March 15, 2008
I removed a few minor factors from other teams that appeared to hurt rather than help the model. As a result, Detroits goaltending looks a lot worse (makes sense, since Hasek is 40+ and Osgood is not known as an amazing goalie). I was disappointed to DiPietro's numbers fall, but that's how it will have to be for now.
You can see the changes @ my site.
March 7, 2008
If all you care about are results than just look at the last row called average for the player you are interested in. 1.14 suggests the player scores (or has scored against him) 14% more goals then one would be expected when you consider who he plays with. Similarly, 0.86 suggest the player scores (or has scored against him) 14% fewer goals then one would expect when you consider who he plays with. Remember these are only for even strength. For example Daniel Sedin has 9% more goals then one would expect and 14% fewer goals against.
Here's the data:
St. Louis Blues
Detroit Red Wings
Columbus Blue Jackets
San Jose Sharks
Los Angeles Kings
New Jersey Devils
New York Islanders
New York Rangers
Toronto Maple Leafs
Tampa Bay Lightning
A quick explanation of the short forms:
- Time% - this represents the percentage of the row player's ice time that column player played with the row player. [(row and column time)/(row time)]
- +% - this represents the percentage of the row player's goals for that column player had with the row player [(row and column goals for)/(row goals for)]
- -% - this represents the percentage of the row player's goals against that column player had with the row player [(row and column goals against)/(row goals against)]
- +R = +%/Time%
- -R = -%/Time%
- Time measured in seconds.
Since my previous article about the Eastern playoff race two teams predicted to have an easy time getting in have tanked. Ottawa has gone 3-8 (2-3 in OT) and Philadelphia has gone 5-9 (1-3 OT), however Canadiens and the Devils have now statistically secured their spot (>95% chance they'll make the playoffs if every game were a coin toss) and the Penguins are one win away from the same thing. Ottawa still stands an excellent chance of making the playoffs, but Philadelphia has joined the bubble teams.
Rangers and Bruins are pretty close to being locked in as my numbers show >90% chance of making the playoffs.
The Bubble teams
Bruins - As long as Thomas doesn't start they might be ok. They're having major issues, but they don't need to be amazing to make the playoffs, just get by so I don't see them falling out at this point.
Flyers - 7 losses in a row will take you from a playoff spot to almost out. After such a great start they now have a 25% chance of missing the playoffs. Still 75% chance of making it isn't that bad.
Hurricanes - Just have to win the division
Sabres - Odds don't look so good for them. They'll have to have a great March to even have a chance. (30% chance to make playoffs)
Washington - Must catch Hurricanes. They had a good chance of making the playoffs until Carolina acquired Corvo (9 points in 11 games), then it was over...
The rest are out!
There are two Boston - Buffalo games at the end of season, for Buffalo it could come down to having to win both of those games.
There are also two Carolina - Washington games left to be played at the end of the season.
There are four teams that are currently guaranteed to make the playoffs: Sharks, Stars, Wings, Ducks. [Note: Ducks are 16-8 (3-2 OT) since Janaury 1st]
Bubble teams [Northwest plus Chicago and Nashville minus Oilers]
Flames, Minnesota, Avalanche, Canucks - It's anyone's guess as to which of these four teams will make the playoffs, however keep in mind there are about 7 game in the last three weeks for each of these teams against each other. The most likely situation is that 3 out of these 4 are in.
Nashville - Need to pick it up if they want to catch the Northwest.
Chicago - I'm amazed they're still in the race. Still have a long way to go, but 3 wins in a row against strong teams is a great start.
March 4, 2008
This got me wondering, how many greater than 40 shot shutouts there are in a regular season?
Since I've been collecting data there's been less than 10. What's interesting is the goalies who have done it aren't what most would consider the top 10 goalies in the NHL (Anderson is just a backup).
2003 - 2004
Aubin: 4-0 W vs. Dallas [45 Shots]
Luongo: 1-0 W vs. Columbus [42 shots]
2005 - 2006
Johnson: 1-0 W vs. Ottawa [46 shots]
Luongo: 5-0 W vs. Washington [44 Shots]
Thomas: 5-0 W vs. Ottawa [44 Shots]
2006 - 2007
Thomas: 3-0 W vs. Toronto [44 Shots]
Norrena: 3-0 W vs. Colorado [42 Shots]
Mason: 1-0 W vs. Colorado [42 Shots]
2007 - 2008
Anderson [53 Shots]
Anderson stopped 53 shots in a 1-0 victory over the Islanders on Sunday, the most in a shutout since shots on goal started being kept in the 1955-56 season.
Since 1989-90, it's the most saves in consecutive shutouts; current Wing Dominik Hasek made 75 saves for Buffalo in December 1997, according to STATS LLC.
- freep.com -
Anderson was drafted in the third round and not expected to be much more than a backup. However, in his short stint in the NHL [73 games]. His .894 is decent for such a young goalie. And it's worth noting that in his bad year with Chicago (29 games: 0.886 Save%) he wasn't as bad as his statistics suggest as Chicago isn't exactly the most defensively responsible team.
Anderson has now stopped 133 of last 134 shots he's faced in the last three games.