Updated Prediction Model
I've done quite a bit of work on my prediction algorithm's and I am extremely happy with the results: With less than dozen games per team so far, I have a pretty good idea of the probabilities of a team making the playoffs. Although my model is designed to predict individual games and not outcomes over the course of a season it seems to do a reasonable job at doing so anyway.Results
I used my algorithm to review the 2009 - 2010 results and grouped teams into 3 categories:
Top 10, Middle 10 and Bottom 10 after 154 games were played.
Top 10: 8.4 teams in this group were expected to be in the playoffs, 8 made it (Dallas & NYR didn't make it)
Middle 10: 6.1 were expected to make the playoffs in this group. 5 actually did.
Bottom 10: 1.5 were expected to make the playoffs in this group. 3 made it: Detroit 35%, Boston 32%, Nashville 7%.
Overall these results suggest that my model does not differ significantly from the true results (although my model is based on 4 seasons, which include last season)
My model says they have a 3% chance of making the playoffs
And on that note I can say with a bit of confidence that: New Jersey is probably not going to be in the playoffs (namely, they are statistically out of the playoffs at this point). Right now their win percentage is 23%. They're Pythagorean percentage sits at 18% (GF^2/(GF^2 + GA^2). I should mention, they have been a little unlucky in the neighborhood of -15 GF. Including these goals in their totals would only improve their winning percentage to 41%. Now with the injury to Parise they have an up hill battle for the rest of the season.
so you'd lay me 31-to-1 on the devils making the playoffs?
ReplyDeleteInteresting proposition. I'm not a big fan of betting (although I am a fan of putting money where your mouth is). Considering some of my concerns in the article, the odds I'd be willing to take is 18-1 (concerns being 2x as many teams in the bottom group made it then expected and N.J has been unlucky). Although it's my opinion that the Parise injury is a much bigger factor than my predictions.
ReplyDeleteYou don't make a lot of money taking "short" odds like these though
You got me checking my work a little more thoroughly though.
fair enough. i'll take the 18-to-1. what amount?
ReplyDelete$10 if N.J doesn't make it (for me)
ReplyDelete$180 if N.J makes it (for you)
Deal.
ReplyDeleteI know you're good for it, Chris, so I'll just bookmark this thread and revisit at the end of the season.
Bold prediction by you, imo.
Good luck. :)