Stanley Cup Final

DET PIT # G EG S% G EG SV% Game 1: 4 2.4 100 0 1.0 83.7 Game 2: 3 3.7 100 0 1.2 92.1 Game 3: 2 2.0 93.2 3 4.3 90.2 Series [2-1] 9 8.1 95.5 3 6.5 89.1

It takes more than good goaltending to win the Stanley Cup. In fact one might say it takes everything except goaltending. Detroit has gotten where they are with great team defense and great offense. Pittsburgh will need a lot of luck and hard work to win this series. Also, keep in mind that the west is better than the east. And the numbers below should convince any doubters that Detroit will should this series.

DET PIT Winner Even Strength GF 2.66 2.52 EGF 2.64 2.61 GA 1.83 2.15 EGA 1.71 2.47 SV% 89.3% 91.3% Power Play GF 8.46 6.67 EGF 8.69 6.16 GA 0.61 0.71 EGA 0.59 0.74 SV% 88.8% 89.5%

The winner column displays the dominant team in that category. The more pictures of the team's logo the more dominant the team is in that category All the non-percentage numbers are scoring rates. For example on the first row, the Detroit Red Wings have an even strength scoring rate of 2.66 goal for per hour. [GF = goals for, GA = goals against Exx = expected xx, SV% = shot quality neutral save percentage]. In the power play section in order to calculate the expected scoring rates I multiplied the goals for rate of one team and the goals against rate of the other and divide by the league average in order to get the expected rate for these two teams combined. So for example, the Detroit Red Wings have a power play goals for rate of 7.98 and the Pittsburgh Penguins have a penalty killing goals against rate of 6.89. So 7.98*6.89/6.5=8.46 [league average is 6.5]. Outperforming expected goals for is a sign of a lucky team. Outperforming expected goals against is a sign of either a good goaltender or luck as well. Each category listed has a different importance to winning, so be careful how you read these. Being able to score short-handed isn't going to win a lot of hockey games.

Stars vs. Wings

DET DAL # G EG S% G EG SV% Game 1: 4 2.7 86.0 1 0.7 85.5 Game 2: 2 3.0 86.0 1 0.7 93.5 Game 3: 5 3.1 86.9 2 1.5 84.2 Game 4: 1 2.3 86.6 3 2.2 95.7 Game 5: 1 1.8 91.5 2 2.3 94.6 Game 6: 4 3.0 93.0 1 1.4 86.9 Series [4-2] 17 15.9 88.9 10 8.8 89.5

Can Dallas shut down Detroit? As you can see from the table below and the percentages on table here, it will be a difficult series for Dallas to win. They'll need a lot of luck and a lot of hard work. Detroit keeps showing us they're the real deal this year.

DET DAL Winner Even Strength GF 2.66 2.54 EGF 2.64 2.17 GA 1.83 2.31 EGA 1.71 2.06 SV% 89.3% 88.8% Power Play GF 6.44 5.92 EGF 8.62 4.8 GA 1.33 0.59 EGA 0.48 0.68 SV% 88.8% 92%

The winner column displays the dominant team in that category. The more pictures of the team's logo the more dominant the team is in that category All the non-percentage numbers are scoring rates. For example on the first row, the Detroit Red Wings have an even strength scoring rate of 2.66 goal for per hour. [GF = goals for, GA = goals against Exx = expected xx, SV% = shot quality neutral save percentage]. In the power play section in order to calculate the expected scoring rates I multiplied the goals for rate of one team and the goals against rate of the other and divide by the league average in order to get the expected rate for these two teams combined. So for example, the Detroit Red Wings have a power play goals for rate of 7.98 and the Dallas Stars have a penalty killing goals against rate of 5.24. So 7.98*5.24/6.5=6.44 [league average is 6.5]. Outperforming expected goals for is a sign of a lucky team. Outperforming expected goals against is a sign of either a good goaltender or luck as well. Each category listed has a different importance to winning, so be careful how you read these. Being able to score short-handed isn't going to win a lot of hockey games.

Pens vs. Flyers

PIT PHI # G EG S% G EG SV% Game 1: 4 2.8 89.1 2 1.8 86.0 Game 2: 4 5.1 89.1 2 1.8 94.2 Game 3: 4 4.5 86.0 1 0.7 93.5 Game 4: 2 2.2 94.7 4 5.5 91.1 Game 5: 6 2.6 100 0 1.1 77.4 Series [4-1] 20 17.2 92.8 9 10.9 89.7

A well matched series. The only advantage Pittsburgh is seeing for the series is home ice advantage. Pittsburgh is more responsible defensively than Philadelphia. And the Flyers have a marginally better special teams compared to Pittsburgh. This is the series to watch in this round.

PIT PHI Winner Even Strength GF 2.52 2.38 EGF 2.61 2.52 GA 2.15 2.52 EGA 2.47 2.82 SV% 91.3% 91% Power Play GF 7.09 8.64 EGF 7.12 7.42 GA 1.74 0.51 EGA 1.17 1.01 SV% 89.5% 89.7%

The winner column displays the dominant team in that category. The more pictures of the team's logo the more dominant the team is in that category All the non-percentage numbers are scoring rates. For example on the first row, the Pittsburgh Penguins have an even strength scoring rate of 2.52 goal for per hour. [GF = goals for, GA = goals against Exx = expected xx, SV% = shot quality neutral save percentage]. In the power play section in order to calculate the expected scoring rates I multiplied the goals for rate of one team and the goals against rate of the other and divide by the league average in order to get the expected rate for these two teams combined. So for example, the Pittsburgh Penguins have a power play goals for rate of 7.36 and the Philadelphia Flyers have a penalty killing goals against rate of 6.26. So 7.36*6.26/6.5=7.09 [league average is 6.5]. Outperforming expected goals for is a sign of a lucky team. Outperforming expected goals against is a sign of either a good goaltender or luck as well. Each category listed has a different importance to winning, so be careful how you read these. Being able to score short-handed isn't going to win a lot of hockey games.

Philadelphia @ Montreal

MTL PHI # G EG S% G EG SV% Game 1: 4 2.3 92.5 3 3.9 83.0 Game 2: 2 2.1 89.1 4 3.6 90.7 Game 3: 2 2.9 81.6 3 1.6 93.2 Game 4: 2 3.2 93.0 4 4.2 93.9 Game 5: 4 4.2 86.8 6 3.7 90.7 Series [1-4] 14 14.7 89.6 20 17.0 90.7

Montreal gets another team they dominated in the regular season. Montreal should be prepared this time, however Philadelphia is a reasonable opponent and as you can see in the table below these teams are closely matched. Interestingly the two teams that went to game #7 will face off.

MTL PHI Winner Even Strength GF 2.48 2.38 EGF 2.33 2.52 GA 2.38 2.52 EGA 2.54 2.82 SV% 90.6% 91% Power Play GF 8.88 8.26 EGF 6.93 7.91 GA 0.55 0.72 EGA 1.1 1.32 SV% 90.6% 89.7%

The winner column displays the dominant team in that category. The more pictures of the team's logo the more dominant the team is in that category All the non-percentage numbers are scoring rates. For example on the first row, the Montreal Canadiens have an even strength scoring rate of 2.48 goal for per hour. [GF = goals for, GA = goals against Exx = expected xx, SV% = shot quality neutral save percentage]. In the power play section in order to calculate the expected scoring rates I multiplied the goals for rate of one team and the goals against rate of the other and divide by the league average in order to get the expected rate for these two teams combined. So for example, the Montreal Canadiens have a power play goals for rate of 9.22 and the Philadelphia Flyers have a penalty killing goals against rate of 6.26. So 9.22*6.26/6.5=8.88 [league average is 6.5]. Outperforming expected goals for is a sign of a lucky team. Outperforming expected goals against is a sign of either a good goaltender or luck as well. Each category listed has a different importance to winning, so be careful how you read these. Being able to score short-handed isn't going to win a lot of hockey games.

Dallas @ San Jose

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Up WWWLL @ VVHHV:
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 2-1 (.667)
- Whowins.
A 3-0 series has gone back to 3-2 only 11 times, with 2 complete come-backs.
If the lower ranked team got the 3-0 series lead initially there's been 1 come-back in 3 tries, but if the higher ranked team got the series lead there has been 1 come-back in 8 tries.

That said, San Jose was lucky to get out of that game with a win as you can see by the numbers below for game #5. I Don't expected that Turco will be that bad again and San Jose will likely not be as lucky.

As an aside: the NHL made the correct call for the goal that was kicked in the net by Morrow.

S.J DAL # G EG S% G EG SV% Game 1: 2 2.0 87.2 3 2.3 90.2 Game 2: 2 3.5 85.5 5 2.7 94.4 Game 3: 1 1.8 83.7 2 1.2 94.6 Game 4: 2 2.5 90.2 1 1.0 92.2 Game 5: 3 1.4 93.0 2 2.8 79.0 Series [2-3] 10 11.2 88.2 13 10.0 91.3

Another divisional match up. If Dallas can control what Calgary couldn't maybe they stand a chance. I don't know these teams well enough to say anything.

S.J DAL Winner Even Strength GF 2.17 2.54 EGF 2.88 2.17 GA 2.1 2.31 EGA 1.83 2.06 SV% 88.5% 88.8% Power Play GF 5.58 5.21 EGF 8.36 5.46 GA 1.51 0.95 EGA 0.52 0.9 SV% 91.3% 92%

The winner column displays the dominant team in that category. The more pictures of the team's logo the more dominant the team is in that category All the non-percentage numbers are scoring rates. For example on the first row, the San Jose Sharks have an even strength scoring rate of 2.17 goal for per hour. [GF = goals for, GA = goals against Exx = expected xx, SV% = shot quality neutral save percentage]. In the power play section in order to calculate the expected scoring rates I multiplied the goals for rate of one team and the goals against rate of the other and divide by the league average in order to get the expected rate for these two teams combined. So for example, the San Jose Sharks have a power play goals for rate of 6.92 and the Dallas Stars have a penalty killing goals against rate of 5.24. So 6.92*5.24/6.5=5.58 [league average is 6.5]. Outperforming expected goals for is a sign of a lucky team. Outperforming expected goals against is a sign of either a good goaltender or luck as well. Each category listed has a different importance to winning, so be careful how you read these. Being able to score short-handed isn't going to win a lot of hockey games.

Rangers @ Pennsylvania

PIT NYR # G EG S% G EG SV% Game 1: 5 3.3 86.0 4 2.8 85.2 Game 2: 2 3.4 100 0 1.7 97.1 Game 3: 5 3.1 88.7 3 2.6 84.2 Game 4: 0 1.8 95.9 3 4.8 100 Series [3-1] 12 11.6 92.6 10 11.9 90.7

Cant ever complain about another inter-divisional matchup. The season series was split and this should set this up as a great series. New York should give Pittsburgh a much bigger hand full than the team that decided they no longer wanted to play hockey any more. The table above might give the impression New York has better goaltending, but it's probably evenly matched up there. I'm not sure that New York can keep up with Pittsburgh's offense though.

PIT NYR Winner Even Strength GF 2.52 2.19 EGF 2.61 2.38 GA 2.15 2.04 EGA 2.47 2.06 SV% 91.3% 90.1% Power Play GF 6.56 6.52 EGF 6.89 7.4 GA 0.6 0.53 EGA 0.51 0.94 SV% 89.5% 90.2%

The winner column displays the dominant team in that category. The more pictures of the team's logo the more dominant the team is in that category All the non-percentage numbers are scoring rates. For example on the first row, the Pittsburgh Penguins have an even strength scoring rate of 2.52 goal for per hour. [GF = goals for, GA = goals against Exx = expected xx, SV% = shot quality neutral save percentage]. In the power play section in order to calculate the expected scoring rates I multiplied the goals for rate of one team and the goals against rate of the other and divide by the league average in order to get the expected rate for these two teams combined. So for example, the Pittsburgh Penguins have a power play goals for rate of 7.36 and the New York Rangers have a penalty killing goals against rate of 5.79. So 7.36*5.79/6.5=6.56 [league average is 6.5]. Outperforming expected goals for is a sign of a lucky team. Outperforming expected goals against is a sign of either a good goaltender or luck as well. Each category listed has a different importance to winning, so be careful how you read these. Being able to score short-handed isn't going to win a lot of hockey games.

Colorado @ Detroit

DET COL # G EG S% G EG SV% Game 1: 4 4.5 70.6 3 1.0 91.3 Game 2: 5 3.3 92.5 1 1.3 85.2 Game 3: 4 6.6 90.2 3 3.0 94.1 Game 4: 8 3.7 91.8 2 2.4 78.8 Series [4-0] 21 18.1 88.5 9 7.7 88.6

US Hockey network executives must be happy today. The classic American playoff series has returned for another season. Both teams are balanced offensively, but defensively Detroit has man handled Colorado all season long winning all 4 games and shutting them out 3 times.

DET COL Winner Even Strength GF 2.66 2.69 EGF 2.64 2.64 GA 1.83 2.41 EGA 1.71 2.63 SV% 89.3% 90.8% Power Play GF 8.39 4.82 EGF 9.34 5.82 GA 0.24 0.4 EGA 0.35 0.58 SV% 88.8% 90.3%

The winner column displays the dominant team in that category. The more pictures of the team's logo the more dominant the team is in that category All the non-percentage numbers are scoring rates. For example on the first row, the Detroit Red Wings have an even strength scoring rate of 2.66 goal for per hour. [GF = goals for, GA = goals against Exx = expected xx, SV% = shot quality neutral save percentage]. In the power play section in order to calculate the expected scoring rates I multiplied the goals for rate of one team and the goals against rate of the other and divide by the league average in order to get the expected rate for these two teams combined. So for example, the Detroit Red Wings have a power play goals for rate of 7.98 and the Colorado Avalanche have a penalty killing goals against rate of 6.84. So 7.98*6.84/6.5=8.39 [league average is 6.5]. Outperforming expected goals for is a sign of a lucky team. Outperforming expected goals against is a sign of either a good goaltender or luck as well. Each category listed has a different importance to winning, so be careful how you read these. Being able to score short-handed isn't going to win a lot of hockey games.