Adjusted bookie standings

I like "bookie" predictions due to the fact that they are backed by cash instead of just hot air. That being said, even bookie predictions have systemic problems or even systemic biases. Some can be fixed others cannot. Certain teams attract money from betters and other simply cannot. Due to the fact that very few people cheer for Nashville it may in fact suffer some devaluation.

However, some predictions are just stupid. For example, the Atlantic division last season was a joke, not only was Philadelphia the worst team by a far margin. Overall the division was below average or average. This season Pittsburgh doesn't get to play Philadelphia 8 times to stack their stats as Philadelphia will quite possibly make the playoffs. The bookies from the above prediction state that the Atlantic division will go from below average to the best division by a large margin in a matter of one season.

So, what I did is I adjusted the bookie's standings so that all the divisions performed the same this season as last season.

When I look at those standings I have a hard time finding fault with anything on there [except the four Northwestern team's making the playoff and only one central team and all four Northeastern teams making it].

I find it interesting either way...

Bigger Nets

"The NHL first discussed the idea of larger nets two years ago, when players and league executives met to debate ways of increasing scoring and opening up the game."

"The topic was revisited briefly in June when general managers met in Ottawa." [Luongo vows to quit over bigger nets].

How much would 1" change in net size (on all sides)? So what would happen if we moved the left post by 1" and the right post by 1" and increased the hight by 1"?

Since the NHL records how many goalposts (and crossbars) there are, we know how often the puck hits the 2 and 3/8th inch posts.

Last season the puck hit the frame 1480 times. So moving the post by 1" would mean taking the shots that hit the first 1" from the inside and counting those as goals and the pucks that hit the other 1 and 3/8th inch would still be posts (plus all the new posts) [simple logic, "works well enough"]. Essentially this would convert 1/(2+3/8) of the frame hits into goals or about 623 new goals per year for every 1" change in net dimensions. So it would take a 2" all around the net change to increase scoring per game by 1 goal.

Of course this is assuming goalies and teams don't adjust to the new system. Goalies would attempt to cut off shots even more (quite an adjustment for a goalie like Luongo).

My own formatted play-by-play

**UPDATED**
L.A @ ANA 2007-09-13
ANA @ L.A 2007-09-15
PHX @ ANA 2007-09-16
ATL @ STL 2007-09-16
WSH @ CAR 2007-09-16
NSH @ CBJ 2007-09-16
FLA @ CGY 2007-09-16
COL @ PHX 2007-09-17
ANA @ VAN 2007-09-17
PIT @ MTL 2007-09-17
FLA @ EDM 2007-09-17
STL @ DAL 2007-09-18
S.J @ L.A 2007-09-18
CHI @ CBJ 2007-09-18
PIT @ MTL 2007-09-18
TOR @ EDM 2007-09-18
S.J @ ANA 2007-09-19
L.A @ COL 2007-09-19
CGY @ VAN 2007-09-19
CBJ @ CHI 2007-09-19
DAL @ T.B 2007-09-19
COL @ DAL 2007-09-20
PHX @ TOR 2007-09-20
WSH @ OTT 2007-09-20
ATL @ NSH 2007-09-20
EDM @ VAN 2007-09-20
FLA @ CHI 2007-09-20
MIN @ DET 2007-09-20
N.J @ NYR 2007-09-21
NSH @ CAR 2007-09-21
ANA @ S.J 2007-09-21
CBJ @ BUF 2007-09-21
MIN @ CHI 2007-09-21
NYI @ MTL 2007-09-21
PIT @ DET 2007-09-21
TOR @ BOS 2007-09-22
CAR @ NSH 2007-09-22
DAL @ PHX 2007-09-22
OTT @ MTL 2007-09-22
STL @ ATL 2007-09-22
WSH @ T.B 2007-09-22
PHI @ NYR 2007-09-22
VAN @ S.J 2007-09-22
EDM @ CGY 2007-09-22
DET @ PIT 2007-09-22



Ok, this is a work in progress. Basically I want something that has the option to hide certain events and show other ones. If you click on SHOT, BLOCK etc. it will hide or show those events. This is really nice as you can break the play-by-play into just shots (what I care most about), or just face-offs. In the long run, this is just a great way to see if I have recorded the data correctly and where any problems are.

Also, I've color-coded the shots based on the likelihood of them going in. I wasn't sure if this would work, but it really gives you an idea of the flow of the game. Bright red = very good shot. Black goal = bad goal (low probability of going in).

I plan on publishing these (possibly live if I can figure out how to write a program that will download and parse them live). They are more in tune with the old style.

Note: the code runs slow in IE7 (not sure how it works in IE5.x or IE6).

I will likely attach a game summary part onto the top, which includes the goalie's save percentages and who scored and got assists. And a few other details. I also find the information a little overwhelming in this format so I'll be moving it around to see if it works better.

Nice CSS formatting was done by Chris Waycott.

Preseason Goaltending

N lastname SQN S 1 ANDERSON 1.000 55 2 LUONGO 0.951 51 3 JOHNSON 0.939 31 4 HUET 0.928 31 5 AUBIN 0.927 33 6 KEETLEY 0.924 34 7 VOKOUN 0.920 34 8 HILLER 0.918 48 9 BRYZGALOV 0.913 85 10 DENIS 0.913 38 11 MASON 0.912 53 12 PAVELEC 0.910 37 13 RINNE 0.896 44 14 AEBISCHER 0.894 44 15 PRICE 0.892 43 16 ROLOSON 0.885 59 17 MASON 0.883 41 18 LALIME 0.868 52 19 GARON 0.862 45 20 THOMAS 0.862 36 21 BERNIER 0.852 37 22 KHABIBULIN 0.844 32 23 GRAHAME 0.833 41 24 TELLQVIST 0.828 42 25 BUDAJ 0.820 49 26 PATZOLD 0.810 32 27 FLEURY 0.808 54 28 BACKSTROM 0.807 41 29 KIPRUSOFF 0.792 43 30 TURCO 0.688 35

I'll update this list "regularly". Only includes games that the NHL published information for (obviously).

There are a significant number of shot from the wrong side of the ice in the NHL data I've assumed any shot >115' feet was a mistake and should have been recorded on the other half of the ice. Hopefully the NHL gets that sorted out before the beginning of the season.

Is Cloutier finished? (3-10, 3-18). He was able to stop all three SO opportunities.

For the most part I have the new NHL format in my database.

Adjusted Shot Quality Neutral Save Percentage

Alan Ryder has found systemic bias in the shot quality data leaving the results showing problems with the data. It is bet summarized by Ryder himself:

I have been worried that there is a systemic bias in the data. Random errors don’t concern me. They even out over large volumes of data. I seriously doubt that the RTSS scorers bias the shot data in favour of the home team. But I do think that it is a serious possibility that the scoring in certain rinks has a bias towards longer or shorter shots, the most dominant factor in a shot quality model. And I set out to investigate that possibility [Shot Quality Product Recall].

I did a rather simple way to fix the problem. I did a regression on SQ results for all games based on two factors: team shot quality and stadium shot quality or [RTSS shot quality]. This simply calculate how much off the RTSS scores are from the standard [how the team normally performs]. Preferably we want no effect from RTSS scores so all those variables should be 0. I found a rather long list of biases, most of them small, including: Calgary, St. Louis, Columbus, Chicago, Phoenix, New Jersey, New York Rangers, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Carolina, Washington. I have deliberately over chosen, so that list likely includes teams which are simply randomly different as opposed to actual bias, but it doesn't matter. Ideally, I would want to incorporate these issues into the model directly, but the shot quality model is time consuming to build and once you get the variables you have to go through the hassle of calculating the percentages for all 7000 shots.

Simple adjustment on shot quality and it's effect on goaltending:

N lastname newSQN oldSQN Shots 1 BACKSTROM 0.925 0.926 1027 2 VOKOUN 0.920 0.921 1299 3 DIPIETRO 0.920 0.922 1917 4 THIBAULT 0.920 0.921 570 5 MASON 0.919 0.921 1244 6 HUET 0.919 0.919 1280 7 GIGUERE 0.918 0.918 1490 8 LUONGO 0.918 0.919 2169 9 LEHTONEN 0.915 0.915 2075 10 ROLOSON 0.914 0.914 1979 11 BRODEUR 0.914 0.913 2182 12 KIPRUSOFF 0.914 0.912 2190 13 NABOKOV 0.914 0.915 1227 14 KOLZIG 0.913 0.919 1771 15 KHABIBULIN 0.913 0.914 1668 16 TURCO 0.912 0.912 1554 17 BURKE 0.912 0.913 687 18 FERNANDEZ 0.912 0.913 1154 19 AEBISCHER 0.911 0.910 929 20 LEGACE 0.911 0.919 1177 21 HASEK 0.911 0.912 1309 22 LUNDQVIST 0.910 0.921 1927 23 EMERY 0.910 0.911 1691 24 DUNHAM 0.910 0.910 540 25 NIITTYMAKI 0.908 0.913 1562 26 GRAHAME 0.908 0.912 702 27 MILLER 0.907 0.899 1886 28 SMITH 0.906 0.909 510 29 FLEURY 0.904 0.905 1955 30 BELFOUR 0.903 0.904 1550 31 NORRENA 0.903 0.908 1420 32 BUDAJ 0.903 0.903 1499 33 BRYZGALOV 0.902 0.903 668 34 THOMAS 0.902 0.904 1985 35 GERBER 0.900 0.901 784 36 AULD 0.899 0.899 729 37 GARON 0.899 0.901 849 38 JOSEPH 0.899 0.904 1481 39 TOIVONEN 0.899 0.897 502 40 THEODORE 0.898 0.898 870 41 WARD 0.898 0.906 1625 42 TOSKALA 0.897 0.899 915 43 LECLAIRE 0.894 0.900 629 44 JOHNSON 0.894 0.900 894 45 BIRON 0.894 0.899 509 46 SANFORD 0.893 0.901 707 47 RAYCROFT 0.891 0.892 1939 48 BIRON 0.887 0.886 533 49 TELLQVIST 0.887 0.892 780 50 HOLMQVIST 0.886 0.890 1134 51 DENIS 0.884 0.884 1068 52 CLOUTIER 0.878 0.880 608

newSQN = adjusted for RTSS bias
oldSQN = no adjustment for RTSS bias.

I'm curious what the RTSS turnover is. That is to say, I wonder if the bias last year will be the same this year.

NHL Changes Data Format

Along with the Jersey changes it appears the NHL wanted to make their reporting of games a little more "user friendly". Hopefully they've managed to make sure all the files are the same, although I suspect they'll still have the French versions.

Positives:
+ There is ON ICE information for every event!
+ Nice break down of shots per situation.
+ Moved goalie info to Event Summary
+ Missed shots have distances.
+ Every event has a zone for where the action occurred.
+ Cloutier seems to be himself [3-10] [couldn't help myself]
+ Break down icetime by situation [NHL publishes 4v3 time and 5v3 time].

Negative:
- This could take weeks to figure out formatting to get information into my database
- They disabled left clicks for who knows what reason.
- The files are HUGE.
- Play by Play includes the header every so often, but doesn't explain why [looks like it's for com. break]
- Still don't include the X-Y cords. for shots.

Overall I think I can work with these, formatting looks simple and consistent.

Travel Schedule

N long_name Trips KM KM/Trip 1 Chicago Blackhawks 63 63440 1007 2 New York Islanders 63 39587 628 3 New York Rangers 63 43336 688 4 Ottawa Senators 63 48097 763 5 Toronto Maple Leafs 63 49275 782 6 Pittsburgh Penguins 62 42485 685 7 Buffalo Sabres 62 43241 697 8 Atlanta Thrashers 62 60166 970 9 Tampa Bay Lightning 62 63217 1020 10 St. Louis Blues 61 65725 1077 11 Detroit Red Wings 61 59510 976 12 Columbus Blue Jackets 61 67414 1105 13 Philadelphia Flyers 61 42989 705 14 New Jersey Devils 60 38815 647 15 Florida Panthers 60 61878 1031 16 Washington Capitals 60 40934 682 17 Colorado Avalanche 59 75872 1286 18 Boston Bruins 59 42769 725 19 Montreal Canadiens 59 44683 757 20 Vancouver Canucks 58 87440 1508 21 Phoenix Coyotes 58 72693 1253 22 Los Angeles Kings 58 69915 1205 23 Carolina Hurricanes 58 44879 774 24 Nashville Predators 57 63775 1119 25 San Jose Sharks 57 68869 1208 26 Dallas Stars 57 67604 1186 27 Anaheim Ducks 57 66521 1167 28 Edmonton Oilers 56 83036 1483 29 Minnesota Wild 55 67821 1233 30 Calgary Flames 55 73180 1331

Here's the details on this season's schedule. Trips = number of days the team will be on a plane traveling between cities for an NHL game. KM = total kilometers to travel over the course of the upcoming season. KM/trip is just the average trip distance.

You can see the NHL does a pretty good job balancing the schedule. Also, there is a significant relationship between average trip length number of days on a plane.

Nashville's Unfair Advantage.

N Date Team 1 Oct 4 COL 2 Oct 6 DAL 3 Oct 13 CGY 4 Oct 27 FLA 5 Nov 4 CHI 6 Nov 10 CBJ 7 Nov 15 CHI 8 Nov 17 STL 9 Nov 22 DET 10 Nov 24 MIN 11 Nov 29 OTT 12 Dec 1 MTL 13 Dec 6 VAN 14 Dec 8 ANA 15 Dec 10 DET 16 Dec 13 COL 17 Dec 22 L.A 18 Dec 29 S.J 19 Jan 3 EDM 20 Jan 12 CBJ 21 Feb 9 S.J 22 Feb 14 CHI 23 Feb 23 DAL 24 Mar 20 DET

When I go through the NHL schedule for the first time there are two things I look at first: distance traveled and how many back to back games the team plays. I also look at back to back games from the perspective of the team who gets to play the tired team.

Typically a team sees about 12 back to back games and plays against 12 teams who played the day before. Nashville lucked out this season. They are scheduled to play 24 games (30% of the season) against tired teams [listed to the left] and play only 10 back to back games themselves.

Generally I argue that these games have a cost of about 5% in terms of winning percentage or 0.05 wins. So Nashville loses 0.50 games in the 10 games they play back to back and gains 1.2 wins in the 24 games they play against a back to back team. In essence the NHL has given Nashville 1.5 extra points. (this is worth approximately $700,000). Of course this isn't huge, but essentially Nashville has a 1.5 point advantage before the season starts.

It's interesting, but the majority of these games are in the first half of the season, possibly to get the team an early lead and to attract attention to the team. For example, Nashville plays tired teams for a whole week: Dec 6 to Dec 13.

Last season the NHL was very good at making sure back to back games were scheduled fairly and the largest difference was 5 (Col, S.J, NYI)

Mirtle Poll Standings.

James Mirtle posted a nice poll, which asked people to pick the teams that are expected to make the playoffs. I simply created a nice graphic for the predicted standings based on this poll. This graphic was made when there was 330 votes.

Player Save Percentage

I'm a big believer in "shot quality" as many readers have likely noticed. If players have an impact on the quality of shots a goalie sees, then they should affect how many pucks the goalie stops. If a goalie generally stops 90% of shots then a player who makes shots twice as easy to save should have a save percentage of 95%. Of course players have a much smaller impact of save percentage than goalies do.

In order to see if players can affect save percentage I did a season vs. season regression: I check if the players who out performed in 2005-2006 continued to outperform in 2008-2007. If there is a significant relationship between the two seasons then obviously players impact save percentage.

The regression does come out significant, which agrees with the theory that players can affect shot quality.
The regression is reasonably simple:
Difference in team's save percentage in 2006 vs. 2007 = D
Player's Save Percentage in 2006 = Save%
So:
Player's Save Percentage in 2006 = 0.7 + 0.235*Save% + 0.618*D
Basically the above equation is a regression towards the mean: it takes extreme values and brings them closer to the average (0.920).

Note: this data only includes even strength shots.

However, this data is worthless for predicting how a player will do next year due to the large amounts of variability. For example Crosby had a n excellent save percentage this season of 0.930, this system says he'll likely perform at 0.919 given identical goaltending as last season, however he could easily do as poorly as 0.890 with bad luck or as well as 0.950 with good luck. A 2% difference in save percentage on 600 shots works out to about 12 goals over the course of a season. So this large range of possible save percentages for players can have a large impact of a player's plus-minus, often due to just luck.

Results
Any way most people will want to see the results

N I Lastname Save% Shots 1 T Green 0.988 85 2 A Semenov 0.982 109 3 S Bates 0.972 216 4 P Sejna 0.968 93 5 J Krog 0.967 122 6 M Hartigan 0.966 58 7 C Kobasew 0.964 274 8 S Parker 0.961 51 9 B Isbister 0.960 126 10 A Peters 0.958 96 11 C Thorburn 0.958 143 12 A Edler 0.957 92 13 B Mcgrattan 0.956 90 14 A Perezhogin 0.955 313 15 J Langfeld 0.955 67 16 R Fitzpatrick 0.954 307 17 R Petrovicky 0.954 109 18 R Martinek 0.954 325 19 J Ortmeyer 0.954 173 20 R Callahan 0.952 63 21 M Nilson 0.951 286 22 T Preissing 0.950 443 23 S Nichol 0.950 260 24 M Chouinard 0.950 139 25 J Hudler 0.949 256 26 D Mccarty 0.949 78 27 C Schubert 0.948 424 28 C Orr 0.947 133 29 P Harrold 0.947 57 30 A Hutchinson 0.947 150 31 S Mccarthy 0.947 187 32 A Mair 0.946 298 33 C Janssen 0.946 93 34 J Vigier 0.946 297 35 S Salo 0.946 445 36 P Bouchard 0.946 461 37 J Slater 0.945 330 38 M Hossa 0.945 293 39 J Dowd 0.945 200 40 J Jokinen 0.945 361 41 E Boulton 0.944 126 42 J Cowan 0.944 233 43 S Veilleux 0.944 374 44 K Huselius 0.944 425 45 R Regehr 0.943 633 46 M Sillinger 0.943 509 47 G Laraque 0.943 315 48 F Kaberle 0.943 140 49 A Wozniewski 0.943 87 50 J Green 0.942 226 51 T White 0.942 467 52 C Macarthur 0.942 86 53 B Rolston 0.942 481 54 S Hartnell 0.941 358 55 C Neil 0.941 425 56 P Gaustad 0.941 237 57 C Simon 0.940 318 58 M Modano 0.940 301 59 J Leclair 0.940 117 60 B Ritchie 0.940 266 61 J Tambellini 0.940 83 62 T Vanek 0.940 531 63 A Ference 0.939 577 64 H Sedin 0.939 494 65 M Malik 0.939 477 66 S Bernier 0.939 310 67 A Brooks 0.938 65 68 J Franzen 0.938 308 69 B Lebda 0.938 370 70 G Zanon 0.938 418 71 R Getzlaf 0.938 337 72 M Johnson 0.937 510 73 J Lehtinen 0.937 366 74 R Hamrlik 0.937 636 75 J Klemm 0.937 190 76 B Guerin 0.937 427 77 J Zeiler 0.937 79 78 B Mezei 0.937 300 79 N Alexeev 0.936 391 80 D Roy 0.936 500 81 H Zetterberg 0.936 327 82 V Fiddler 0.936 389 83 D Markov 0.936 420 84 C Pronger 0.936 482 85 C Kelly 0.936 466 86 G Exelby 0.936 419 87 D Vyborny 0.935 480 88 C Perry 0.935 325 89 T Linden 0.935 339 90 K Carney 0.935 462 91 D Legwand 0.935 615 92 K Foster 0.935 369 93 N Lidstrom 0.935 553 94 D Heatley 0.935 643 95 D Hamel 0.935 153 96 T Santala 0.935 107 97 P Stefan 0.935 168 98 D Sedin 0.934 488 99 D Boyd 0.934 61 100 A Greene 0.934 122 101 B Muir 0.934 137 102 A Kastsitsyn 0.934 137 103 A Asham 0.934 350 104 B Allen 0.934 182 105 B Rafalski 0.934 743 106 O Tollefsen 0.934 393 107 G Metropolit 0.934 332 108 D Moore 0.934 346 109 O Saprykin 0.934 376 110 M Lombardi 0.933 480 111 J Pandolfo 0.933 615 112 V Filppula 0.933 255 113 D Paille 0.933 150 114 M Pouliot 0.933 225 115 B Witt 0.933 703 116 M Rozsival 0.933 538 117 M Afinogenov 0.933 388 118 A Radulov 0.933 313 119 B Holik 0.933 506 120 M Giordano 0.933 208 121 L Eriksson 0.933 282 122 S Hnidy 0.933 460 123 A Nasreddine 0.933 252 124 D Alfredsson 0.932 548 125 E Lindros 0.932 222 126 R Fedotenko 0.932 503 127 K Tkachuk 0.932 487 128 C Chelios 0.932 383 129 B Gervais 0.932 324 130 R Zednik 0.932 265 131 J Schultz 0.932 265 132 M Parrish 0.932 337 133 J Friesen 0.932 336 134 N Welch 0.932 146 135 J Modry 0.931 423 136 S Montador 0.931 350 137 P Schaefer 0.931 480 138 M Skoula 0.931 669 139 A Volchenkov 0.931 566 140 K Timonen 0.931 624 141 P Kessel 0.931 434 142 A Yashin 0.931 405 143 J Hoggan 0.931 159 144 P Datsyuk 0.931 419 145 R Warrener 0.931 433 146 B Orpik 0.931 519 147 T Poti 0.931 634 148 B Betts 0.931 389 149 M Erat 0.930 488 150 S Mellanby 0.930 330 151 H Tallinder 0.930 416 152 P Marleau 0.930 516 153 R Hollweg 0.930 314 154 G De vries 0.930 699 155 S Crosby 0.930 556 156 A Markov 0.930 641 157 J Ruutu 0.930 298 158 P Thoresen 0.929 326 159 M Stuart 0.929 85 160 J Staal 0.929 354 161 J Madden 0.929 566 162 T Kostopoulos 0.929 382 163 M Rycroft 0.929 240 164 V Kozlov 0.929 564 165 T Hunter 0.929 437 166 M Jones 0.929 338 167 S Weber 0.929 689 168 B Gionta 0.929 351 169 A Rourke 0.929 70 170 D Cleary 0.928 348 171 T Plekanec 0.928 501 172 T Amonte 0.928 417 173 M Walker 0.928 264 174 M Ohlund 0.928 624 175 M Fisher 0.928 402 176 T Zajac 0.928 471 177 M Straka 0.928 429 178 M Naslund 0.928 498 179 D Fritsche 0.928 332 180 D Kasparaitis 0.928 166 181 P Kariya 0.928 650 182 M Gaborik 0.928 318 183 M Zidlicky 0.928 608 184 J Pavelski 0.928 221 185 M Svatos 0.927 303 186 N Pratt 0.927 468 187 A Hilbert 0.927 399 188 M Mowers 0.927 440 189 A Steen 0.927 467 190 M Schneider 0.927 439 191 B Burns 0.927 466 192 J Woywitka 0.927 178 193 T Pyatt 0.927 397 194 A Zyuzin 0.927 246 195 P Mara 0.927 697 196 J Sim 0.927 355 197 C Phillips 0.927 641 198 J Blake 0.927 586 199 B Coburn 0.927 327 200 P Axelsson 0.927 422 201 R Lang 0.926 435 202 R Bonk 0.926 462 203 T Selanne 0.926 461 204 S Gomez 0.926 447 205 D Langkow 0.926 501 206 J Arnott 0.926 460 207 S Brylin 0.926 527 208 R Globke 0.926 54 209 M Jurcina 0.926 472 210 R Whitney 0.926 619 211 J Oduya 0.926 497 212 S Upshall 0.926 188 213 M Bradley 0.925 308 214 C Rivet 0.925 629 215 T Daley 0.925 495 216 C Sarich 0.925 548 217 T Numminen 0.925 668 218 L Kukkonen 0.925 454 219 J Spezza 0.925 493 220 D Kalinin 0.925 706 221 S Hill 0.925 706 222 A Eriksson 0.925 479 223 S Avery 0.925 479 224 S Yelle 0.925 306 225 F Beauchemin 0.925 585 226 B Mclean 0.925 411 227 D Backes 0.925 212 228 B May 0.925 106 229 J Finger 0.925 106 230 C Kunitz 0.924 450 231 N Schultz 0.924 622 232 I Kovalchuk 0.924 569 233 R Suter 0.924 567 234 Y Stastny 0.924 79 235 B Young 0.924 105 236 E Belanger 0.924 472 237 K Johnsson 0.924 590 238 D Hale 0.924 236 239 D Sydor 0.924 485 240 J Spacek 0.924 432 241 M Green 0.924 432 242 S Staios 0.924 471 243 J Shelley 0.924 157 244 K Mclaren 0.924 510 245 M Recchi 0.923 549 246 J Heward 0.923 483 247 W Smith 0.923 261 248 R Johnson 0.923 313 249 C White 0.923 625 250 R Malone 0.923 364 251 A Tanguay 0.923 559 252 M Goc 0.923 286 253 B Jones 0.923 52 254 M Methot 0.923 117 255 D Briere 0.923 649 256 A Foote 0.923 493 257 O Vaananen 0.923 492 258 J Jacques 0.923 142 259 B Gordon 0.923 413 260 R Polak 0.922 129 261 B Lukowich 0.922 605 262 M Holmqvist 0.922 296 263 B Seabrook 0.922 579 264 W Walz 0.922 373 265 K Rachunek 0.922 463 266 D Hordichuk 0.922 128 267 P Rissmiller 0.922 320 268 M Comrie 0.922 371 269 J Liles 0.922 370 270 P Martin 0.922 727 271 N Baumgartner 0.922 51 272 J Iginla 0.922 561 273 C Macdonald 0.922 102 274 K Barch 0.922 51 275 M Michalek 0.921 433 276 A Carter 0.921 331 277 S Donovan 0.921 496 278 W Mitchell 0.921 483 279 M Ouellet 0.921 381 280 C Adams 0.921 292 281 K Bieksa 0.921 660 282 P Tenkrat 0.921 368 283 B Shanahan 0.921 406 284 M Komisarek 0.921 685 285 B Richardson 0.921 342 286 J Stoll 0.921 266 287 D Weight 0.921 456 288 M Dandenault 0.921 456 289 S Sullivan 0.921 354 290 K Huskins 0.921 177 291 Z Parise 0.921 543 292 C Conroy 0.921 467 293 D Phaneuf 0.921 719 294 M Havlat 0.921 340 295 C Brown 0.921 340 296 S O'donnell 0.921 554 297 K Stewart 0.921 151 298 A Zhitnik 0.920 704 299 V Nieminen 0.920 176 300 T Holmstrom 0.920 314 301 M Carle 0.920 427 302 P Forsberg 0.920 339 303 P Demitra 0.920 477 304 M Barnaby 0.920 138 305 E Rasmussen 0.920 276 306 A Meszaros 0.920 701 307 D Hamhuis 0.920 688 308 V Vishnevski 0.920 500 309 S Rucchin 0.920 300 310 R Craig 0.920 324 311 D Brashear 0.920 274 312 J Chimera 0.920 498 313 J Gorges 0.920 336 314 D Girardi 0.920 199 315 S Hannan 0.920 609 316 A Sutton 0.920 410 317 F Meyer iv 0.920 410 318 S Zubov 0.919 546 319 G Parros 0.919 62 320 A Burrows 0.919 285 321 J Lundqvist 0.919 161 322 C Larose 0.919 297 323 B Jackman 0.919 506 324 V Kozlov 0.919 543 325 M Satan 0.919 543 326 B Richards 0.919 617 327 B Sutherby 0.919 407 328 L Smid 0.919 629 329 S Thornton 0.919 148 330 P Turgeon 0.919 74 331 M Koivu 0.919 443 332 S Ruzicka 0.919 209 333 J Kolnik 0.918 319 334 J Corvo 0.918 515 335 B Laich 0.918 331 336 B Larsen 0.918 331 337 D Boogaard 0.918 98 338 C Barker 0.918 245 339 M Nylander 0.918 502 340 R Dvorak 0.918 502 341 T Lydman 0.918 514 342 L Stempniak 0.918 428 343 M Gelinas 0.918 379 344 N Hagman 0.918 391 345 E Brewer 0.918 733 346 W Primeau 0.918 464 347 F Modin 0.918 415 348 R Shannon 0.918 244 349 M Hossa 0.918 561 350 A Svitov 0.918 353 351 K Draper 0.918 426 352 J Langenbrunner 0.918 511 353 R Davison 0.918 73 354 M Smith 0.918 158 355 J Hecht 0.918 571 356 B Radivojevic 0.918 425 357 J Stumpel 0.918 437 358 C Ehrhoff 0.918 461 359 A Miettinen 0.917 315 360 S Pahlsson 0.917 436 361 C Backman 0.917 436 362 J Jagr 0.917 557 363 C Gratton 0.917 448 364 S Robidas 0.917 387 365 P Kubina 0.917 387 366 J Williams 0.917 387 367 J Rivers 0.917 181 368 J Thornton 0.917 482 369 T Kaberle 0.917 554 370 P Elias 0.917 445 371 S Morrisonn 0.917 637 372 B Campbell 0.917 661 373 P Boucher 0.917 504 374 M Hejduk 0.917 492 375 R Robitaille 0.917 468 376 R Park 0.917 324 377 D Wideman 0.917 468 378 G Platt 0.917 108 379 N Dempsey 0.917 72 380 J Nieuwendyk 0.917 72 381 J Dipenta 0.917 360 382 M Lehtonen 0.917 96 383 T Roche 0.917 252 384 O Jokinen 0.917 611 385 I Laperriere 0.916 419 386 T Moen 0.916 419 387 Y Perreault 0.916 383 388 M Bergeron 0.916 490 389 B Bochenski 0.916 227 390 A Alberts 0.916 669 391 B Mccabe 0.916 657 392 K Wellwood 0.916 238 393 A Vermette 0.916 464 394 Z Chara 0.916 737 395 M Cooke 0.916 451 396 J Hamilton 0.916 344 397 T Pock 0.916 249 398 L Richardson 0.916 83 399 G Campbell 0.916 308 400 P O'sullivan 0.916 225 401 N Paetsch 0.916 367 402 R Smyth 0.915 473 403 A Mcdonald 0.915 473 404 K Beech 0.915 307 405 M Cammalleri 0.915 519 406 G Wesley 0.915 401 407 R Klesla 0.915 613 408 R Nash 0.915 471 409 R Potulny 0.915 153 410 R Hainsey 0.915 588 411 M Ribeiro 0.915 341 412 B Clymer 0.915 423 413 B Salvador 0.915 505 414 P Nummelin 0.915 387 415 S Samsonov 0.915 387 416 D Tanabe 0.915 398 417 C Colaiacovo 0.915 316 418 J Dumont 0.914 538 419 A Karlsson 0.914 187 420 E Christensen 0.914 292 421 J O'neill 0.914 362 422 M Cullen 0.914 478 423 R Torres 0.914 478 424 O Nolan 0.914 407 425 B Winchester 0.914 232 426 B Clark 0.914 637 427 K Maltby 0.914 359 428 N Havelid 0.913 682 429 N Horton 0.913 520 430 S Barnes 0.913 439 431 D Arkhipov 0.913 439 432 M Van ryn 0.913 566 433 R Salei 0.913 658 434 V Peltonen 0.913 404 435 T Fedoruk 0.913 288 436 J Lundmark 0.913 357 437 R Olesz 0.913 380 438 R Blake 0.913 541 439 S Gonchar 0.913 633 440 J Hejda 0.913 310 441 M Zigomanis 0.913 344 442 D Moss 0.913 172 443 F Sjostrom 0.913 401 444 P Fischer 0.913 126 445 D Armstrong 0.913 378 446 M Malhotra 0.912 444 447 R Niedermayer 0.912 432 448 M Stajan 0.912 477 449 A Miller 0.912 636 450 A Semin 0.912 488 451 A Ward 0.912 692 452 P Stastny 0.912 476 453 R Kesler 0.912 238 454 M Vlasic 0.912 578 455 J Bouwmeester 0.912 747 456 L Nagy 0.912 464 457 K Klee 0.912 645 458 B Smolinski 0.912 430 459 E Perrin 0.912 509 460 A Laaksonen 0.912 147 461 J Klepis 0.912 147 462 J Tootoo 0.912 260 463 M Grier 0.912 452 464 M Norstrom 0.911 621 465 J Pominville 0.911 564 466 D Hinote 0.911 203 467 J Sakic 0.911 575 468 C Clark 0.911 518 469 M Eaton 0.911 259 470 C Stillman 0.911 281 471 D Drake 0.911 303 472 M Talbot 0.911 370 473 J Fahey 0.911 56 474 S Chistov 0.911 224 475 Y Tremblay 0.911 56 476 P Dupuis 0.911 425 477 M Lapointe 0.911 369 478 B Hedican 0.910 402 479 A Hall 0.910 301 480 J Wisniewski 0.910 301 481 S Ott 0.910 78 482 E Jovanovski 0.910 399 483 J Smith 0.910 676 484 J Vandermeer 0.910 299 485 G Roberts 0.910 454 486 R Jackman 0.910 155 487 A Hemsky 0.910 354 488 S Niedermayer 0.910 575 489 B Morrow 0.910 210 490 M Peca 0.910 221 491 L Krajicek 0.909 464 492 N Antropov 0.909 298 493 M Bell 0.909 352 494 E Staal 0.909 593 495 A Frolov 0.909 549 496 P Eaves 0.909 417 497 M Savard 0.909 647 498 R Scuderi 0.909 515 499 S Souray 0.909 679 500 J Mcclement 0.909 416 501 T Taylor 0.909 175 502 M Rupp 0.909 175 503 F Pisani 0.908 459 504 M Roy 0.908 98 505 T Ruutu 0.908 381 506 N Kronvall 0.908 413 507 L Visnovsky 0.908 554 508 D Mcammond 0.908 357 509 A Ponikarovsky 0.907 400 510 B Guite 0.907 162 511 N Tarnasky 0.907 205 512 W Redden 0.907 550 513 R Vrbata 0.907 408 514 J Bulis 0.907 397 515 C Higgins 0.907 397 516 J Melichar 0.907 515 517 B Morrison 0.907 460 518 D Murray 0.906 128 519 F Tyutin 0.906 458 520 P Brisebois 0.906 213 521 B Pothier 0.906 596 522 T Bertuzzi 0.906 85 523 T Letowski 0.906 244 524 M Handzus 0.906 53 525 D Booth 0.906 180 526 R Clowe 0.906 254 527 K Sauer 0.905 327 528 S Begin 0.905 274 529 C Campoli 0.905 274 530 A Kopitar 0.905 474 531 S Horcoff 0.905 558 532 B Sopel 0.905 431 533 M Sturm 0.905 473 534 S Koivu 0.905 515 535 K Ballard 0.905 536 536 J Halpern 0.905 399 537 J Immonen 0.905 63 538 W Wolski 0.905 451 539 B Battaglia 0.905 409 540 T Marchant 0.905 283 541 R Brind'amour 0.905 524 542 M Reasoner 0.905 377 543 M Rucinsky 0.904 293 544 C Armstrong 0.904 449 545 R Bourque 0.904 261 546 J Mayers 0.904 480 547 A Ovechkin 0.904 697 548 M Blunden 0.904 52 549 A Kovalev 0.904 499 550 S Doan 0.904 478 551 M Pettinger 0.904 363 552 G Brule 0.903 321 553 G Murray 0.903 445 554 M Streit 0.903 362 555 M Sundin 0.903 434 556 M Lashoff 0.903 93 557 D Tjarnqvist 0.903 258 558 S Weiss 0.903 412 559 W Belak 0.903 144 560 P Ranger 0.903 504 561 M Murray 0.903 72 562 J Pitkanen 0.903 719 563 I White 0.903 503 564 S Fedorov 0.902 441 565 B Stuart 0.902 727 566 M Ryder 0.902 480 567 P Cajanek 0.902 388 568 D Maclean 0.902 51 569 A Babchuk 0.902 367 570 J Vasicek 0.902 377 571 A Lilja 0.902 295 572 B Boyes 0.902 518 573 J Novotny 0.902 325 574 D Tucker 0.901 284 575 E Cole 0.901 446 576 A Picard 0.901 526 577 T Gilbert 0.901 91 578 J Perrault 0.901 101 579 J Roenick 0.901 363 580 J Niinimaa 0.901 252 581 E Malkin 0.901 453 582 D Keith 0.901 664 583 K Skrastins 0.900 572 584 H Gill 0.900 530 585 M Samuelsson 0.900 210 586 J Smithson 0.900 240 587 B Eager 0.900 269 588 M Lapierre 0.900 259 589 M Richards 0.899 358 590 D Janik 0.899 467 591 D Penner 0.899 367 592 R Whitney 0.899 524 593 N Boynton 0.899 395 594 P Bergeron 0.899 513 595 D Brown 0.899 483 596 D Stafford 0.898 256 597 C Drury 0.898 413 598 J Ward 0.898 354 599 T Fleischmann 0.898 118 600 T Arnason 0.898 412 601 D Boyle 0.898 676 602 A Kotalik 0.898 362 603 S Eminger 0.898 606 604 P Prucha 0.898 381 605 G Latendresse 0.897 429 606 T Salmelainen 0.897 224 607 C Kilger 0.897 437 608 D Zubrus 0.897 602 609 F Bouillon 0.897 484 610 B Kane 0.897 58 611 Z Michalek 0.897 638 612 G Murray 0.897 174 613 A Downey 0.897 58 614 T Petersen 0.897 319 615 D Larman 0.897 58 616 M Knuble 0.896 405 617 F Kuba 0.896 588 618 P Bondra 0.896 154 619 J Carter 0.896 460 620 T Gleason 0.895 411 621 A Johnson 0.895 343 622 S Thornton 0.895 295 623 B Willsie 0.895 428 624 S Walker 0.895 485 625 D Morris 0.895 608 626 D Richmond 0.895 133 627 B Allen 0.894 635 628 J Leopold 0.894 123 629 N Wallin 0.894 473 630 P Sykora 0.894 454 631 M Tjarnqvist 0.894 208 632 J Cheechoo 0.894 378 633 M Ryan 0.894 132 634 R Abid 0.894 66 635 A Roy 0.894 113 636 N Kapanen 0.894 386 637 S Gagne 0.894 489 638 J Timonen 0.893 122 639 S Kapanen 0.893 477 640 J York 0.893 318 641 Z Stortini 0.893 84 642 J Pohl 0.893 298 643 J Cullimore 0.892 406 644 M Weaver 0.891 229 645 A Brunette 0.891 531 646 B Thomas 0.891 128 647 J Reich 0.891 128 648 D Clarkson 0.891 64 649 J Gratton 0.890 146 650 R Ivanans 0.890 209 651 J Williams 0.890 525 652 D Hatcher 0.889 714 653 M Commodore 0.889 612 654 S O'brien 0.889 459 655 D Byfuglien 0.889 54 656 A Ladd 0.888 269 657 M Greene 0.888 529 658 B Devereaux 0.887 186 659 J Lupul 0.886 482 660 K Calder 0.885 444 661 B Bell 0.885 234 662 V Lecavalier 0.884 604 663 S Reinprecht 0.883 274 664 J Kwiatkowski 0.883 154 665 M York 0.883 333 666 S Ozolinsh 0.883 162 667 P Sharp 0.882 485 668 M St. louis 0.882 637 669 V Prospal 0.881 599 670 K Pushkarev 0.881 59 671 G Sanderson 0.881 302 672 D Afanasenkov 0.880 408 673 J Erskine 0.879 248 674 L Nycholat 0.879 132 675 N Zherdev 0.879 387 676 D Seidenberg 0.878 337 677 E Meloche 0.877 57 678 D Westcott 0.877 146 679 J Taffe 0.876 89 680 R Umberger 0.876 468 681 A Aucoin 0.875 361 682 O Tverdovsky 0.875 120 683 D Syvret 0.875 120 684 D Gauthier 0.875 279 685 R Jones 0.874 365 686 J Mckee 0.873 173 687 P Nedved 0.873 212 688 D Scatchard 0.870 230 689 N Ekman 0.869 175 690 A Suglobov 0.868 53 691 D Reid 0.868 53 692 M St. pierre 0.865 52 693 K Dallman 0.860 235 694 M Rathje 0.854 144 695 K Adams 0.854 253 696 E Lisin 0.841 113 697 B Berard 0.840 75 698 D Carcillo 0.826 86

Southeastern Division Goaltending

The Falconer from Do The Thrashers Have Large Talons?. Requested I do a little summary on the goaltenders from the Southeast division. I figured I would post it here for all to see.

Atlanta - Lehtonen

Save %: 0.912, Career Save %: 0.911 Shot Quality Neutral Save %: 0.915 Wins: 34, Wins excluding SOW: 27 Career Wins: 58, Career Games: 110 #2 Pick overall in 2002. Lehtonen has had a great start to what should be a long career. He's young and has a lot of time to improve. Bob Hartley destroyed Lehtonen's confidence by replacing him with Hedberg in game #2 after he allowed 4 goals on almost 40 shots. He was put back into the fire for game #3 allowing 7 goals on 35 shots. I expect him to rebound in the coming season, but I never understood what Hartley was thinking.

Carolina - Ward

Save %: 0.897, Career Save %: 0.892 Shot Quality Neutral Save %: 0.906 Wins: 30, Wins excluding SOW: 30 Career Wins: 44, Career Games: 88 #25 overall in 2002. The only reason Ward become Carolina's starting goaltender was his amazing playoff run. However he has never really impressed me as an outstanding goalie. Ward was able to squeak in a 30 win season, but was limited to only 60 games.

Florida - Vokoun

Save %: 0.920, Career Save %: 0.913 Shot Quality Neutral Save %: 0.921 Wins: 27, Wins excluding SOW: 25 Career Wins: 161, Career Games: 384 Mason played well enough in Nashville to steal his spot leaving Vokoun, a very good goaltender, free for the taking. Many have commented that if Luongo couldn't get Florida into the playoffs, then why should a weaker goalie be able to? Vokoun has missed a lot of important hockey games due to injuries and most importantly the playoffs two years in a row. Florida almost made the playoffs last season, Vokoun should be able to put them over the edge.

Tampa Bay - Denis & Holmqvist

Denis Save %: 0.883, Career Save %: 0.903 Shot Quality Neutral Save %: 0.884 Wins: 17, Wins excluding SOW: 13 Career Wins: 111, Career Games: 338 I commented once that both of Tampa's goaltenders were terrible and was criticized and told it's their defense that's terrible and the goalies are doing the best with what they got. Personally I felt Denis was a big reason Columbus slipped into mediocrity for so many years. Denis made the record for most losses for a goalie two seasons in a row, granted he played the most minutes and saw the most shots. Holmqvist Save %: 0.893, Career Save %: 0.882 Shot Quality Neutral Save %: 0.890 Wins: 27, Wins excluding SOW: 21 Career Wins: 27, Career Games: 52 "Lanky Holmqvist has the size to blot out the majority of the net from shooters and also has good technical ability and reflexes" (The Sports Forecaster 2001-02, p. 101). The one thing I will note of Holmqvist, despite his terrible stats he was able to play close to 50% hockey. Holmqvist doesn't even have a full season of experience to this point and the experience he does have is less than impressive. I don't see all that much positive in his game. John Tortorella choose to use Holmqvist over Denis in the playoffs last season.

Washington - Kolzig

Save %: 0.910, Career Save %: 0.927 Shot Quality Neutral Save %: 0.919 Wins: 22, Wins excluding SOW: 21 Career Wins: 276, Career Games: 657 Kolizg is getting older, but still may be the most important piece of a terrible Washington team. His skills are wasted on such a terrible team. Word on the street is that Washington is getting better, although not much. I think enough people know enough about Kolzig, there isn't much to add.

It would appear that there are three teams with excellent goaltenders (Florida, Atlanta and Washington - note these teams all have terrible defense) and two team's with terrible goaltenders (Tampa Bay and Carolina) with terrible defense as well, but they both have extreme offense to compensate with.