East - Devils vs. Canes

N.J CAR # G EG S% G EG SV% Game 1: 4 4.6 92.9 1 1.4 91.3 Game 2: 1 2.8 92.3 2 2.6 96.4 Game 3: 3 3.1 93.1 2 2.9 90.3 Game 4: 3 2.7 90.2 4 4.1 88.9 Game 5: 1 4.3 100 0 4.7 97.7 Game 6: 0 3.4 89.5 4 3.8 100 Game 7: 3 3.1 82.6 4 2.3 90.3 Series [3-4] 15 24.0 92.2 17 21.8 93.8

Game 1: N.J killed Carolina in this game.
Game 2: Loss of their captain is huge. Looks like Carolina will try to make a series out of this.
Game 3: This is turning out to be a lot closer than I expected.
Game 4: Brodeur didn't look too happy.
Game 5: Amazing goaltending, but Brodeur wins.
Game 6: Didn't see that coming, Ward is outplaying Brodeur in this series.
Game 7: Who would've predicted that ending!

N.J CAR Winner Even Strength GF 2.56 2.45 EGF 2.56 2.6 GA 2.1 2.37 EGA 2.29 2.55 SV% 90.8% 90.7% Power Play GF 7.85 7.96 EGF 10.5 6.96 GA 0.68 1.76 EGA 0.42 0.87 SV% 88.7% 90%

Yawn! Can't say this series interests me in the least. This one should be easy for Brodeur... Some people might be mesmerized at the Hurricanes recent record, but as I explained: it doesn't matter. Should be low scoring, majority of the scoring should occur with the man advantage, so Carolina would be wise to stay out of the box.

Note: Brodeur only played half of the season series vs. Carolina (Weekes & Clemmensen played in 2 losses)

East - Capitals vs. Rangers

WSH NYR # G EG S% G EG SV% Game 1: 3 2.5 75.0 4 1.6 88.0 Game 2: 0 3.1 94.7 1 1.9 100 Game 3: 4 3.8 100 0 2.6 89.5 Game 4: 1 3.5 88.2 2 1.7 97.1 Game 5: 4 2.1 100 0 1.6 81.0 Game 6: 5 2.1 88.0 3 2.5 76.2 Game 7: 2 2.3 93.3 1 1.5 91.3 Series [4-3] 19 19.4 91.8 11 13.4 90.2

Game 1: Seriously, when will Theodore retire/quit? Why do teams keep signing him?
Game 2: Better goaltending, same result. The favorite has a long road ahead if they want to win.
Game 3: What a difference a real goaltender makes.
Game 4: Wow, is Ludqvist really that good? It's amazing Washington is losing this series.
Game 5: Washington has a good chance of a come-back...
Game 6:
Game 7: All TSN kept saying was how terrible Washington was doing, but in the end they were the better team.

WSH NYR Winner Even Strength GF 2.76 2.21 EGF 2.63 2.45 GA 2.36 2.44 EGA 2.16 2.4 SV% 89.1% 89.8% Power Play GF 6.92 5.88 EGF 7.26 6.35 GA 1.73 1.54 EGA 0.8 0.74 SV% 89% 92.8%

This is Washington's series to lose. The experience gained from last years short playoff series should do them good. They are a much better team compared to last year. Jose Theodore has a chance now to redeem himself, but if there's an early exit Theodore may never be a starting goaltender again. This should be a fun series to watch as there should be a lot of goals and decent back and forth action. Lundqvist has the opportunity now to prove he's a great goalie.

West - Sharks vs. Ducks

S.J ANA # G EG S% G EG SV% Game 1: 0 3.1 83.3 2 1.2 100 Game 2: 2 5.5 91.7 3 3.6 96.4 Game 3: 4 3.8 91.9 3 3.7 89.5 Game 4: 0 3.1 88.5 4 2.6 100 Game 5: 3 7.1 91.3 2 2.3 95.8 Game 6: 1 3.3 89.2 4 3.7 97.0 Series [2-4] 10 25.9 90.1 18 17.1 96.1

Game 1: Where's Thornton? Anaheim played hard and were rewarded, but had only 1.2 EG!
Game 2: Another lopsided affair where the weaker team gets the "W" as a result of amazing goaltending. Although Anaheim looked a lot more organized and control the front of their net.
Game 3: As I said, without great goaltending Anaheim doesn't stand a chance.
Game 4: The lost battle by Thornton that resulted in the 3-0 goal says it all.
Game 5: This was Hiller's game, too bad they lost
Game 6: Anaheim completes the upset. Thornton gives away the puck in the third again. And a lost icing racing and battle along the boards puts the final nail in the coffin.

S.J ANA Winner Even Strength GF 2.32 2.49 EGF 2.67 2.59 GA 2.09 2.33 EGA 2.18 2.43 SV% 90.4% 90.4% Power Play GF 10.7 8.78 EGF 9.75 10.8 GA 0.97 2.1 EGA 0.77 0.64 SV% 91.4% 90.2%

The Ducks are in an interesting spot: Giguere has been the playoff hero many times over (playoff stats: 33-17, 2.16GA, 93%). However, Hiller has been the better goalie this season, putting Anaheim in an awkward spot. If there's a goaltender conflict early in the series then this series could end very quickly. It looks like Hiller will start the series (he's played in the last 9 games), if he fails or struggles Giguere will quickly replace him and take over. Anaheim can't keep up with San Jose's offense so they will need great goaltending.

West - Flames vs. Hawks

CHI CGY # G EG S% G EG SV% Game 1: 3 1.8 93.3 2 3.0 83.3 Game 2: 3 3.5 94.4 2 3.6 91.4 Game 3: 2 3.4 85.2 4 2.7 94.1 Game 4: 4 2.5 73.7 6 1.9 84.0 Game 5: 5 2.3 93.3 1 1.5 78.3 Game 6: 4 1.5 97.6 1 4.2 80.0 Series [4-2] 21 15.0 91.1 16 16.9 86.7

CGY CHI Winner Even Strength GF 2.93 2.78 EGF 2.7 2.65 GA 2.73 2.2 EGA 2.3 2.45 SV% 88.1% 91% Power Play GF 7.13 6.92 EGF 8.73 7.41 GA 2.58 0.58 EGA 1.07 0.8 SV% 91.7% 90.7%

Kiprusoff has had a bad season to put it mildly, if he can return to his old form then this series is a lot closer (as you can see from the graphic above). The main difference between these two teams is goaltending. Huet & Khabibulin have been much better than Kiprosoff and Chicago has the added benefit that if one does bad or needs a rest they can play a different goalie (although you run the risk of swapping goalies each night). However, it looks like the Stanley Cup Champion (beat Calgary in 2003-2004) goaltender will start the series. I'm sure that will motivate Calgary!

Looking forward to Round II

vs. 37% 37% 26% vs. 37% 22% vs. 37% 26% 22% 15% vs. 37% vs. 26% 15% vs. 37% 26%

East - Penguins vs. Philly

PIT PHI # G EG S% G EG SV% Game 1: 4 3.2 96.0 1 2.5 87.5 Game 2: 3 4.3 94.3 2 3.5 93.0 Game 3: 3 2.4 85.7 6 3.5 87.5 Game 4: 3 2.8 98.1 1 5.3 92.9 Game 5: 0 2.6 82.4 3 1.7 100 Game 6: 5 4.0 88.9 3 2.7 90.0 Series [4-2] 18 19.3 92.2 16 19.2 91.7

Game 1: The Penguins demonstrate why they are the better team.
Game 2: Tough loss for Philly! Fleury is looking really good.
Game 3: Kelly Hrudy after the first period: "This is a game Pittsburgh's gonna win and it could be something like 6-2". Philadelphia now knows they can score!
Game 4: Looks like Fleury stole one.
Game 5: This is a very close series. (Didn't watch any of this game)
Game 6: Nice job.

PHI PIT Winner Even Strength GF 2.7 2.99 EGF 2.44 2.35 GA 2.55 2.53 EGA 2.56 2.38 SV% 90% 89.4% Power Play GF 8.67 6.31 EGF 7.2 7.56 GA 0.32 2.98 EGA 0.77 1.22 SV% 91.1% 90.4%

If you're looking for a series with lots of goals this would be the one. This series should last a while as well. If you want some decent pool picks this is your series. Don't expect too many shutouts.

West - Wings vs. Jackets

DET CBJ # G EG S% G EG SV% Game 1: 4 2.6 95.2 1 2.1 84.6 Game 2: 4 3.3 100 0 2.5 87.9 Game 3: 4 2.1 97.7 1 4.3 85.7 Game 4: 6 4.3 82.8 5 2.9 86.0 Series [4-0] 18 12.3 94.1 7 11.8 86.2

Game 1: Columbus was doing OK, until Detroit started scoring goals.
Game 2: And the scoring continues...
Game 3: Did Columbus really outplay Detroit? 1 game away from an annihilation.
Game 4: As WhoWins.com says, Columbus has been annihilated.

DET CBJ Winner Even Strength GF 3.01 2.63 EGF 2.69 2.49 GA 2.57 2.29 EGA 2.31 2.26 SV% 88.9% 89.9% Power Play GF 10.31 5.98 EGF 9.01 6.92 GA 0.55 1.37 EGA 0.54 0.83 SV% 87.8% 90%

The only question I ask about this series: can Detroit's amazing offense make up for their terrible goaltending?

East - Bruins vs. Canadiens

BOS MTL # G EG S% G EG SV% Game 1: 4 2.9 91.7 2 2.4 89.7 Game 2: 5 3.5 96.0 1 2.5 85.7 Game 3: 4 2.4 90.0 2 2.0 87.5 Game 4: 4 2.5 94.4 1 1.8 84.0 Series [4-0] 17 11.3 93.1 6 8.7 86.7

Game 1: Compared to how lopsided the match up is, Montreal did well.
Game 2: I think most people now believe it would take a miracle.
Game 3: Montreal has given up.
Game 4: Thank goodness this series is done, that was very sad.

BOS MTL Winner Even Strength GF 2.85 2.52 EGF 2.32 2.42 GA 1.89 2.58 EGA 2.38 2.63 SV% 92.1% 90.2% Power Play GF 9.44 7.44 EGF 7.79 8.51 GA 1.33 1.3 EGA 0.54 0.72 SV% 91.7% 90.1%

Who doesn't want another Boston-Montreal series?

The numbers make it look like Montreal has no chance of winning this series (although considering Boston's record 25% isn't bad - it's not impossible or even improbable).

Some people might look back to 2003-2004 when Montreal (7) beat Boston (2). However, Boston and Montreal had very similar goal differentials that year. Now Boston is +80 and Montreal is +2.

As in any series: If they can solve Thomas they have a chance.

West - Canucks vs. Blues

VAN STL # G EG S% G EG SV% Game 1: 2 3.0 95.0 1 2.0 93.3 Game 2: 3 2.7 100 0 2.9 92.6 Game 3: 3 2.1 90.5 2 2.1 85.7 Game 4: 3 3.4 95.2 2 4.2 91.2 Series [4-0] 11 11.2 95.5 5 11.2 91.1

Game 1: This was a close call for the Canucks. Both goalies played well.
Game 2: Luongo certainly was the difference.
Game 3: Won without a miraculous performance from Luongo.
Game 4: Didn't expect to win in 4, and I think the Canucks need the rest.

VAN STL Winner Even Strength GF 2.67 2.29 EGF 2.33 2.13 GA 2.2 2.54 EGA 2.34 2.19 SV% 90.6% 88.4% Power Play GF 6.3 8.56 EGF 6.65 6.85 GA 0.75 0.9 EGA 0.44 0.45 SV% 89.8% 89.7%

I'm not normally one to break up a season, but since Sundin has been on the team and Luongo has been healthy the Canucks have averaged 3.2 GF/game. The Canucks have also won 64% of their games since then and if you separate the games that were against playoff teams the offense goes way up: 3.6 GF/game.

I noticed the regular season games were high scoring, however considering St. Louis' anemic scoring and Luongo's goaltending I would think this series could be quite low scoring.

This all said: even if you ignore their recent history, the Canucks are +30 on the season and St. Louis is +0.

A few different predictions

I've collected a lot of data over the years. I now have results from 244 playoff games (3 seasons). Using past results I looked for factors that resulted in wins (of individual games not the series). Using the data I created two different models (EQ1 & EQ2). I wont be changing the predictions that are included with my series summary images (as the sample size for that model was much larger), this is just for those who are interested.

EQ1 EQ2 vs. 78.2% 71.4% vs. 79.8% 73.8% vs. 55.9% 41.7% vs. 63.4% 55.8% vs. 74.3% 53.5% vs. 70.3% 69.2% vs. 71.1% 64.3% vs. 64.2% 65.5%

EQ1 uses both "expected goals" and "actual goals" to predict playoff results
EQ2 uses only a team's "expected goals" to predict results.
The equations can be found on the bottom of this page.

Two teams that might be happy with the table above: Montreal & Calgary, by the second equation both teams have a lot better chance than many will give them credit for. (Boston has done really well this season largely due to amazing goaltending and outperforming their expected scoring rates). Calgary's expected goal differential is much better than Chicago's.

Explanation:

Notation: (all in #/game)
E = Expected
G = Goals
H = Home
A = Away
F = for (last letter)
A = against (last letter)

In order to predict the expected scoring rates I combine the home teams scoring rates with the away team goals against rates. (As per Alan Ryder's Poisson Toolbox p. 28):
Predicted "goals for" per game in a game where the home team scores at GFH and the away teams allows GAA (2.8 = average goals/game)
GF = GFH*GAA/2.8
and GA:
GA = GAH*GFA/2.8

Similarly for Expected goals:
EGF = EGFH*EGAA/2.8
and GA:
EGA = EGAH*EGFA/2.8

Using the above numbers and combining them with a Pythagorean expectation:
pct = EG_pct = EGF*EGF/(EGF*EGF+EGA*EGA)
G_pct = GF*GF/(GF*GF+GA*GA)
which can be used in equation 1 & 2 below:


Equation 2 effectively ignores the effects of goaltending, due to sample size (goaltending effects are not huge in comparison to luck effects...). The G_pct factor in EQ1 was statistically not significant (at about 80%).

If all the math is giving you a headache then you can enjoy the compiled figures in the table above and ignore the explanation.

Playoff Push - Does the record from February 1st matter?

Mirtle has a post on how teams have done since February 1^st. I thought I'd provide some additional information.

I would argue that the team's recent record is completely irrelevant. What matters most is how good they were for the entire season. The table above is hardly conclusive, I just took all the playoff teams that had a 60% or better record from February 1^st on and looked at how they did. The table above is the result of looking at three seasons. You should notice that 2005-2006 didn't have any teams with 60% or better record from February on.

The table shows that these teams Won 2 series and Lost 5 (29%).

Possible Playoff Matchups - 2009

vs. 51% 49% vs. 100% vs. 51% 49% vs. 51% 49% vs. 51% 49% vs. 100% vs. 51% 49% vs. 51% 49% vs. 100% vs. 100% vs. 100% vs. 100% vs. 100% vs. 100% vs. 100% vs. 100%