours = blocked shots
Defense: 3.8 * EV hours + 11.5 * PK hours = blocked shots
Regression was completed using 2006-2007 data.
Did the regression in such a way that the constant variable was no significant.

columns:
ev = even strength ice time in hours
sh = short handed ice time in hours
P = D: defense, F: forward

N I Lastname blocked sh ev P 1 A Volchenkov 79 1.3 5.1 D 2 M Komisarek 69 1.0 5.9 D 3 J Smith 61 0.9 4.8 D 4 G Zanon 60 1.4 4.8 D 5 M Eaton 50 1.4 5.1 D 6 B Clark 50 1.0 5.0 D 7 B Lukowich 48 0.9 4.5 D 8 B Witt 47 1.1 4.7 D 9 R Blake 46 1.3 4.6 D 10 N Havelid 46 1.2 5.2 D 11 R Hamrlik 44 0.9 5.7 D 12 L Kukkonen 44 0.6 4.6 D 13 C Phillips 43 1.4 5.6 D 14 K Klee 40 0.8 5.0 D 15 G Exelby 39 0.9 4.8 D 16 S Hannan 39 1.2 5.5 D 17 P Kubina 39 1.4 4.8 D 18 F Kuba 38 1.1 5.5 D 19 H Gill 38 1.9 5.4 D 20 A Foote 38 1.6 5.6 D 21 K Ballard 37 1.0 5.2 D 22 D Tarnstrom 36 0.9 4.6 D 23 T Lydman 36 1.2 4.6 D 24 K Timonen 36 1.1 5.1 D 25 P Ranger 36 1.1 6.5 D 26 P Boucher 35 0.9 5.3 D 27 R Martinek 35 1.0 4.8 D 28 A Ward 35 0.7 4.8 D 29 T Gleason 34 1.0 5.1 D 30 R Scuderi 34 1.0 5.2 D 31 B Orpik 34 0.3 5.1 D 32 F Tyutin 34 0.8 5.4 D 33 B Jackman 33 1.0 4.8 D 34 M Ohlund 33 0.8 4.9 D 35 G Wesley 33 1.2 4.3 D 36 A Alberts 33 0.9 5.4 D 37 B Hedican 33 0.7 5.2 D 38 S Gonchar 32 1.2 5.5 D 39 J Liles 32 0.0 4.2 D 40 A Greene 32 1.0 5.4 D 41 H Tallinder 32 1.4 5.0 D 42 J Modry 31 0.8 4.6 D 43 M Rozsival 31 1.0 5.7 D 44 A Wozniewski 31 1.0 4.2 D 45 D Keith 30 1.4 6.2 D 46 N Schultz 30 1.3 4.9 D 47 D Girardi 30 0.9 5.4 D 48 B Sopel 29 1.1 4.3 D 49 R Salei 28 1.1 6.4 D 50 B Salvador 28 0.9 3.7 D 51 A Markov 28 1.0 5.6 D 52 A Miller 28 0.9 4.2 D 53 J Johnson 27 0.7 5.6 D 54 B Mezei 27 0.9 4.1 D 55 M Vlasic 27 1.3 6.0 D 56 B Seabrook 27 1.0 4.9 D 57 K Johnsson 27 1.2 4.9 D 58 A Lilja 27 1.0 4.4 D 59 W Redden 27 0.8 4.9 D 60 I White 27 0.4 5.4 D 61 K Mclaren 27 0.9 5.6 D 62 A Meszaros 27 0.8 4.8 D 63 C Pronger 26 1.7 6.3 D 64 W Mitchell 26 1.3 5.2 D 65 J Finger 26 0.3 3.8 D 66 B Allen 26 0.9 4.7 D 67 R Suter 26 0.8 4.9 D 68 B Gervais 26 0.6 3.8 D 69 R Regehr 25 1.3 4.9 D 70 R Klesla 25 0.9 5.4 D 71 D Morris 25 0.9 4.8 D 72 B Mccabe 25 1.0 3.8 D 73 S O'brien 25 0.8 6.1 D 74 T Enstrom 25 0.8 4.5 D 75 M Jurcina 25 1.1 4.2 D 76 K Rachunek 25 0.4 4.3 D 77 L Visnovsky 24 0.3 5.1 D 78 J Bouwmeester 24 1.5 6.8 D 79 S Staios 24 1.1 6.0 D 80 F Kaberle 24 0.4 5.1 D 81 C Rivet 24 1.0 4.8 D 82 M Commodore 23 1.0 4.1 D 83 J Mckee 23 0.4 2.3 D 84 C Ehrhoff 23 0.6 4.5 D 85 N Lidstrom 23 1.6 5.7 D 86 T Poti 23 0.8 3.6 D 87 N Paetsch 23 0.2 3.9 D 88 V Vishnevski 23 0.7 4.6 D 89 P Mara 23 0.6 4.1 D 90 A Sutton 23 0.7 3.6 D 91 D Seidenberg 22 0.3 3.2 D 92 T Gilbert 22 0.5 5.7 D 93 K Russell 22 0.1 3.4 D 94 Z Chara 22 0.9 5.4 D 95 S Robidas 20 0.9 4.8 D 96 M Norstrom 20 0.9 3.7 D 97 N Kronvall 20 0.6 3.7 D 98 D Hamhuis 20 1.3 5.2 D 99 A Eriksson 20 0.5 3.1 D 100 A Zhitnik 20 0.7 4.6 D 101 T Daley 20 0.9 5.1 D 102 J Hejda 19 1.2 4.7 D 103 M Jones 19 0.6 4.3 D 104 T Kaberle 19 0.4 5.9 D 105 L Smid 19 0.7 3.1 D 106 J Wisniewski 19 0.5 4.8 D 107 D Murray 19 0.4 3.0 D 108 C Sarich 19 1.1 4.7 D 109 B Coburn 19 0.5 5.2 D 110 R Jones 19 0.8 3.8 D 111 G De%20vries 19 1.0 4.9 D 112 R Getzlaf 18 0.5 4.3 F 113 F Beauchemin 18 1.5 6.6 D 114 B Stuart 18 1.0 4.9 D 115 G Campbell 18 0.9 3.4 F 116 D Sydor 18 0.2 4.1 D 117 J Pavelski 18 0.4 3.3 F 118 T Mitchell 18 0.7 3.7 F 119 M Skoula 18 1.1 5.2 D 120 S Morrisonn 18 1.3 4.6 D 121 C Drury 18 1.1 4.4 F 122 D Wideman 18 0.5 4.2 D 123 M Van%20ryn 18 0.8 4.5 D 124 K Huskins 17 0.7 5.4 D 125 A Aucoin 17 0.9 5.5 D 126 D Steckel 17 1.4 2.8 F 127 C Backman 17 0.4 4.1 D 128 N Boynton 17 0.7 4.2 D 129 D Grebeshkov 17 0.4 3.7 D 130 M Carle 17 0.2 3.9 D 131 R Johnson 17 1.0 2.5 F 132 L Krajicek 17 0.2 2.0 D 133 B Burns 17 1.1 5.4 D 134 M Parrish 17 0.3 3.4 F 135 M Zidlicky 17 0.2 4.8 D 136 S Zubov 17 1.0 5.5 D 137 D Roy 17 0.8 4.2 F 138 N Wallin 17 0.6 2.9 D 139 P Martin 17 1.1 4.7 D 140 J Oduya 17 0.8 5.1 D 141 M Grier 17 1.1 3.8 F 142 B Rafalski 17 0.8 5.5 D 143 J Lehtinen 17 0.8 4.2 F 144 D Phaneuf 16 1.1 5.8 D 145 M Greene 16 0.7 2.9 D 146 A Burish 16 0.8 3.0 F 147 J Halpern 16 0.9 3.9 F 148 J Ward 16 0.8 3.6 F 149 A Ovechkin 16 0.0 5.2 F 150 B Campbell 16 1.0 5.3 D 151 M Staal 16 0.6 4.9 D 152 M Stuart 16 0.3 3.4 D 153 S Hnidy 15 0.6 4.4 D 154 C Murphy 15 0.1 3.5 D 155 R Hainsey 15 0.4 5.1 D 156 M Streit 15 0.2 4.2 D 157 R Whitney 15 0.6 4.0 D 158 S Wagner 15 0.5 3.8 D 159 R Kesler 15 1.0 3.8 F 160 B Guite 15 0.7 2.5 F 161 K Foster 15 0.4 3.6 D 162 B Pothier 15 0.4 5.0 D 163 C Campoli 15 0.2 3.8 D 164 M Cullen 15 0.3 4.0 F 165 R Brind'amour 15 1.2 5.0 F 166 B Shanahan 15 1.0 4.0 F 167 N Antropov 15 1.2 4.5 F 168 A Ference 15 0.6 3.9 D 169 M Mottau 15 0.4 3.2 D 170 J Carter 15 0.4 4.0 F 171 M Malik 15 0.6 2.9 D 172 P Brisebois 15 0.2 4.0 D 173 M Weaver 15 0.5 2.9 D 174 S Ozolinsh 15 0.0 2.4 D 175 A Kopitar 14 0.7 4.5 F 176 M Handzus 14 1.1 3.6 F 177 M Lombardi 14 1.1 4.0 F 178 E Brewer 14 0.7 3.7 D 179 J Staal 14 1.2 4.1 F 180 S Crosby 14 0.2 5.0 F 181 M Lundin 14 0.3 4.2 D 182 J Madden 14 1.1 4.4 F 183 R Umberger 14 0.7 4.0 F 184 S Kapanen 14 0.6 3.0 F 185 M Sundin 14 0.5 4.8 F 186 S O'donnell 13 1.5 4.8 D 187 R Zednik 13 0.0 4.2 F 188 S Yelle 13 1.2 2.2 F 189 J Williams 13 0.9 4.7 F 190 K Sauer 13 0.8 4.6 D 191 M Tjarnqvist 13 0.9 2.8 F 192 E Jovanovski 13 0.3 4.8 D 193 S Begin 13 0.7 2.7 F 194 F Bouillon 13 0.6 3.4 D 195 R Warrener 13 0.5 2.7 D 196 B Radivojevic 13 0.2 4.3 F 197 S Mccarthy 13 0.2 2.6 D 198 J Schultz 13 1.0 3.4 D 199 J Spacek 13 0.5 2.5 D 200 C Higgins 13 0.3 4.4 F 201 G Metropolit 13 0.7 3.5 F 202 R Park 13 0.8 2.4 F 203 D Brown 12 0.8 4.2 F 204 J Slater 12 0.3 2.5 F 205 J Mcclement 12 0.7 3.3 F 206 M Reasoner 12 1.1 3.3 F 207 A Hall 12 1.1 2.8 F 208 T Kostopoulos 12 0.7 2.9 F 209 K Chipchura 12 0.6 2.5 F 210 C Kilger 12 0.7 3.5 F 211 J Stoll 12 1.0 3.9 F 212 J Vandermeer 12 0.7 4.1 D 213 C Kelly 12 1.3 3.5 F 214 A Hilbert 12 0.5 3.2 F 215 A Sekera 12 0.2 2.4 D 216 C Adams 12 0.8 2.7 F 217 Z Parise 12 0.1 4.7 F 218 D Hatcher 12 0.6 2.5 D 219 M Fisher 12 0.9 4.2 F 220 R Dvorak 11 0.9 4.0 F 221 N Backstrom 11 0.0 4.1 F 222 B Laich 11 0.9 2.8 F 223 Z Michalek 11 0.5 3.2 D 224 R Niedermayer 11 1.2 3.9 F 225 K Brodziak 11 0.9 3.0 F 226 D Heatley 11 0.1 5.1 F 227 S Veilleux 11 0.7 3.4 F 228 M Nilson 11 0.9 2.4 F 229 M Richards 11 1.0 4.2 F 230 R Fedotenko 11 0.3 4.0 F 231 P Axelsson 11 0.9 3.6 F 232 O Jokinen 10 0.1 5.5 F 233 J Smithson 10 0.9 3.4 F 234 J Erskine 10 0.6 2.3 D 235 T Letowski 10 0.6 2.2 F 236 M Popovic 10 0.0 2.1 D 237 E Perrin 10 0.7 3.9 F 238 A Rourke 10 0.0 0.6 D 239 J Pitkanen 10 0.3 2.3 D 240 A Burrows 10 0.9 2.8 F 241 S Reinprecht 10 0.1 3.6 F 242 M Niskanen 10 0.2 4.4 D 243 T Pyatt 10 0.0 3.5 F 244 R Holik 10 0.3 3.8 F 245 M Bergeron 10 0.1 2.5 D 246 J Strudwick 10 0.2 2.4 D 247 N Dawes 10 0.1 3.0 F 248 T White 10 0.9 4.4 F 249 D Krejci 10 0.1 2.4 F 250 T Hunter 10 0.6 3.4 F 251 R Fitzpatrick 10 0.2 2.0 D 252 D Kalinin 10 0.3 1.7 D 253 M Moulson 9 0.1 1.2 F 254 P O'sullivan 9 1.0 3.7 F 255 V Peltonen 9 0.8 4.6 F 256 C Conroy 9 0.7 4.3 F 257 K Klein 9 0.1 1.0 D 258 J Ortmeyer 9 0.8 3.3 F 259 B Gordon 9 1.4 3.3 F 260 P Dupuis 9 0.7 3.5 F 261 M Hanzal 9 0.3 3.7 F 262 N Horton 9 0.3 5.0 F 263 R Torres 9 0.1 4.9 F 264 S Horcoff 9 1.0 5.0 F 265 K Bieksa 9 0.6 3.0 D 266 R Bourque 9 0.7 3.0 F 267 M Koivu 9 1.1 4.4 F 268 A Steen 9 1.1 4.4 F 269 P Datsyuk 9 0.6 4.7 F 270 P Nummelin 9 0.0 3.1 D 271 R Whitney 9 0.2 4.3 F 272 B Betts 9 1.0 3.0 F 273 S Hartnell 9 0.0 3.9 F 274 D Janik 9 0.0 1.5 D 275 J Hlavac 9 0.0 5.0 F 276 V Prospal 9 0.0 5.2 F 277 J Corvo 9 0.0 3.4 D 278 J Hamilton 9 0.0 2.6 F 279 P Schaefer 9 0.4 4.2 F 280 B Morrison 9 0.4 3.4 F 281 B Devereaux 9 1.0 3.4 F 282 C Kobasew 9 0.7 4.2 F 283 T Connolly 9 0.7 2.7 F 284 S Brookbank 9 0.4 2.8 D 285 J Zeiler 8 0.1 2.3 F 286 C Kunitz 8 0.4 4.8 F 287 A Miller 8 0.2 3.0 F 288 D Moss 8 0.4 2.7 F 289 D Legwand 8 0.7 3.9 F 290 M Malhotra 8 0.8 4.0 F 291 R Nash 8 0.7 4.3 F 292 M Pettinger 8 1.1 3.5 F 293 M Green 8 0.0 4.6 D 294 E Staal 8 0.1 5.1 F 295 K Tkachuk 8 0.0 3.6 F 296 R Vrbata 8 0.5 4.0 F 297 S Weiss 8 0.4 4.6 F 298 B Mclean 8 0.8 2.3 F 299 R Malone 8 0.6 4.4 F 300 J Gorges 8 0.2 1.2 D 301 B Ritchie 8 0.7 2.3 F 302 M Zigomanis 8 1.0 2.9 F 303 M Stajan 8 1.1 4.5 F 304 B Smolinski 8 0.6 3.8 F 305 S Bernier 8 0.0 3.6 F 306 D Fritsche 8 0.1 3.3 F 307 R Lang 8 0.2 4.5 F 308 M Naslund 8 0.0 4.0 F 309 M Goc 8 0.6 1.9 F 310 J Thornton 8 0.3 5.2 F 311 P Demitra 8 0.4 2.3 F 312 D Cleary 8 0.9 3.7 F 313 S Gagner 8 0.0 3.7 F 314 R Bonk 8 0.2 4.0 F 315 J Arnott 8 0.1 4.3 F 316 D Alfredsson 8 1.0 4.7 F 317 A Vermette 8 1.1 3.1 F 318 W Walz 8 0.3 2.2 F 319 J Novotny 8 0.8 3.4 F 320 B Dubinsky 8 0.0 3.5 F 321 S Salo 8 0.1 1.1 D 322 J Lupul 8 0.6 4.5 F 323 M Knuble 8 0.3 4.2 F 324 M Sturm 8 0.5 3.9 F 325 B Berard 8 0.1 1.3 D 326 S Pahlsson 8 1.2 3.8 F 327 T Marchant 7 1.1 4.0 F 328 V Koistinen 7 0.0 2.7 D 329 J Mayers 7 0.9 2.9 F 330 N Kapanen 7 0.1 3.1 F 331 M Talbot 7 1.0 3.1 F 332 P Stastny 7 0.5 4.2 F 333 J Leopold 7 0.2 1.7 D 334 A Ponikarovsky 7 0.2 4.1 F 335 S Koivu 7 0.3 4.3 F 336 M Dandenault 7 0.5 3.3 D 337 P Sharp 7 1.0 3.9 F 338 A Zyuzin 7 0.1 1.3 D 339 M Michalek 7 0.3 3.7 F 340 D Setoguchi 7 0.0 2.3 F 341 D Weight 7 0.1 3.4 F 342 M Ouellet 7 0.0 3.8 F 343 I Laperriere 7 0.5 3.2 F 344 J Cheechoo 7 0.1 4.3 F 345 P Rissmiller 7 0.7 2.9 F 346 B Rolston 7 0.9 4.3 F 347 E Belanger 7 0.9 3.9 F 348 K Draper 7 1.0 4.0 F 349 K Maltby 7 0.8 3.2 F 350 B Lebda 7 0.1 4.3 D 351 J Pominville 7 0.9 3.7 F 352 P Prucha 7 0.0 3.6 F 353 J Jagr 7 0.1 5.2 F 354 M Schneider 6 0.0 1.9 D 355 J Stumpel 6 0.5 4.6 F 356 D Vyborny 6 0.8 3.9 F 357 C Larose 6 0.8 4.6 F 358 L Stempniak 6 0.4 3.5 F 359 D Booth 6 0.1 3.4 F 360 A Hemsky 6 0.0 4.8 F 361 C Armstrong 6 0.8 2.5 F 362 T Plekanec 6 0.4 4.0 F 363 K Skrastins 6 0.3 1.4 D 364 A Cogliano 6 0.4 3.7 F 365 E Malkin 6 0.0 4.7 F 366 T Ruutu 6 0.1 4.4 F 367 J Roenick 6 0.1 3.3 F 368 M Johansson 6 0.1 2.6 D 369 M Cooke 6 0.7 3.2 F 370 W Smith 6 0.7 3.1 F 371 A Brunette 6 0.0 3.9 F 372 C Brown 6 0.4 1.3 F 373 V Filppula 6 0.5 3.9 F 374 K Adams 6 0.9 2.1 F 375 D Penner 6 0.0 4.5 F 376 C Schubert 6 0.4 2.2 D 377 D Winnik 6 0.3 2.7 F 378 D Drake 6 0.5 1.4 F 379 D Stafford 6 0.0 3.4 F 380 T Zajac 6 0.3 4.6 F 381 J Pandolfo 6 1.0 4.2 F 382 P Elias 6 0.5 4.2 F 383 S Gomez 6 0.1 4.8 F 384 P Gaustad 6 0.5 3.4 F 385 S Brylin 6 0.7 3.4 F 386 M Satan 6 0.2 3.8 F 387 M Sillinger 6 0.7 3.7 F 388 D Tanabe 6 0.0 1.3 D 389 M St. Louis 6 0.7 5.6 F

Where have all the OTs gone?

If anyone can answer this simple question it would be great.

In 2003-2004 there were 47 overtimes in 209 games.
In 2005-2006 there were 44 overtimes in 210 games.
In 2006-2007 there were 46 overtimes in 210 games.
or 870 in 3690 games through 2003-2007 or 23.5%
In 2007-2008 there were 29 overtimes in 209 games. (13.9%)
This is a 40% reduction in overtimes!

Standard deviation = 6.

I noticed this in the first 100 games, but figured it could be an anomaly until it was repeated in the next 100 games. What is the NHL doing to prevent overtimes? Have team's incentives changed? Do teams see overtime as a bad thing because it gives the opponents a free point [more than last season]?

Something worth noting:
- scoring in the third period is the same as last year.

Corsi Numbers

Corsi numbers have popped up a few times in the last week. Due to the fact no one else was seeing if these numbers were relevant, I though I'd give it a go:

Corsi Number
Corsi number is the number of shots directed towards the net while the player is on the ice. The number can be broken down into whose net the shots are directed towards (their own net (-) and their opponent's net (+)) similar to the plus minus statistic. The hope of course is that the Corsi plus minus would correlate well with the regular plus minus, but because the numbers will be 16x larger than plus minus numbers they'll be about 4x more accurate than the plus minus numbers.

Team Regression:
If this statistic is really useful in predicting offense (or winning) it should correlate well with scoring, whether it be on a team by team basis or player by player. So I first look at the team using last season's results: Goals = 0.09*shots + 0.02*missed (where 0.02 is +/- 0.04, aka completely insignificant). First off, even if missed shots were significant, one missed shot is still only worth about 1/5 of an actual goal, so it would take 50 missed shots to make 1 goal.

Individual level:
The first question: are missed shots with regular shots a better predictor of offense than just regular shots? A. this is a resounding no, while missed shots don't seem to hurt the results too significantly they don't seem to add anything, except more variability to the model.

Are missed shots significant?
Again a regression with shots and missed shots, at this point in the season, are not a significant variable in the model. What was interesting is that missed shots were more important in a model that used "expected goals" as opposed to just shots.

The problem with Missed Shots:
The simplest most basic problem with the Corsi index is the fact that missed shots are by definition worse than a shot on goal. The only hope Corsi has, is that players who miss the net a lot are likely hitting the net a lot, and in the absence of a decent sample size this is a useful method as a missed shot is better than no shot at all.

Missed shot percentage (missed shots/(missed shots + regular shots)
The higher a player's missed shot percentage is the worse the player is (if a player is only hitting the net 10% of the time, they'll be sent back to the AHL or worse).

The problem is, that in a model where missed shots are included the missed shot percentage becomes a significant liability. That is to say that unless the missed shots are accompanied with actual shots they're worthless (this makes sense).

Missed Shots
Missed shots are a complicated variable that can be both a good thing and a bad thing. A team that chooses to shoot more shots haphazardly will likely struggle to score compare to a team that focuses on getting the puck on target. Missed shots can have any range depending on the score sheet recording a shot that missed by a few inches is quite different from one that misses by 3 feet.

Blocked Shots
Blocked shots are even more complicated than missed shots and similarly do not help predict offense better than regular shots on their own.

Conclusion:
I'll stick with expected goals. That being said, I've posted the Corsi index on my statistic site for those who think it is useful.