Predicted Standings for 2008-2009

Based on the expected offense from the tables presented in the other posts, this would be the expected standings. There seems to be a lot of volatility in the east, but the west appears to be business as usual (changes smaller than 10 are not really that significant)

Western Standings

N Team 2007 2008 D 1 Detroit Red Wings 115 113 -2 2 Anaheim Ducks 102 101 -1 3 San Jose Sharks 107 98 -9 4 Vancouver Canucks 88 94 6 5 Dallas Stars 97 94 -3 6 Colorado Avalanche 95 93 -2 7 Calgary Flames 94 90 -4 8 Minnesota Wild 98 89 -9 9 Chicago Blackhawks 88 89 1 10 Edmonton Oilers 88 88 0 11 Nashville Predators 91 85 -6 12 St. Louis Blues 79 79 0 13 Phoenix Coyotes 83 79 -4 14 Columbus Blue Jackets 80 78 -2 15 Los Angeles Kings 71 72 1

Eastern Standings

N Team 2007 2008 D 1 Washington Capitals 94 116 22 2 Pittsburgh Penguins 102 108 6 3 Montreal Canadiens 104 104 0 4 New Jersey Devils 99 101 2 5 New York Rangers 97 98 1 6 Buffalo Sabres 90 97 7 7 Tampa Bay Lightning 71 94 23 8 Ottawa Senators 94 93 -1 9 Florida Panthers 85 89 4 10 Philadelphia Flyers 95 88 -7 11 Carolina Hurricanes 92 88 -4 12 Boston Bruins 94 80 -14 13 Toronto Maple Leafs 83 80 -3 14 Atlanta Thrashers 76 77 1 15 New York Islanders 79 76 -3

I think it's worth saying I'm not very satisfied with the results, but I like the method. There are a few things I still need to work out, especially in terms of Crosby and Ovechkin's offense. I also need to look at Tampa a little bit closer ( they are expected to score 300 GF - a little bit unrealistic).

Southeast Expecations

Atlanta Thrashers GF GA Ilya Kovalchuk [0.95] Vyacheslav Kozlov [0.62] Todd White [0.52] 69 46 Colby Armstrong [0.49] Jason Williams [0.47] Robert Holik [0.41] 45 38 Eric Perrin [0.40] Erik Christensen [0.39] Marty Reasoner [0.35] 37 21 Bryan Little [0.28] Jim Slater [0.21] Chris Thorburn [0.17] 22 16 Tobias Enstrom [0.39] Ron Hainsey [0.31] 23 29 Niclas Havelid [0.23] Ken Klee [0.14] 12 27 Garnet Exelby [0.11] ??? [~0.05] 5 19 PK: 62 Lehtonen: -18 Hedberg: 8 213 248

Carolina Hurricanes GF GA Eric Staal [0.83] Ray Whitney [0.68] Sergei Samsonov [0.66] 71 44 Justin Williams [0.62] Rod Brind'amour [0.60] Matt Cullen [0.48] 56 34 Tuomo Ruutu [0.44] Scott Walker [0.42] Patrick Eaves [0.38] 41 17 Chad Larose [0.23] Ryan Bayda [0.21] ??? [~0.0.08] 17 13 Joni Pitkanen [0.47] Joseph Corvo [0.42] 29 32 Frantisek Kaberle [0.32] Dennis Seidenberg [0.20] 17 22 Tim Gleason [0.17] Tim Conboy [0.15] 10 15 PK: 59 Ward: 19 Backup: 5 241 261

Florida Panthers GF GA Nathan Horton [0.62] Cory Stillman [0.61] Richard Zednik [0.49] 56 45 Radek Dvorak [0.48] Stephen Weiss [0.47] Brett Mclean [0.42] 45 38 Rostislav Olesz [0.39] David Booth [0.35] Ville Peltonen [0.32] 35 21 Chad Kilger [0.28] Kamil Kreps [0.24] Gregory Campbell [0.13] 21 15 Jay Bouwmeester [0.38] Keith Ballard [0.33] 23 35 Mike Van ryn [0.32] Cory Murphy [0.27] 19 28 Nicholas Boynton [0.22] Karlis Skrastins [0.13] 11 17 PK: 61 Vokoun: -37 Anderson: -17 210 206

Tampa Bay Lightning GF GA Vincent Lecavalier [0.81] Martin St. louis [0.81] Mark Recchi [0.70] 76 43 Vaclav Prospal [0.66] Jussi Jokinen [0.56] Michel Ouellet [0.56] 58 28 Gary Roberts [0.54] Ryan Malone [0.53] Chris Gratton [0.50] 51 19 Radim Vrbata [0.49] Jeff Halpern [0.44] Brandon Bochenski [0.38] 43 13 Filip Kuba [0.37] Matthew Carle [0.35] 24 25 Paul Ranger [0.32] Alexandre Picard [0.25] 19 21 Shane O'brien [0.19] Mike Lundin [0.04] 8 14 PK: 59 Kolzig: 22 Ramo: 17 270 262

Washington Capitals GF GA Alexander Ovechkin [1.31] Nicklas Backstrom [0.82] Sergei Fedorov [0.70] 93 32 Alexander Semin [0.67] Michael Nylander [0.66] Viktor Kozlov [0.56] 62 32 Chris Clark [0.35] Brooks Laich [0.31] Tomas Fleischmann [0.28] 31 20 Boyd Gordon [0.21] Keith Aucoin [0.21] Donald Brashear [0.18] 20 10 Mike Green [0.42] Tom Poti [0.39] 27 26 Brian Pothier [0.30] Jeff Schultz [0.16] 15 21 Shaone Morrisonn [0.14] Milan Jurcina [0.13] 9 13 PK: 58 Theodore: -26 Johnson: -4 257 190

Northeast Expectations

Boston Bruins GF GA Marc Savard [0.84] Michael Ryder [0.60] Marco Sturm [0.51] 64 41 Peter Schaefer [0.43] Phil Kessel [0.43] David Krejci [0.42] 42 30 Chuck Kobasew [0.32] Per johan Axelsson [0.32] Milan Lucic [0.31] 31 19 Petteri Nokelainen [0.14] Vladimir Sobotka [0.12] Jeremy Reich [0.03] 10 11 Zdeno Chara [0.36] Dennis Wideman [0.34] 23 28 Andrew Ference [0.24] Matt Lashoff [0.16] 13 27 Aaron Ward [0.14] Shane Hnidy [0.10] 8 15 PK: 61 Thomas: -15 Backup: 5 191 222

Buffalo Sabres GF GA Jason Pominville [0.72] Derek Roy [0.71] Thomas Vanek [0.71] 70 43 Jochen Hecht [0.59] Drew Stafford [0.58] Maxim Afinogenov [0.56] 57 34 Tim Connolly [0.53] Ales Kotalik [0.52] Daniel Paille [0.35] 46 20 Paul Gaustad [0.32] Clarke Macarthur [0.31] Mathieu Darche [0.19] 27 13 Jaroslav Spacek [0.35] Toni Lydman [0.28] 21 33 Craig Rivet [0.25] Nathan Paetsch [0.23] 16 21 Henrik Tallinder [0.22] Andrej Sekera [0.15] 12 16 PK: 59 Miller: -7 Lalime: 1 249 233

Montreal Canadiens GF GA Alex Tanguay [0.81] Saku Koivu [0.79] Alex Kovalev [0.71] 76 39 Tomas Plekanec [0.58] Andrei Kastsitsyn [0.53] Christopher Higgins [0.52] 53 33 Siarhei Kastsitsyn [0.50] Guillaume Latendresse [0.34] Tom Kostopoulos [0.25] 36 19 Maxim Lapierre [0.24] Kyle Chipchura [0.23] Georges Laraque [0.21] 22 13 Andrei Markov [0.49] Roman Hamrlik [0.42] 30 32 Mathieu Dandenault [0.21] Francis Bouillon [0.20] 13 24 Michael Komisarek [0.13] Ryan O'byrne [0.12] 8 18 PK: 61 Price: -39 Denis: 7 238 207

Ottawa Senators GF GA Dany Heatley [1.05] Jason Spezza [1.01] Daniel Alfredsson [0.85] 95 43 Mike Fisher [0.46] Antoine Vermette [0.40] Dean Mcammond [0.40] 41 33 Chris Kelly [0.35] Shean Donovan [0.25] Christopher Neil [0.23] 27 20 Jarkko Ruutu [0.17] Nick Foligno [0.15] Cody Bass [0.12] 14 12 Andrej Meszaros [0.42] Chris Phillips [0.23] 21 31 Christoph Schubert [0.21] Anton Volchenkov [0.21] 14 24 Jason Smith [0.15] ??? [~0.05] 7 19 PK: 60 Gerber: -15 Auld: -8 219 218

Toronto Maple Leafs GF GA Nikolai Antropov [0.49] Alexander Steen [0.48] Jason Blake [0.48] 48 39 Alexei Ponikarovsky [0.41] Matthew Stajan [0.37] Mark Bell [0.37] 38 32 Bates (jon) Battaglia [0.33] Niklas Hagman [0.31] Boyd Devereaux [0.26] 30 23 Jamal Mayers [0.25] Jiri Tlusty [0.23] Mikhail Grabovski [0.22] 23 14 Tomas Kaberle [0.54] Bryan Mccabe [0.44] 32 32 Pavel Kubina [0.37] Ian White [0.27] 21 23 Carlo Colaiacovo [0.26] Jeff Finger [0.21] 15 18 PK: 64 Toskala: -3 Backup: 5 207 247

Atlantic Expectations

New Jersey Devils GF GA Patrik Elias [0.82] Zach Parise [0.61] Brian Gionta [0.60] 67 36 Jamie Langenbrunner [0.57] Brian Rolston [0.55] Dainius Zubrus [0.48] 52 31 Travis Zajac [0.41] John Madden [0.36] Jay Pandolfo [0.27] 34 18 David Clarkson [0.22] Michael Rupp [0.15] Rodney Pelley [0.05] 14 12 Paul Martin [0.36] John Oduya [0.20] 18 27 Mike Mottau [0.16] Andrew Greene [0.15] 10 23 Colin (john) White [0.15] Sheldon Brookbank [0.13] 9 16 PK: 61 Brodeur: -33 Backup: 5 204 196

New York Islanders GF GA Mike Comrie [0.61] Bill Guerin [0.48] Trent Hunter [0.46] 51 40 Michael Sillinger [0.37] Andy Hilbert [0.28] Richard Park [0.28] 31 31 Blake Comeau [0.23] Sean Bergenheim [0.22] Jeff Tambellini [0.16] 20 19 Frans Nielsen [0.09] Tim Jackman [0.06] Jeremy Colliton [0.02] 6 11 Mark Streit [0.47] Chris Campoli [0.33] 26 29 Frederick Meyer iv [0.23] Andy Sutton [0.21] 14 20 Radek Martinek [0.20] Bruno Gervais [0.16] 12 16 PK: 57 Dipietro: 7 Backup: 5 190 235

New York Rangers GF GA Scott Gomez [0.78] Chris Drury [0.70] Markus Naslund [0.69] 71 36 Nikolai Zherdev [0.59] Brandon Dubinsky [0.46] Petr Prucha [0.42] 48 26 Nigel Dawes [0.35] Dan Fritsche [0.27] Ryan Callahan [0.24] 28 17 Fredrik Sjostrom [0.23] Patrick Rissmiller [0.21] Aaron Voros [0.19] 21 12 Wade Redden [0.47] Paul Mara [0.35] 27 29 Michal Rozsival [0.34] Dmitri Kalinin [0.28] 20 23 Daniel Girardi [0.23] Marc Staal [0.11] 11 13 PK: 57 Lundqvist: -4 Valiquette: 1 226 209

Philadelphia Flyers GF GA Daniel Briere [0.77] Simon Gagne [0.71] Mike Richards [0.61] 69 50 Jeff Carter [0.53] Joffrey Lupul [0.52] Scott Hartnell [0.46] 50 39 Sami Kapanen [0.46] Michael Knuble [0.44] Scottie Upshall [0.40] 43 19 Glen Metropolit [0.34] Steve Downie [0.27] Arron Asham [0.24] 28 12 Kimmo Timonen [0.50] Braydon Coburn [0.31] 27 32 Randy Jones [0.30] Derian Hatcher [0.26] 18 28 Steve Eminger [0.17] Lasse Kukkonen [0.11] 9 15 PK: 56 Niittymaki: -17 Backup: 5 244 240

Pittsburgh Penguins GF GA Sidney Crosby [1.42] Evgeni Malkin [1.20] Petr Sykora [0.70] 109 38 Miroslav Satan [0.69] Jordan Staal [0.42] Ruslan Fedotenko [0.41] 50 32 Pascal Dupuis [0.38] Matt Cooke [0.33] Kris Beech [0.30] 33 18 Maxime Talbot [0.29] Tyler Kennedy [0.27] Jeff Taffe [0.23] 26 13 Sergei Gonchar [0.59] Ryan Whitney [0.53] 37 32 Darryl Sydor [0.35] Kristopher Letang [0.21] 18 22 Hal Gill [0.16] Mark Eaton [0.11] 9 14 PK: 55 Fleury: -18 Sabourin: 0 270 208

Central Expectations

St. Louis Blues GF GA Paul Kariya [0.99] Keith Tkachuk [0.80] Andy Mcdonald [0.63] 79 38 Lee Stempniak [0.48] David Perron [0.39] Dan Hinote [0.17] 34 28 Dwayne King [0.06] Cam Janssen [0.01] ??? [~0.0.08] 5 20 ??? [~0.0.08] ??? [~0.0.08] ??? [~0.0.08] 8 16 Erik Johnson [0.43] Eric Brewer [0.28] 23 29 Steve Wagner [0.22] Barret Jackman [0.21] 14 23 Jay Mckee [0.15] ??? [~0.05] 7 16 PK: 56 Legace: -6 Mason: 0 190 219

Nashville Predators GF GA Jason Arnott [0.75] Alexander Radulov [0.66] Jean-pierre Dumont [0.63] 67 42 Martin Erat [0.57] David Legwand [0.55] Radek Bonk [0.49] 53 34 Vernon Fiddler [0.29] Scott Nichol [0.19] Rich Peverley [0.18] 22 19 Jordin Tootoo [0.16] Jerred Smithson [0.15] Jed Ortmeyer [0.11] 14 14 Shea Weber [0.40] Dan Hamhuis [0.31] 23 31 Ville Koistinen [0.27] Ryan Suter [0.27] 18 25 Greg De vries [0.19] Greg Zanon [0.09] 9 16 PK: 56 Ellis: -16 Backup: 5 206 226

Detroit Red Wings GF GA Marian Hossa [0.88] Henrik Zetterberg [0.87] Pavel Datsyuk [0.87] 86 33 Tomas Holmstrom [0.45] Mikael Samuelsson [0.42] Johan Franzen [0.39] 41 21 Jiri Hudler [0.38] Daniel Cleary [0.36] Valtteri Filppula [0.32] 35 13 Darren Haydar [0.24] Kris Draper [0.22] Kirk Maltby [0.21] 22 11 Nicklas Lidstrom [0.54] Brian Rafalski [0.51] 34 20 Niklas Kronvall [0.38] Brad Stuart [0.36] 24 23 Brett Lebda [0.17] Andreas Lilja [0.12] 10 12 PK: 56 Conklin: -4 Osgood: 7 252 191

Columbus Blue Jackets GF GA Rick Nash [0.71] Kristian Huselius [0.61] Michael York [0.52] 60 34 Fredrik Modin [0.51] R.j. Umberger [0.48] Michael Peca [0.46] 48 32 Raffi Torres [0.38] Jason Chimera [0.33] Manny Malhotra [0.27] 32 19 Jiri Novotny [0.25] Andrew Murray [0.18] Craig Macdonald [0.12] 18 12 Christian Backman [0.25] Rostislav Klesla [0.23] 16 26 Mike Commodore [0.18] Jan Hejda [0.14] 10 21 Kris Russell [0.11] Ole-kristian Tollefsen [0.05] 5 15 PK: 55 Leclaire: 4 Norrena: 10 190 227

Chicago Blackhawks GF GA Patrick Kane [0.85] Jonathan Toews [0.80] Martin Havlat [0.76] 79 42 Robert Lang [0.51] Patrick Sharp [0.43] Andrew Ladd [0.37] 43 35 Dave Bolland [0.35] Petri Kontiola [0.23] Jack Skille [0.19] 25 18 Kris Versteeg [0.17] Craig Adams [0.15] Ben Eager [0.13] 15 16 Brian Campbell [0.44] Dustin Byfuglien [0.37] 27 31 Brent Sopel [0.37] Brent Seabrook [0.34] 23 25 Duncan Keith [0.31] Cameron Barker [0.28] 19 18 PK: 68 Khabibulin: -15 Huet: 5 231 242

Pacific Expectations

San Jose Sharks GF GA Joe Thornton [0.94] Patrick Marleau [0.65] Jeremy Roenick [0.65] 73 29 Jonathan Cheechoo [0.65] Milan Michalek [0.58] Joe Pavelski [0.47] 56 23 Ryane Clowe [0.44] Michael Grier [0.35] Devin Setoguchi [0.30] 36 15 Torrey Mitchell [0.19] Marcel Goc [0.18] Jody Shelley [0.07] 14 11 Dan Boyle [0.52] Robert Blake [0.44] 31 34 Christian Ehrhoff [0.32] Kyle Mclaren [0.26] 19 19 Marc-edouard Vlasic [0.21] Brad Lukowich [0.15] 12 13 PK: 65 Nabokov: 14 Backup: 5 241 228

Phoenix Coyotes GF GA Peter Mueller [0.63] Olli Jokinen [0.61] Shane Doan [0.59] 60 45 Steven Reinprecht [0.56] Martin Hanzal [0.44] Daniel Carcillo [0.34] 44 32 Daniel Winnik [0.26] Marcel Hossa [0.23] Joel Perrault [0.22] 23 18 Enver Lisin [0.16] Michael Zigomanis [0.16] Todd Fedoruk [0.16] 16 14 Ed Jovanovski [0.46] Derek Morris [0.42] 29 31 Zbynek Michalek [0.24] Keith Yandle [0.23] 15 22 Matt Jones [0.07] Kurt Sauer [0.07] 5 17 PK: 61 Bryzgalov: -21 Tellqvist: 11 192 231

Los Angeles Kings GF GA Anze Kopitar [0.90] Alexander Frolov [0.67] Jarret Stoll [0.52] 69 46 Patrick O'sullivan [0.50] Michal Handzus [0.50] Kyle Calder [0.48] 49 41 Dustin Brown [0.47] Derek Armstrong [0.43] Matt Moulson [0.27] 38 24 Brad Richardson [0.24] Raitis Ivanans [0.08] Matt Ellis [0.07] 13 12 Tom Preissing [0.37] Peter Harrold [0.12] 16 33 Jack Johnson [0.11] Matt Greene [0.06] 6 29 ??? [~0.05] ??? [~0.05] 3 19 PK: 67 Labarbera: -29 Ersberg: -8 194 235

Dallas Stars GF GA Brad Richards [0.86] Michael Modano [0.70] Mike Ribeiro [0.64] 72 34 Brenden Morrow [0.61] Jere Lehtinen [0.51] Sean Avery [0.42] 51 27 Loui Eriksson [0.34] Steve Ott [0.21] Joel Lundqvist [0.20] 25 15 Chris Conner [0.15] Krystofer Barch [0.07] ??? [~0.0.08] 10 13 Sergei Zubov [0.52] Philippe Boucher [0.33] 28 26 Matt Niskanen [0.28] Stephane Robidas [0.21] 16 19 Trevor Daley [0.17] Nicklas Grossman [0.07] 8 13 PK: 62 Turco: -7 Backup: 5 210 207

Anaheim Ducks GF GA Ryan Getzlaf [0.75] Brendan Morrison [0.66] Chris Kunitz [0.56] 65 39 Corey Perry [0.54] Rob Niedermayer [0.41] Todd Marchant [0.40] 44 32 Bobby Ryan [0.30] Samuel Pahlsson [0.25] Brad May [0.24] 26 16 Brian Sutherby [0.17] Travis Moen [0.15] Joakim Lindstrom [0.14] 15 12 Chris Pronger [0.58] Scott Niedermayer [0.48] 35 30 Mathieu Schneider [0.42] Francois Beauchemin [0.34] 25 25 Sean O'donnell [0.16] Kent Huskins [0.14] 10 15 PK: 61 Giguere: -27 Hiller: -22 220 190

Northwest Expectations

Last year I designed really complicated tables to try and calculate which teams would be successful. I tried to simplify things this year. I used 1 simple source for the data: HockeyDB. All I do is add up all the points per game (in their career) and multiply by the number of games per season and then divide by the number of points per goal (~2.7). There are a few minor adjustments for games played and age (young players get a boost, older players get a reduction). Teams without enough signed players are given a small amount for a marginal player. I should also thank Cory Brolund for his excellent free agent website.

I've added defense to the data. I've separated the even strength defense (to the right of the offense) for each line. I've done my best to predict the penalty killing. And then adjusted for goal tending.

Note: the number of points per game I used to calculated the expected offense is displayed in the brackets.

Vancouver Canucks GF GA Pavol Demitra [0.87] Daniel Sedin [0.63] Henrik Sedin [0.62] 70 35 Kyle Wellwood [0.52] Steve Bernier [0.44] Mason Raymond [0.37] 44 29 Taylor Pyatt [0.35] Ryan Kesler [0.30] Matt Pettinger [0.27] 30 18 Alexandre Burrows [0.21] Jason Jaffray [0.19] Jeff Cowan [0.17] 19 12 Mattias Ohlund [0.42] Sami Salo [0.37] 26 28 Kevin Bieksa [0.32] Alexander Edler [0.20] 17 22 Lukas Krajicek [0.20] Willie Mitchell [0.16] 12 16 PK: 62 Luongo: -16 Sanford: 7 218 214

Minnesota Wild GF GA Marian Gaborik [0.81] Owen Nolan [0.65] Andrew Brunette [0.61] 68 37 Pierre-marc Bouchard [0.58] Mikko Koivu [0.52] Eric Belanger [0.42] 50 29 Antti Miettinen [0.33] James Sheppard [0.20] Stephane Veilleux [0.20] 24 16 Benoit Pouliot [0.09] Derek Boogaard [0.03] ??? [~0.0.08] 7 15 Marek Zidlicky [0.52] Marc-andre Bergeron [0.42] 31 32 Kim Johnsson [0.37] Kurtis Foster [0.36] 24 20 Brent Burns [0.30] Martin Skoula [0.23] 17 15 PK: 55 Backstrom: 8 Harding: 3 221 232

Edmonton Oilers GF GA Ales Hemsky [0.70] Erik Cole [0.61] Sam Gagner [0.58] 62 42 Shawn Horcoff [0.56] Andrew Cogliano [0.51] Dustin Penner [0.48] 51 36 Robert Nilsson [0.42] Fernando Pisani [0.39] Ethan Moreau [0.30] 36 21 Kyle Brodziak [0.27] Gilbert Brule [0.20] Marc-antoine Pouliot [0.19] 22 12 Lubomir Visnovsky [0.52] Tom Gilbert [0.35] 29 34 Sheldon Souray [0.34] Steve Staios [0.19] 17 25 Denis Grebeshkov [0.18] Ladislav Smid [0.08] 9 16 PK: 56 Garon: -8 Roloson: 8 226 241

Colorado Avalanche GF GA Paul Stastny [0.98] Milan Hejduk [0.80] Ryan Smyth [0.68] 81 42 Wojtek Wolski [0.64] Marek Svatos [0.56] Tyler Arnason [0.50] 56 35 Darcy Tucker [0.50] Brian Willsie [0.28] T.j. Hensick [0.28] 35 21 Ian Laperriere [0.27] Ben Guite [0.22] Cody Mcleod [0.13] 20 14 John-michael Liles [0.45] Jordan Leopold [0.29] 24 30 Brett Clark [0.26] Scott Hannan [0.23] 16 25 Ruslan Salei [0.21] Adam Foote [0.20] 13 17 PK: 60 Budaj: 4 Raycroft: 17 245 265

Calgary Flames GF GA Jarome Iginla [0.86] Todd Bertuzzi [0.69] Mike Cammalleri [0.67] 73 41 Daymond Langkow [0.61] Craig Conroy [0.47] Matthew Lombardi [0.41] 49 29 Rene Bourque [0.36] Marcus Nilson [0.30] Curtis Glencross [0.29] 31 19 David Moss [0.28] Wayne Primeau [0.24] Dustin Boyd [0.22] 24 14 Dion Phaneuf [0.59] Adrian Aucoin [0.33] 30 28 Anders Eriksson [0.28] James Vandermeer [0.22] 16 23 Robyn Regehr [0.20] Cory Sarich [0.14] 11 14 PK: 54 Kiprusoff: 13 Backup: 5 234 242